Dia 1

1
Climate Change, Forestry and Other Land Use The
Past and the Future Challenges and
Opportunities Presentation by Eveline
Trines With thanks to Igino Emmer (Emmer
Internationaal) Date 16 June 2008
EMMER INTERNATIONAAL
2
Presentation Outline

• The science of Climate Change
• Emissions and emitters (what and who)
• What can we do about it now
• Regulated versus voluntary markets
• What can we do about it in the future

3
Climate Change or just a coincidence?
4
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
synthesis of the 4th Assessment report
(www.ipcc.ch 2007)

• Observed changes in climate and their effects
• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as
  is now evident from observations of increases in
  global average air and ocean temperatures,
  widespread melting of snow and ice and rising
  global average sea level

5
Figure SPM.1. IPCC 2007 Observed changes in (a)
global average surface temperature (b) global
average sea level from tide gauge (blue) and
satellite (red) data and (c) Northern Hemisphere
snow cover for March-April. All differences are
relative to corresponding averages for the period
1961 - 1990. Smoothed curves represent decadal
averaged values while circles show yearly values.
The shaded areas are the uncertainty
intervals estimated from a comprehensive analysis
of known uncertainties (a and b) and from the
time series (c).
6
Human-induced (anthropogenic) or not?

• Global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions due to
  human activities have grown since pre-industrial
  times, with an increase of 70 between 1970 and
  2004.
• Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important
  anthropogenic GHG and the increases in CO2
  concentrations are due primarily to fossil fuel
  use, with land-use change providing another
  significant but smaller contribution.
• There is very high confidence that the net effect
  of human activities since 1750 has been one of
  warming.
• Most of the observed increase in global average
  temperatures since the mid-20th century is very
  likely due to the observed increase in
  anthropogenic GHG concentrations. Advances since
  the TAR show that discernible human influences
  extend beyond average temperature to other
  aspects of climate.
• Human influences have
• very likely contributed to sea level rise during
  the latter half of the 20th century
• likely contributed to changes in wind patterns,
  affecting extra-tropical storm tracks and
  temperature patterns
• likely increased temperatures of extreme hot
  nights, cold nights and cold days
• more likely than not increased risk of heat
  waves, area affected by drought since the 1970s
  and frequency of heavy precipitation events.

7
(No Transcript)
8
(No Transcript)
9
(No Transcript)
10
(No Transcript)
11
(No Transcript)
12
Is it really true?the great climate swindle

• In the Volkskrant, Bas van Geel (lecturer
  University of Amsterdam) stated that the observed
  climate change and temperature rise is due to
  solar activity and that this activity will get
  back to lower values after 2012.
• The Netherlands will become an ice skaters
  paradise once more and the Elfstedentocht, the
  mother of all ice-skater tours, will start every
  winter!
• His theory change in solar activity change in
  cosmic radiation climate change
• GHG and solar radiation hypotheses can they
  be falsified?
• IPCC proves right measures needed
• No-regret policy (precautionary principle)

13
(No Transcript)
14
Data source CAIT tool (WRI, 2006) as cited in
Trines et al. 2006 (Report 500102 002
Netherlands Programme on Scientific Assessment
and Policy Analysis (WAB)
15
The context

• Since the industrial revolution approx. 270 Gt C
  emitted as CO2 through fossil fuel burning and
  cement production
• 136 Gt C as a result of land-use change,
  predominantly from forest ecosystems (IPCC, 2000)
• During 1990s the contribution of LUC to the
  global temperature increase was calculated to be
  1.6 0.8 GtC/yr which is 25 of the global
  total (IPCC, 2001)
• This corresponds to approx. 16.1 million ha/yr in
  the same period (FAO, 2001 (FRA)), mainly in the
  tropics
• Continued Deforestation in Brazil Indonesia
  accounts for approx. 4/5 of the reduction target
  for the first commitment period under the Kyoto
  Protocol, excluding fires

16
Who causes the LUC emissions?
17
(No Transcript)
18
Mitigation Options in Forestry

• Afforestation / Reforestation

19
Mitigation Options in Forestry

• Afforestation / Reforestation

20
Mitigation Options in Forestry

• Afforestation / Reforestation
• Forest rehabilitation

21
Mitigation Options in Forestry

• Afforestation / Reforestation
• Forest rehabilitation
• (Improved) Forest Management

22
Mitigation Options in Forestry

• Afforestation / Reforestation
• Forest rehabilitation
• (Improved) Forest Management
• Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and / or
  Forest Degradation

23
Governed Deforestation
1987 2003
Bolivia East of Santa Cruz

24
New settlements
Soybean farms
25
Forests physically standing in the way of
development
26
Ungoverned Deforestation
27
Can we stop it? Or.... What would it cost to
stop it?

• Traditionally non-paid for benefits
• Watershed protection
• Biodiversity (gene bank)
• Livelihood (indigenous peoples)
• Climate regulation and carbon store
• Protection against erosion
• Can we monetize these values?
• Lets talk carbon!

28
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change UNFCCCwww.unfccc.int

• UNCED 1992 Rio de Janeiro entry into force in
  1994
• Stabilizing GHGs to avoid dangerous
  anthropogenic interference with the climate
  system
• Sets an overall framework for intergovernmental
  efforts to tackle climate change challenges
• Recognizes climate system as a shared resource
• More than 190 Parties (country signatories)
• No quantified commitments
• Ad hoc Working Group on the Berlin Mandate (AGBM)

29
Kyoto Protocol

• Adopted in 1997 QELRCs (quantified emission
  limitations and reduction commitments)
• Entered into force 16th February 2005
• Builds on the UNFCCC with legally binding targets
  and timetables for cutting GHG emissions of
  industrialized countries reducing the overall
  emissions of GHGs by at least 5 below the 1990
  levels in the 1st commitment period (5 years
  2008-2012)
• The agreement offers flexibility in how countries
  meet their targets individually or jointly with
  other countries gt flexibility mechanisms

30
(Flexibility) Mechanisms

• Joint Implementation
• industrialised countries and economies in
  transition
• Clean Development Mechanism
• industrialised countries and developing countries
• Emissions Trading

31
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

• All activities, all GHGs except for forestry
  (restricted)
• Forestry only afforestation and reforestation on
  land that did not have forest in 1990, and only
  if the project activities started since 1-1-2000
• Project activities in countries without an
  emission reduction target (developing countries)
• The amount of emission reductions or carbon
  sequestration is converted in carbon credits that
  can be traded
• Industrialized countries can use the carbon
  credits to achieve their emission reduction
  target (willing to pay for credits/projects)
• Capped to 1 of the baseyear emissions x5
• But. quite some rules.

32
Rules, and rules, and rules.

• CDM Executive Board (EB) is the overseer of the
  CDM
• a project must be approved by all involved
  parties, demonstrate ability to reduce
  emissions/sequester carbon (more than what would
  happen in a business as usual scenario hence,
  show that reductions are additional),
  contribute to sustainable development, ascertain
  that emissions are not simply shifted to another
  place, and only ex-post temporary credits are
  issued.
• CDM explained in simple charts (IGES) is 85 pages
  now!
• Maybe not so flexible after all???
• lt 1 of 1 expected

33
CDM Project Cycle (simplified)
34
Many years later

• One approved project..
• Methodologies often gt100 pages and very technical
• Approval process on average 200 working days for
  a rejection and 300 working days for an approval
  of a new methodology

35
(No Transcript)
36
What are the other options?

• Carbon credits
• Regulated market UNFCCC/KP/CDM
• Voluntary market VCS/CCBA/VER/COV

37
Voluntary Carbon StandardVCS

• CDM Voluntary
• Afforestation/Reforestation (A/R) v v
• Forest restoration v v
• Improved Forest Management (IFM) v
• Avoiding deforestation or
• Reducing emissions from deforestation (RED) v
• Agricultural Land Management (ALM) v v

38
Major differences

• More activity types allowed under VCS
• VCS has permanent carbon credits (in stead of
  temporary)
• Risk assessment that results in a buffer carbon
  reserve of credits that cannot be traded
• More efficient relation with verifier (validation
  and verification one go, number of inspections
  flexible)

39
Whats the relevance to conservation?

• Strong political commitment to counter global
  deforestation! Quantified targets already on EU
  level
• For the 1st time money can be made with
  conservation
• Conservation values not strongly embedded in
  climate treaty
• Link to SD is evident
• Could have an exemplary role for other non-paid
  for benefits (Payments for Environmental Services
  (PES) and Community Forest Management (CFM))

40
What happens post 2012 in the regulated market?

• Acknowledgement of contribution of deforestation
  to global climate problem gt REDD
• Political will to include it in a future climate
  regime
• Option to increase the participation of
  developing countries
• National approach (versus project-based
  activities of CP1) voluntary sectoral target
• Numerous methodological issues and even more
  policy issues but if the political will exists.

41
REDD Reducing Emissions from Deforestation
Reduction in emissions in comparison to the
average base period emission level
Schematic representation of the compensated
reduction proposal. The solid line indicates
annual emission levels due to deforestation. The
dotted horizontal line is the average emissions
level during the base period. Area A is the
reduction in emissions during the 1st commitment
period below the base periods emission level.
Area B is the same but in the 2nd commitment
period, if there was to be one. (Trines et al.,
2007)
42
Funding?

• Fund or Market
• And what to do with good behaviour in the past?
  (e.g. Costa Rica)
• And what if the worst is yet to come? (Congo
  Basin)
• And what do we do with replacing high
  conservation value forests with e.g. oil palm?
  (Indonesia, PNG, etc.)

43
What is being done?

• A 2 year period to work on methodological issues
  and to undertake demonstration activities
• Work towards official decision text that is to be
  adopted December 2010 in Copenhagen
• Last week a list of methodological issues has
  been agreed that will form part of the programme
  of work (read that will be part of a final
  decision text)

44
What should be the aim

• Develop (policy) options for the future that
• Facilitate countries to increase their level of
  participation in a future climate regime by
  undertaking activities in the forestry sector
• Take into consideration country-specific
  circumstances and the willingness and
  ability/capacity of countries to engage in a
  future climate regime by undertaking activities
  in the forestry sector and,
• include forestry activities more broadly under a
  future climate change mitigation regimes,
  providing the possibility for industrialised
  countries to commit to higher overall emission
  reduction targets ceteris paribus.

45
What can you do?!

• (sub) National monitoring systems/ inventory
  methodologies / remote sensing
• Assist with the determination of reference
  emission levels
• Capacity building
• Comparability in assessment of carbon stocks of
  diverse ecosystems
• Promotion of co-benefits
• Develop/refine PES systems
• Develop valuation method for impacts on local
  communities and indigenous peoples
• THANK YOU!