The Maintenance Decision Support System MDSS: Program Overview

1
The Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS)
Program Overview

• Bill Mahoney
• National Center For Atmospheric Research
• (NCAR)
• Road Weather Management
• Operations Task Force
• 23 February 2004

FHWA Road Weather Management Program
2
National Center for Atmospheric Research

• Non-profit academic organization
• Administered by consortium of 66 Ph.D.-granting
  North American universities through the
  University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
  (UCAR)
• UCAR International Affiliates A group of 33
  international institutions with strong
  connections to UCAR/NCAR
• Staffing size 1200 persons

3
NCAR Organization
UCAR Board
UCAR Foundation R.C. Mercure, President
UCAR Richard Anthes, President
UCAR Office of Programs Jack Fellows, Director
NCAR Timothy Killeen, Director
Environmental and Societal Impacts Group Bob
Harriss, Director
Advanced Study Program Al Cooper, Director
Atmospheric Chemistry Division Daniel
McKenna Director
Scientific Computing Division Al Kellie Director
Divisions
Climate and Global Dynamics Division Maurice
Blackmon Director
Atmospheric Technology Division Open Director
Research Applications Program Brant
Foote Director
Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology
Division Open Director
High Altitude Observatory Michael
Knölker Director
4
Research Applications Program

• RAP
• One of seven major divisions of NCAR
• About 155 people, approximately half are
  atmospheric scientists, and half are engineers
• Mission
• Develop and transfer knowledge and technology to
  US government agencies, the private sector, and
  foreign governments

5
Research Applications Program
Land-Surface Modeling
Icing and Related Cloud Physics
Atmospheric Turbulence
Hybrid Forecast Techniques
Remote Sensing
Numerical Weather Prediction
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
Thunderstorm Nowcasting
Rain Enhancement Evaluation
Wind Field Retrieval
Precip. Nowcasting
Snowfall and Freezing Drizzle
Coupled Hydrologic Run-Off Models
Information Technology
Systems Engineering
Real-Time Oper- ational Systems
Specialized Displays
TECHNOLOGY
Reservoir of Capability

• Aviation and Range Weather
• Icing
• Turbulence
• Thunderstorm
• Ceiling Visibility
• Wind Wind Shear

• Public Forecast
• Improvements
• Precipitation
• Temperature
• Severe Weather
• Wind
• DiCASTTM

• Hydrometeorolog
• Water Resources
• Rainfall Estimation
• Precip. Forecasts
• Surface Runoff
• Rain Enhancement Evaluation

• Fire Weather
• Temperature
• Wind
• Precipitation
• Soils Fuels

• Surface
• Transportation
• Precipitation
• Wind
• Temperature
• Visibility
• Sensors

• Security
• Modeling
• Plume Dispersion
• Lidar/Radar
• Boundary winds

APPLICATIONS
6
Decision Support Systems
7
Maintenance Decision Support System
8

• What is the Maintenance Decision Support System
  (MDSS)?
• The prototype MDSS combines
• Advanced weather prediction
• Advanced road condition prediction
• Rules of practice for anti- and de-icing
• Generates treatment recommendations on a route by
  route basis

9
Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS) Project
FHWA Office of Transportation Operation
(HOTO) Road Weather Management Program Paul
Pisano
Mitretek Systems Andy Stern
Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center Rudy
Persaud Randall VanGorder
Army Cold Regions Research Engineering Lab
(CRREL) Gary Phetteplace Goeff Keonig
MIT Lincoln Lab Robert Hallowell Darin Meyer
National Center for Atmospheric Research
(NCAR) Bill Mahoney Bill Myers
NOAA Forecast Systems Lab Paul Schultz Brent Shaw
NOAA NSSL John Cortinas
NOAA ETL Dan Wolff
10
Major Project Goals

• Develop a winter road maintenance decision
  support system prototype and make them available
  to the road weather community
• Raise overall awareness of the impact of weather
  on the roadway system by involving
• AMS, ITSA, TRB, AASHTO, State DOTs, Private
  Sector, Universities, National Labs, NAS etc.
• Investigate new weather technologies and methods
  that may have applicability for road weather use

11
Overview MDSS Project Schedule
FY2000 Requirements Analysis FY2001
Conceptual Prototype Development FY2002 Funct
ional Prototype Development Demo Technology
Release-1 FY2003 Field Demonstration 1
Iowa Technology Release-2 FY2004 Field
Demonstration 2 - Iowa Technology
Release-3 FY2005 Technology Transfer
Refinements (TBD)
12
Technology Transfer Process
It is the intent of the FHWA that the prototype
MDSS be used as a template by the private sector.
It is anticipated that the MDSS will
ultimately be deployed by road operating agencies
and supplied by the private sector. Release-1
September 2002 Release-2 September
2003 Release-3 September 2004
13
MDSS Stakeholder Group(partial listing)
75 Members
14
MDSS Test Bed

• Winter Maintenance Decisions Supported by the
• MDSS FP
• Treatment Type (Chemical, Plow, Sand, etc.)
• Treatment Amount (lbs per lane mile, etc.)
• Treatment Location (plow routes)
• Treatment Timing (start/end)
• Identify Chemicals
• Load Chemicals
• Mobilize Crews
• Crew Scheduling

15
Weather Diagnoses Forecasts
MDSS Scientific challenges - Precipitation
prediction - Winter precipitation detection -
Road temperature prediction - Boundary layer
meteorology (0 to 2 m AGL) - Thermodynamics (heat
flux, mixing, etc.) - Numerical modeling (meso-
to misoscale) - Verification (with limited
verification data) - Chemistry of anti-icing and
deicing materials - Impact of vehicles on
anti-icing and deicing materials
16
MDSS Functional Prototype 2003 - 2004
NCAR
NOAA/NWS National Weather Service Data

NOAA/FSL Supplemental Weather Prediction
Models RWIS Data

• Iowa DOT Data
• RWIS
• Road characteristics
• Route characteristics

RWIS Data
17
MDSS Functional Prototype Structure Winter
2003-2004
Data Fusion - Road Weather Forecast System
Supplemental Weather Models
Forecast Module A
Forecast Integrator
Ensemble System Model Initialization MM5 Eta WRF E
ta
10 Prediction Members
Data Ingest
Forecast Module B
Forecast Module C
Rapid Update Cycle (RUC)
Post Processor
Forecast Module D
. . .
DOT Data
Forecast Product
RWIS
Forecast Module N
DICASTTM
Weather Forecast Engine
Road Condition Treatment Module
18
MDSS Functional Prototype
MDSS Update Rate Every 3 hours Output
resolution Hourly Update Schedule 12 a.m., 3,
6, 9, 12 p.m.
19
Data Fusion System - RWFS

• The learning process
• used in the RWFS does
• improve the forecasts
• for verifiable parameters.
• However, winter
• precipitation amount is
• poorly observed, so it must be
• treated differently in the
• RWFS.

20
Supplemental Weather Forecast Model Domain
21
Road Condition-Treatment Algorithms
Pavement Temperature
Chemical Application
Weather Variables
Road Snow Depth
Rules of Practice
Plowing
Chemical Concentration
22
MDSS Field Demonstration - 2003
Live Field Demonstration
23
Verification Data Collection

• Data collectors and methods
• Focus
• Recording changes in road condition during events
• New Data Items
• GPS/AVL data from IA-DOT vehicles
• Additional CTRE assistance
• New snow gauge data at Ames garage
• Lab staff on site during winter storm events

24
MDSS Display
25
Winter 2003-2004 - Results To Date

• Very light snow events (flurries lt0.5 inches) a
  big challenge for small-scale modeling
• Treatment recommendations reasonable this year
• Winter precipitation observations still poor
• Radar data contamination (clutter, AP, virga)
  impacts tactical operations
• MDSS integration with DOT data archive (actual
  treatments) strongly desired.
• More sophisticated blowing snow decision support
  desired

26
Web Sites
http//www.rap.ucar.edu/projects/rdwx_mdss
http//www.ops.fhwa.dot.gov/weather