Title:
1Currency Board Systems and Hong Kongs Evolving
ArrangementsProfessor Tsang Shu-kiDepartment
of EconomicsHong Kong Baptist Universitywww.skts
ang.com A presentation at the Central
Banking CourseHong Kong Monetary Authority29
September 2009
2Outline of the talk (1)
- How can an exchange rate be fixed?
- History of currency boards
- Classical currency boards
- Classical currency boards and modern monetary
economy - Modern currency boards and the AEL Model
3Outline of the talk (2)
- Hong Kongs currency board system before and
after the seven technical measures of 9/1998 - Hong Kongs currency board system and the three
refinements of 5/2005 - The prospects for currency boards
- References
4I. How can an exchange rate be fixed?
(1)
- Basically there are two ways to do so, assuming
that a fixed exchange rate regime is desirable
(which in itself is a separate issue). - Government controls and intervention
- Foreign exchange controls e.g. China and
Malaysia. - Foreign exchange market intervention by the
central bank difficult for an economy with large
capital flows, e.g. Bank of England in 1992.
5I. How can an exchange rate be
fixed? (2)
- Market-driven methods
- The Gold Standard (?????) late 19th Century and
early 20th Century - Currency Boards (???) previously mainly in
British colonies now in Hong Kong, Estonia,
Lithuania, Bulgaria etc. (Argentina adopted the
system in 1991 but abandoned it in early 2002.)
6I. How can an exchange rate be fixed?
(3)
- Both II (a) and (b) depend on self-interested
market force to fix the exchange rate, without
the need for government controls or intervention.
The key activity is arbitrage (??). If the prices
for the same product in two sub-markets differ
from each other, then any market participant can
buy the product at a lower price in one
sub-market, and sell the product in the other at
a higher price. A profit will be obtained at no
risk. As many market participants perform similar
arbitrage, the two prices should equalise,
provided that the transaction cost is negligible.
7I. How can an exchange rate be
fixed? (4)
- e.g. If A and B are functional or geographical
sub-markets of the same product and PA lt PB,
then arbitrage of buying low in A and selling
high in B can be performed to obtain profit at no
risk - Buy low in A Sell high in B
PA
PB
8I. How can an exchange rate be
fixed? (5)
- If the price, say PA, in one sub-market can be
firmly locked, because of sufficient reserves of
the party that fixes it, the price in the other
sub-market, PB, will converge to PA, subject to
the transaction cost (????). That was how the
Gold Standard worked. That is how the currency
board system is supposed to work, although A and
PA refer to a different component and its price
in the monetary base (????).
9II. History of currency boards (1)
- The first currency board was set up in Mauritius
in the 19th Century to be exact 1849. Dozens of
economies---many former colonies of Britain, e.g.
Falkland Islands, Malaya, Singapore,---adopted
the system. It worked well in fixing their
exchange rates.
10II. History of currency boards (2)
11III. Classical currency boards (1)
- The idea is surprisingly simple. A currency
board issues currency notes (paper money), and
trivially coins, with 100 per cent foreign
reserves backing at a fixed exchange rate. This
represents a strong commitment to economic
discipline (????). Any holder of paper money
therefore rests assured that he can exchange his
notes into foreign currency at the fixed rate.
12III. Classical currency boards (2)
- In a modern financial system, people hold much
more than paper money. Bank deposits typically
exceed currency notes by ten to twenty times. No
currency boards can have reserves that fully
match bank deposits. Hong Kong's foreign
currency reserves (being the 8th largest in the
world) are about 41 of the total amount of notes
and coins and deposits in Hong Kong dollar.
13III. Classical currency boards (3)
- How is the exchange rate of bank deposits fixed?
Like the gold standard, it is through arbitrage.
First, if there is speculation against the
currency, funds will flow out of the economy and
domestic interest rates will rise. This should
attract back the funds and the exchange rate can
be stabilised. Such a phenomenon is called
specie flow, or interest rate arbitrage (????).
14III. Classical currency boards (4)
- However, in a time of crisis, it is doubtful
whether higher interest rates alone could fix the
exchange rate. Hence a more important form of
arbitrage, i.e. currency/exchange rate arbitrage
(????), is necessary. Since the exchange rate of
paper money is fixed, the exchange rate of bank
deposits has to follow suit. Any rate
differential gives rise to profitable activity of
cash arbitrage (????), that closes the gap.
15III. Classical currency boards (5)
- Take Hong Kongs system since 1983 as a
theoretical example. Since HK notes are issued
against certificates of indebtedness (CIs) backed
by US at the rate of 7.80, if the market rate of
deposit weakens to say 8.00 against the US
dollar, anyone can theoretically withdraw cash
from his HK dollar deposit account, surrender the
paper money through the NIBs or other banks to
the "currency board" (the Exchange Fund) and get
US at the fixed but stronger rate of 7.80.
16III. Classical currency boards (6)
- With HK 7.8 million in cash, he will be given
US 1 million. By selling the US 1 million in
the market, he fetches HK 8 million. So he
obtains a profit of HK 200,000. That is
arbitrage, risk-free (???), except that there may
be transaction costs. Many others will want to do
the same. The selling pressure on the US dollar
will push the market rate back to 7.80, i.e.,
equalising prices in the two sub-markets (the
cash market and the deposit market).
17III. Classical currency boards (7)
- In sum, there are three anchors for a classical
currency board (1) economic discipline because
of the 100 foreign reserves requirement for the
issuance of currency (so theoretically paper
money cannot be increased without a balance of
payments surplus) (2) specie flow in the form of
interest arbitrage and (3) exchange rate (cash)
arbitrage that binds the spot exchange rate. - As illustrated in Diagram 1, these three anchors
reinforce one another.
18Classical currency boards (8)
- Diagram 1 tripod for a classical CB to fix
the exchange rate
Full reserves cover and economic discipline
Specie flow
Cash arbitrage
19IV. Classical currency boards and modern monetary
economy (1)
- The inefficiency of cash arbitrage in a modern
monetary economy is however a big problem. In HK,
for example, there are only about 7 dollars of
cash for every 100 dollars of bank deposit.
Moreover, just 50 cents of the cash are in the
hands of banks. - If people engage actively in converting their
deposits into cash to do arbitrage, it will be
equivalent to a bank run.
20IV. Classical currency boards and modern monetary
economy (2)
- Since the establishment of the linked exchange
rate system, there has been very little, if at
all, cash arbitrage activity. - Between 1983 and 1998, the link was defended with
a combination of market interventions including
direct foreign exchange operations and
manipulation of liquidity and interest rates.
21V. Modern currency boards and the AEL Model (1)
- Argentina, Estonia and Lithuania adopted
varieties of the currency board system in 1991,
1992 and 1994 respectively. I have dubbed them
as the AEL Model (?????). Though latecomers, all
three AEL countries used an improved version of
the system. It overcame the problem of cash
movements for arbitrage, with which Hong Kong was
struggling.
22V. Modern currency boards and the AEL Model (2)
- They instituted a reserves system whereby each
bank had an account with the central bank, in
which any reserves for notes and deposits as well
as the clearing balances were kept. The central
bank guaranteed the full convertibility of all
the claims of each bank, at the fixed exchange
rate. In effect, the convertibility undertaking
(????)covers the whole monetary base (??????),
i.e. essentially all the domestic liabilities of
the central bank, and not only cash. This set-up
bypassed the problem of moving cash around for
arbitrage.
23V. Modern currency boards and the AEL Model (3)
- Under such a system, no banks will dare quote an
exchange rate that deviates from the official
rate, say 7.80. If Bank A quotes a rate of 8.00,
Bank B can immediately sell US 1 million to it,
fetching HK 8 million, with an instruction that
Bank A transfers the amount to its account at the
central bank, which will convert HK 8 million
into US 1.026 million for Bank B at the fixed
rate of 7.80. A profit of US26,000 then goes to
Bank B. Other banks will also be jumping at the
arbitrage opportunity if Bank A does not change
its quote.
24V. Modern currency boards and the AEL Model (4)
- Note that no cash movements are involved in all
these electronic transactions (????), as the
central bank plays the role of settling arbitrage
activities between banks by providing the
necessary foreign reserves. The market exchange
could only deviate from the official rate for the
small amount of transaction costs involved, if at
all. - With this improved currency board system,
Argentina, Estonia and Lithuania were able to
ensure 100 per cent stability in their spot
exchange rates.
25V. Modern currency boards and the AEL Model (5)
- In 1995, Argentina faced serious crises
- 20 per cent of bank deposits were lost in less
than three months - sixty banks folded up
- economic growth rate was a negative 4.6 and
- unemployment shot up to 16.
- Yet the spot market exchange rate adhered
strictly to the official rate (of 1 peso against
1 US).
26V. Modern currency boards and the AEL Model (6)
- The same miracle occurred in Lithuania. A
banking crisis broke out in December 1995 - The nation's two largest banks were closed.
- Deposits fell by 15 in the first quarter of
1996. - Yet the official rate of 4 litas against 1 US
dollar was not challenged at all.
27VI. Hong Kongs currency board before and after
the 7 technical measures (1)
- Between 1984 and April 1998, the Hong Kong
currency board system did not behave according to
the theory of the classical currency board. The
key problem was that there was no effective
currency arbitrage mechanism. Cash-based
arbitrage was a non-starter, because it
represented a very small, and increasingly small,
of total money supply. There was simply very
little cash to use for arbitrage.
28VI. Hong Kongs currency board before and after
the 7 technical measures (2)
- Other than the CIs, there were no explicit
reserves backing or convertibility undertaking.
As a result, currency arbitrage outside cash
could not be carried out. The monetary authority
had to depend on the manipulation of interbank
liquidity and interest rates, as well as outright
intervention in the foreign exchange market to
defend the Hong Kong dollar. Some would call that
central banking in disguise.
29VI. Hong Kongs currency board before and after
the 7 technical measures (3)
- In the meantime, HK embarked on a process of
strengthening monetary control. In 1988, the
Accounting Arrangements were imposed, giving the
monetary authority an indirect handle on banking
liquidity. In the 1990s, the issuance of EFBNs
(Exchange Fund bills and notes), the setting up
of the LAF (liquidity adjustment facility), and
the eventual establishment of the HKMA (Hong Kong
Monetary Authority) were key milestones.
30VI. Hong Kongs currency board before and after
the 7 technical measures (4)
- The HKMA made it known that it would defend the
Hong Kong dollar by having flexible ways to
manipulate the monetary base and to influence
interest rates. - Mr. Andrew Sheng, then Deputy Chief Executive of
the HKMA, said on the heel of the Mexican crisis,
.... in recent years the HKMA has introduced
various reforms to its monetary management tools,
or more aptly, our monetary armoury, to maintain
exchange rate stability.
31VI. Hong Kongs currency board before and after
the 7 technical measures (5)
- ... As was seen in January (1995), our
determination to use the interest rate tool was
sufficient to deter further speculation against
the HK dollar. In fact, currently, the HK dollar
is at a stronger level than it was at 1994 year
end. (Sheng, 1995, p.60) To the extent that the
HKMA intervenes through the use of foreign
exchange swaps, any increase in the monetary base
is fully backed by foreign exchange. We use a
whole range of instruments in influencing the
level of interbank liquidity to manage interbank
interest rates, and consequently, maintain
exchange rate stability. (p.61)
32VI. Hong Kongs currency board before and after
the 7 technical measures (6)
- In October 1997, the Hong Kong dollar suffered a
strong speculative attack. Doubts were cast on
the nature and the robustness of Hong Kongs
currency board. A controversy arose concerning
whether and to what extent the HKMA did intervene
in the markets on 23 October 1997, and was
therefore responsible for the unprecedented high
interest rates---with overnight interbank rates
going up to 280 at one point.
33VI. Hong Kongs currency board before and after
the 7 technical measures (7)
- In April 1998, the HKMA announced a commitment
not to actively manage the clearing balance of
the banking system to defend the exchange rate
(FSB, 1998, paras. 3.36-3.41 Annex 3.5), the
HKMA would keep to the rule of automatic
adjustment. - However, the HKMA reserved the option of
discretionary intervention to defend the exchange
rate near the 7.80 level.
34VI. Hong Kongs currency board before and after
the 7 technical measures (8)
- Diagram 2 The tripod for HKs CB after April
1998
Full reserves cover and economic discipline
Discretionary intervention near 7.80
Specie flow
35VI. Hong Kongs currency board before and after
the 7 technical measures (9)
- The intervention in the stock and futures markets
by the Hong Kong government in August 1998
touched off a huge controversy. On 5 September
1998, the HKMA announced seven technical measures
(??????) to strengthen the link. These measures
can actually be grouped into two categories (1)
the convertibility undertaking (CU) that banks
could exchange their Hong Kong dollar balances
with the HKMA into US dollars at the fixed
exchange rate of 7.75 and (2) the replacement of
the Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) by a
formal Discount Window (with no penalties against
frequent users).
36VI. Hong Kongs currency board before and after
the 7 technical measures (10)
- The first move means that the coverage of
convertibility was effectively extended from bank
notes to the whole monetary base. The Discount
Window, on the other hand, enlarged the monetary
base. As said above, a system of convertible
reserves is the core mechanism in the AEL
(Argentina, Estonia and Lithuania) Model of
modernised currency board arrangements. The new
tripod of CB that the HKMA instituted in
September 1998 can be depicted as in Diagram 3.
37VI. Hong Kongs currency board before and after
the 7 technical measures (11)
- It was a partial adoption of the AEL model. The
CU was one-way (??????) (on the weak side) only,
but currency arbitrage ensured that the 7.80
fixed rate could not be breached. Further tidying
up of the system since then included the 500-day
shift of the CU rate from 7.75 to 7.80, the
increase in the transparency of currency board
operations and the changes in the transferability
and convertibility among the components of the
monetary base etc.
38VI. Hong Kongs currency board before and after
the 7 technical measures (12)
- Diagram 3 The tripod for HKs CB after
September 1998
Full reserves cover and economic discipline
Oneway Convertibility Undertaking at 7.80
Specie flow
39VII. Hong Kongs currency board and the three
refinements (1)
- Since late 2003, speculative pressure on a
revaluation of the Chinese renminbi rose and
there were large inflows into Hong Kong, leading
to near zero short term interest rates, large
aggregate balances and strong spot rates for the
HK dollar (at one point to about 7.70).
40VII. Hong Kongs currency board and the three
refinements (2)
- The very low interest rates failed to generate
sufficient and effective interest arbitrage to
offset the revaluation pressure, i.e. to weaken
the exchange rate to the 7.80 level supposedly as
a result of outflow of funds. - This was the reverse of the difficulty
experienced before the seven technical measures
of September 1998. Then very high interest rates
were not powerful enough in strengthening the HK
dollar against devaluation pressure supposedly
through attracting inflow of funds. - Hence a two-way CU (??????) seemed necessary.
41VII. Hong Kongs currency board and the three
refinements (3)
- On May 18, 2005, the HKMA introduced the three
refinements (??????) - a strong-side Convertibility Undertaking by the
HKMA to buy US dollars from licensed banks at
7.75 - the shifting over 5 weeks of the existing
weak-side Convertibility Undertaking by the HKMA
to sell US dollars to licensed banks from 7.80 to
7.85, so as to achieve symmetry around the Linked
Rate of 7.80
42VII. Hong Kongs currency board and the three
refinements (4)
- within the zone defined by the levels of the
Convertibility Undertakings (the "Convertibility
Zone"), the HKMA may choose to conduct market
operations consistent with Currency Board
principles. These market operations shall be
aimed at promoting the smooth functioning of the
Linked Exchange Rate System, for example, by
removing any market anomalies that may arise from
time to time. - With these three refinements, the latest currency
board system can be depicted as follows
43VII. Hong Kongs currency board and the three
refinements (5)
- Diagram 4 The tripod for HKs CB after May
2005
Full reserves cover and economic discipline
Twoway Convertibility Undertaking at 7.75 and
7.85
Specie flow
44VII. Hong Kongs currency board and the three
refinements (6)
- The wide corridor of 7.75-7.85 The
convertibility zone (????) is regarded as very
wide by some commentators but vulnerable to
speculation by others. In my article Liquidity
management, two-way CU ., I discussed the
possibility of a powerful speculator pushing the
exchange rate up and down the corridor of 50
pips (http//www.sktsang.com/ArchiveI/Tsang021201
.pdf)
45VII. Hong Kongs currency board and the three
refinements (7)
- From this perspective, a two-way CU with no
spread would kill its fun. The problems that
this generates are familiar. The foreign exchange
market in HKD/USD will be displaced, leading to
layoffs. (Some could argue that it is a matter of
sacrificing private interests for the sake of the
public good.) Moreover, imagine a CU with no
spread and a near-zero AB in an international
financial centre. I cant honestly recommend it
as a solution and I didnt, especially given
Hong Kongs post-1998 developments.
46VII. Hong Kongs currency board and the three
refinements (8)
- What is the alternative? Interestingly, we have
to travel some distance to find it. A
convertibility zone of hundreds of pips would
mean that any speculating party, in spite of its
market power, faces a relatively spacious
corridor and the risk and cost of his actions
are increased. - See Tsang Shu-ki, The convertibility zone and
operations to remove market anomalies
(www.sktsang.com/ArchiveI/Convertibility zone and
anomalies.pdf)
47VII. Hong Kongs currency board and the three
refinements (9)
- I remember long time ago I used to play
one-a-side (plastic) football games with my
younger brother in the narrow corridor of our old
home. The goals were simply conceived to exist
at either end of the corridor, but long-range
shooting was forbidden. Being physically
stronger, I always resorted to the ploy of
kicking the ball to one side and then speeding
past him on the other to collect the ball back
after its rebound from the wall. The rest was
peanut.
48VII. Hong Kongs currency board and the three
refinements (10)
- What if the corridor had been quite wide? The
rebound from the wall, from whether the left or
the right, would have taken longer to reach me.
So my little brother would have had time to turn
around and chase the ball almost on a par with
me. I would not have had the easy job of rushing
it towards an open goal. - A convertibility zone is a trade-off between
stability as well as credibility on the one hand,
and liquidity and flexibility on the other. - This is a reality for the CBA in Hong Kong, which
is an international financial centre with huge
daily capital flows. Too rigid a system would
mean that any pressure cannot be shared by
several buffer variables.
49VII. Hong Kongs currency board and the three
refinements (11)
- However, a consequence of this flexibility is
the phenomenon of multiple equilibria among the
spot exchange rate, the interest rate and the
aggregate balance. And there is no
mean-reverting tendency towards 7.80 as our
linked exchange rate. - In a period of global financial disturbances from
outside, these non-reverting phenomena involving
different variables are going to become more
pronounced. In any case, the currency board
system in HK would probably remain intact. Any
cost, if at all, would be borne by other economic
variables.
50 51(No Transcript)
52VII. Hong Kongs currency board and the three
refinements (12)
- In the aftermath of the latest financial tsunami,
the aggregate balance has risen to historically
unprecedented levels, with interest rates falling
to near zero. Yet the exchange rate has been
consistently strong, close to the CU of 7.75.
Actually the CU has been triggered on quite a
number of occasions. - This is a testimony to the robustness of the
currency board system in Hong Kong. - One risk is of course that there might be a
drastic swing to the weak-side CU of 7.85, if
internal and/or external shocks arise.
53VIII. The prospects for currency boards (1)
- The currency board system is supposed to be the
most disciplined and transparent fixed exchange
rate regime in the world. - Through arbitrage in a situation of sufficient
reserves covering the monetary base and sound
banking, the efficiency risk of the spot exchange
rate is largely eliminated. - However, the systemic risk still remains.
54VIII. The prospects for currency boards
(2)
- Systemic risk refers to the risk of the system
being abandoned not because the spot exchange
rate cannot be fixed, but as a result of the
economic pains associated with a misaligned
exchange rate or very weak economic fundamentals
(e.g. Argentina), and of any decision based on
politics. Risk premium will be reflected in
interest rates and forward exchange rates.
Argentina was forced to abandon the system in
early 2002.
55(No Transcript)
56VIII. The prospects for currency
boards (3)
- The beginning of the end for the AEL Model?
Estonia and Lithuania both became a member of
the EU in 2004. Both then joined the Exchange
Rate Mechanism II (ERM II) and officially stated
their objective to adopt the euro soon after the
mandatory minimum requirement of two years.
Estonia has been maintaining the currency board
arrangement with a fixed rate of one euro to
15.6466 Estonian kroons, while Lithuanias
currency has been pegged at the rate of 3.4528
litas per euro.
57VIII. The prospects for currency boards
(4)
- However, the process is nothing automatic. Both
have been on the watch list by the European
Central Bank on the basis of convergence criteria
and conditions for final accession to the euro
area, i.e. the replacement of their own national
currencies by the euro. Estonia's effort has been
hindered by failing to meet the inflation target
(a nominal convergence criterion) set by the EU
(Eesti Pank, Estonia's National Changeover
Plan, July 2009, www.eestipank.info/pub/en/EL/ELi
it/euro/eplaan_1.pdf - Lithuania has been bothered by a similar problem,
and according to the current data, the most
favourable period for Lithuania to join the euro
area will begin from 2010. (Lietuvos Bankas,
Adoption of the Euro in Lithuania,
www.lb.lt/eng/euro/index.htm.
58VIII. The prospects for currency boards
(5)
- The debate between a fixed exchange rate system
and a floating rate regime is a long standing
one, and unlikely to be solved any time soon. - In between, there can of course be basket peg,
crawling peg, target zone, managed float,
and their various combinations. - The purists would argue for corner solutions
either hard peg or clean float, as the
various combinations suffer from a lack of
credibility.
59VIII. The prospects for currency boards
(6)
- A small open economy with very flexible asset and
factor markets will find it beneficial to adopt a
fixed rate because the certainty will promote
long term investment and facilitate structural
changes. - For developing and emerging markets, it will help
to impose monetary discipline and promote the
development of long-term capital market (and
avoid the original sin).
60VIII. The prospects for currency boards
(7)
- There may be a fear of floating for small open
economies, because of the absence of a nominal
anchor. Some have resorted to inflation
targeting as an alternative. - On the other hand, though, whether the fixed rate
is an appropriate one, particularly in times of
significant structural or international sea
changes, is always a headache. A fixed rate can
also become a sitting duck for speculators.
61VIII. The prospects for currency boards
(8)
- The merit of floating is that it serves as a good
barometer giving early warning signals about
the economy. One could say that it actually
imposes continuing discipline on the authorities
as well as the private enterprises and they
should adjust in time. The demerit is volatility
and overshooting typical of financial markets. - Well, the debate will no doubt go on.
62VIII. The prospects for currency boards
(9)
- Although the AEL Model is disintegrating, the
principles behind its operations are sound and
can serve as lessons for aspiring fixed exchange
rate regimes, provided that the rate is not
misaligned in a fundamental sense and suitable
economic policies are implemented to support its
viability. - There seems to be little choice for Hong Kong but
to stick with the currency board system in the
near term.
63VIII. The prospects for currency boards
(10)
- In the future, the authorities may consider the
possibility of re-pegging the Hong Kong dollar to
the Renminbi or even a monetary union with the
Mainland. However, many conditions (including the
full convertibility of the Renminbi) need to be
fulfilled first.
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