SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT USING SIMULATION

1
SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT USING SIMULATION

• 5th Edition

Robert E. Bateman Royce G. Bowden Thomas J.
Gogg Charles R. Harrell Jack R. A. Mott
2
SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT USING SIMULATION
5th Edition
Chapter 1What is Simulation
3
Chapter 1 What is Simulation?
Outline of Chapter 1

• The growth of Modeling
• Simulation is a decision making tool
• The tools of Simulation

4
SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT USING SIMULATION
5th Edition
Chapter 2 Why Simulate ?
5
Chapter 2 Why Simulate ?
Outline of Chapter 2

• Simulation Can Foster Creative Problem Solving
• Simulation Can Predict Outcomes
• Simulation Can Account for System Variances
• Simulation Promotes Total Solutions
• Simulation Can Be Cost Effective

6
Simulation Can Predict Outcomes

• Opinion Models
• Static Mathematical Models
• Simulation Models

7
Simulation Can Account For System Variances
Degree of Difficulty When Analyzing a Problem
Quantity of Stochastic Variables and Their
Interdependencies/Interrelationships
Chart 2A Difficulty of Problem Analysis vs
Quantity of Stochastic Variables
8
SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT USING SIMULATION
5th Edition
Chapter 3 How Does Simulation Work ?
9
Chapter 3How Does Simulation Work ?
10
SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT USING SIMULATION
5th Edition
Chapter 4 Simulation Terminology
11
Chapter 4 Simulation Terminology
Outline Of Chapter 4

• System and System State
• Discrete and Continuous Event Models
• Static and Dynamic Models
• Open Loop and Closed Loop Models
• Steady State and Terminology Simulations
• Warm-Up Period
• Random Number Seeds and Streams
• Model Runs and independent Replications

12
SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT USING SIMULATION
5th Edition
Chapter 5An Introduction To PROMODEL Software
13
Chapter 5 An Introduction to PROMODEL Software
Outline Of Chapter 5

• An Overview of ProModelPC
• An Overview of ProModel for Windows, MedModel and
  ServiceModel

14
SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT USING SIMULATION
5th Edition
Chapter 6 The Simulation Project
15
Chapter 6 The Simulation Project
Outline Of Chapter 6

• Problem Definition and Statement of Objectives
• Model Formulation and Planning
• Data Collection
• Model Development
• Verification
• Validation
• Experimentation
• Result Analysis and Presentation
• implementation

16
SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT USING SIMULATION
5th Edition
Chapter 7 Understanding Probability Distribution
17
Chapter 7 Understanding Probability Distribution
Outline of chapter 7

• Probability Distributions and Simulation
• Creating a Probability Distribution
• Random Variables
• Probability Density Functions
• Discrete and Continuous Distributions
• Means, variations and Standard Deviations

18
SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT USING SIMULATION
5th Edition
Chapter 8 Finding the Right Distribution
19
Chapter 8 Finding the Right Distribution
Outline of Chapter 8

• Why Use Standard Deviations ?
• Common Standard Distributions
• Goodness-of-Fit tests

20
SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT USING SIMULATION
5th Edition
Chapter 9 Extracting Values From Probability
Distributions
21
Chapter 9 Extracting Variables from Probability
Distributions
Outline of Chapter 9

• Cumulative Probability Distributions
• Cumulative Distribution Function
• Random Numbers
• Random Number generators
• Extracting Random Values from Probability
  Distributions

22
SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT USING SIMULATION
5th Edition
Chapter 10 Output Analysis
23
Chapter 10 Output Analysis
Outline of Chapter 10

• Types of Output
• Warm-Up Periods for Steady-State Simulation
• Number of Replications
• Statistical Inference
• The Central Limit Theorem
• Comparing and Evaluating Alternatives
• Variance Reduction Techniques
• Managing Model Replication and Output

24
SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT USING SIMULATION
5th Edition
Chapter 11Introduction To Simulation Optimization
25
Chapter 11 Introduction To Simulation
Optimization
Outline of Chapter 11

• Historical Prospective
• Simulation and Optimization
• Combining Direct Search Techniques and Simulation
• Evolutionary Algorithms
• Single Variable optimization
• An Inventory Control Problem
• Tactical Issues
• Summary and Conclusion

26
SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT USING SIMULATION
5th Edition
Chapter 12 The Final Perspective
27
Chapter 12 The Final Perspective
Outline of Chapter 12

• Incorporating Financial Perspective
• Comparison of Two Alternatives
• Total Cost
• Operational Cost
• Cost Accumulation
• Simulation and the Hierarchy of Financial
  Integration
• Sources and Cost Information
• Wait Time Carrying Costs

28
SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT USING SIMULATION
5th Edition
Chapter 13 Applications of Simulation
29
Chapter 13 Applications of Simulations
Outline of Chapter 13

• Manufacturing issues
• Service Applications
• Health Care
• Logistics