PRIMARY BRACKETOLOGY

1
PRIMARY BRACKETOLOGY

• Making sense of momentum in
  the nomination process
• Dante J. Scala
• University of New Hampshire

2
What happens once we start voting?

• Front-loaded primary schedule means IA, NH matter
  less
• Only well-funded, well-known candidates can
  compete in national, 33-day primary
• Little-known candidates have no time to
  capitalize on upset

• OR... Front-loaded primary schedule makes IA, NH
  matter more
• after year-long process, media attention huge in
  first states
• candidates cannot afford early stumble in 100-yd
  dash

3
What does history tell us?

• Since 1980, nine multicandidate primaries
• GOP 1980, 1988, 1996, 2000
• Dems 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 2004
• of these nine, only one (Bill Clinton, 1992) won
  the nomination without winning IA or NH
• Why? In large part, because winning early
  contest is signal of electability to mass
  electorate just starting to pay attention

4
Third wheels

• Some candidates do survive winnowing in IA and NH
  without winning these states
• however, they become third wheels in
  two-candidate competition
• Jesse Jackson, 1988 Jerry Brown, 1992 Lamar
  Alexander, 1996 Steve Forbes, 2000 Wesley
  Clark, 2004
• Third wheels never win the nomination

5
Will 2008 be any different?

• Yes, process is more frontloaded than ever
• On other hand, media attention greatest ever
• If latter at least cancels out the former, then
  IA and NH matter at least as much as ever
• And again, because of compressed schedule, scarce
  time to recover from an early loss
• so maybe IA and NH matter more than ever

6
WIN or GET OUT!

• Winnowing process of early contests like a
  tournament
• NCAA college basketball, or Little League
• Winning within your bracket means living to fight
  another day
• Early losers may be headed home very soon
• Electability Winners win, losers lose

7
Lets go to the GOP brackets!

• Five candidates plausibly can win the nomination
• Romney, Giuliani, McCain, Huckabee, Thompson
  (sorry, Paulines!)
• How do we make sense of this five-man race?
• Divide into two brackets
• Moderates (Rudy v. McCain)
• Conservatives (Mitt v. Fred v. Huckabee)

8
The conservative bracket
THE conservative candidate
9
If Mitt wins Iowa, Fred second...
THE conservative candidate
10
If Mitt wins Iowa, Huckabee second...
THE conservative candidate
11
If Fred wins Iowa...
THE conservative candidate
12
If Huckabee wins Iowa...
THE conservative candidate
13
The moderate bracket
THE moderate candidate
14
Does IA matter for these guys?

• Yes, if they can surprise and exceed expectations
  
• Exceeding expectations second place in IA
• If either wins first?
• Immediate frontrunner status

15
Not everyone leaves New Hampshire...
THE moderate candidate
16
If Mitt wins New Hampshire...
THE moderate candidate
Tom Raths question However, if Romney wins IA
and NH, his momentum becomes tough to stop.
Where does Rudy win?
17
If Rudy wins New Hampshire...

• Rudy becomes the moderate candidate
• Rudy stops Mitts momentum
• Rudy sends McCain home
• Best of all worlds Rudy vs. trio of weak
  conservatives
• On to S. Carolina!

18
Dems Queen (or King) of the mountain
19
If Hillary wins IA, Obama second
20
Implications

• Do New Hampshire Democrats see the race as a
  two-person contest?
• Does Obama become the anti-Hillary?
• Hillarys nightmare Mondale-Hart scenario from
  1984

21
What about the second tier?

• Can one of the others get into the picture?
• Only by finishing 3rd in Iowa
• 2nd in N.H.

22
Conclusions Are IA, NH everything?

• Depends (but yes, mostly)
• HRC goes 2-for-2, its over
• Obama goes 2-for-2, its over
• If Edwards wins IA, then we go to Feb. 5
  (Super-Duper Tuesday)
• If HRC and Obama split IA and NH, we go to Feb. 5
  (at least)

23
And the Republicans?

• at this stage, only Romney seems to have a chance
  to win both IA and NH
• AND Romneys strategy the only one that depends
  on winning both IA and NH!
• Huckabee IA first, then SC
• Thompson IA SC
• Rudy, McCain NH stepping stone to SC

24
Once momentum starts...

• ... its difficult to stop
• just ask former frontrunner Howard Dean
• once real people start voting, events take on a
  logic of their own
• WIN or GET OUT!