Mike Bell Met Office, UK

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GODAE Status
Mike Bell (Met Office, UK) Pierre-Yves Le Traon
(Ifremer, France) Co-chairs of the International
GODAE Steering Team (IGST)
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Content

• The mission vision for GODAE
• Achievements and Successes
• Priorities for GODAE
• Recent European developments (Euro-Argo, GMES
  My Ocean)

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The Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment
The Mission for GODAE
A practical demonstration of the feasibility
utility of high-resolution, global analyses
short-range forecasts of 3D temperatures,
salinities and currents
Timetable
1997 1999 Conceptual development 2000
2003 Prototype development 2004 2008
Operational demonstration consolidation
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Main GODAE activities (2002-2007)

• Develop/consolidate national systems
• From prototype and regional systems to global and
  pre-operational systems
• High resolution for mesoscale and coastal
  applications (e.g. Mercator, NCOF, Mersea)
• Low resolution advanced data assimilation for
  climate research (e.g. ECCO)
• Develop links with users and applications
• Development of data and product serving
  capability
• Standardisation, harmonization format, grid,
  distribution (opendap/LAS)
• Product assessment and intercomparison
• Define/agree/implement common internal metrics
• Continue development of ocean state estimation
  methodologies and modelling
• International collaboration
• Pilot projects
• Argo, GHRSST-PP

International GODAE Steering Team (IGST) (11
meetings) GODAE conference (Biarritz, 2002), User
Symposium (St Petersburg, 2004), GODAE Summer
School (2004), Symposium/workshop (Beijing, 2006)
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Achievements and Successes

• Implementation of observing and data processing
  system
• Argo, altimetry, GHRSST-PP, in-situ
• Implementation of global modelling and data
  assimilation capabilities
• Implementation of data and product serving
  capabilities and standardization
• Demonstrations of feasibility and utility
• - see examples
• Scientific advances
• - Modelling, data assimilation,
  scientific validation

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• The pre-GODAE in-situ ocean observing system was
  clearly inadequate for the global scope of GODAE
  gt Development of Argo a joint GODAE/CLIVAR
  pilot project.

Outstanding progress so far thanks to
international cooperation. A global array (3000
floats) is targeted in mid 2007 An efficient
data management system is in place.
http//argo.jcommops.org
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Impact of Argo data in the MERCATOR multivariate
data assimilation system (Benkiran et al., 2005)

• Assimilation of in-situ and satellite data vs
  assimilation of satellite data (SLA and SST)
  only.
• Statistics for year 2003

Rms of differences between in-situ data and model
forecast (7-day)
Reference
Without T/S assimilation
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Implementation Forecast systems

• National systems involving research operational
  institutes
• BlueLink Australia
• Canadian consortium
• NLOM and NCOM - USA
• HYCOM consortium - USA
• Move COMPASS-K systems Japan
• MERCATOR France
• MFS - Italy
• NCOF consortium (FOAM) UK
• TOPAZ - Norway
• European coordination
• MERSEA consortium

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Feasibility Forecasting of ocean mesoscale
using altimeter data
SeaWiFS ocean color
1/32 NLOM sea surface height (SSH) and surface
currents
26N
26N
24N
24N
Altimeter data assimilated
No assimilation
22N
22N
20N
20N
18N
18N
16N
16N
56E
56E
56E
58E
60E
62E
58E
60E
62E
58E
60E
62E
(in mg/m3)
(in cm)
1.0
1.6
2.5
4.0
0.6
0.4
0.3
Composite of most recent data Oct 2-Oct 6 2002,
mostly Oct 6
Oct 6 2002
Oct 6 2002
http//www.ocean.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom
Shriver et al. (JMS, 2007)
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Feasibility improved understanding of the ocean
- Tropical-subtropical Exchange
Pycnocline transport at Pacific 10N showing
counteracting effect of boundary interior flow
in regulating tropical heat content on
interannual-decadal time scales (Lee Fukumori
2003, J. Climate)
This causes anomalous off-equatorial circulation,
with opposite boundary interior flows
Wind stress curl anomaly develops off the
equator during El Nino
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Utility Forecast of Kuroshio Large Meander

• In 2004 the Japan Meterological Agency made a
  60-day forecast
• of the largest Kuroshio Large Meander for 10
  years
• A large meander induces strong upwelling with
  impacts on fisheries and
• the local climate
• The forecast was front-page news and praised by
  fisheries agencies

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Model improvements Sensitivity Analysis for
Re-evaluation of Ocean Observing System
Integrating the singular vector with
eddy-resolving adjoint model

• The Japan Meterological Agency (Meteorological
  Research Institute)
• have continued a series of OSE/OSSE sensitivity
  experiments of singular vector
• analysis for examining the cause/sensitivity of
  the Kuroshio Large Meander and
• examining the ocean observing system.
• The singular vector shows a cause or sensitivity
  for the meander. The information
• improves initial condition and forecasting,
  and gives a candidate of target
• observation

Result Kuroshio Large Meander
Cause or Sensitivity
Color 1200m Temperature Right singular
vector Black line 0.2m contour of the SSH in
background state
(Fujii et al., 2007)
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Utility Simulation of lobster larvae tracks
Useful information for fisheries managers on
inter-regional dependence of fish stocks
The red box means larval tracks stop here
Larvae come from both sides
The green box means larval tracks start here
Larvae only go east
Credit to david.griffin_at_csiro.au
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Other examples of feasibility and utility

• Surface drift and dispersion predictions for
  marine safety and counter-pollution
• Intensification of hurricanes over warm pools
• Current profile forecasts for off-shore industry
  
• Thermal structure forecasts for Defence
• Research

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Working with intermediate usersMarine Pollution
(the Prestige case)
A MERSEA Strand 1 experiment
3D Ocean Analysis
N. .Atlantic Monitoring and Forecasting
systems
Oil Spill Drift
Oil Spill Operational Systems
OBS
Météo-France (France)
FOAM (UK) (12 km resol)
Met.No (Norway)
MERCATOR (F) (6 km resol)
Courtesy of B.Hackett
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Model improvements Intercomparisons and
metrics
System intercomparisons are important - to
speed up improvement of systems - to develop
international standards
WOCE
Denmark Strait Section Potential
Temperature
System 1
System 2
System 3
System 4
Buffer Zone North of Denmark Strait With
Relaxation to Climatology
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METRICS in GODAE (from MERSEA work)
Class 1 (regional vertical/horizontal
grids) Class 2 (moorings, gliders, XBT,
WOCE/CLIVAR lines..) Class 3 (volume
transport) Class 4 (forecasting skills in
observation and model space)
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• GODAE Priorities 2006-2008
• GODAE demonstration
• Establish and consolidate base-line systems
  (GODAE standards).
• Demonstrations of Impact/Utility main focus of
  GODAE. Develop a series of  good  examples of
  GODAE successes (from observations to users).
• GODAE products
• Error characterisation consolidate work on
  metrics and intercomparison (GODAE label). Make
  sure a minimum set is internationally
  implemented.
• Develop product standardization. Ensure
  interoperability between systems.
• Observing Systems
• Use the experiment for an improved design of the
  observing system. Provide clear demonstration of
  added value and impact on applications. Promote
  results (space agencies, GMES, GEOSS).
• Transition from demonstration to operational
  systems
• Work with JCOMM on the transition
• Promote examples of transition to operational
  systems for the different nations
• Contribute to the definition of operational
  oceanography architecture
• New projects/initiatives coastal and ecosystems

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Advance The GODAE Coastal and Shelf Seas
Working group (CSSWG)

• The usefulness of GODAE systems to coastal and
  shelf seas forecasting will be one of the
  measures of the success of GODAE.
• The mission of the GODAE CSSWG is to define,
  monitor and promote actions, within GODAE, aimed
  at the assessment and demonstration of the value
  of GODAE results for regional, coastal and shelf
  seas models and forecasting systems

• Position paper "Towards the assessment and
  demonstration of the value of GODAE results for
  coastal and shelf seas models and forecasting
  systems" P. De Mey, ed., 74pp.
• 2007 GODAE Coastal workshop, Liverpool, UK, 10-11
  Octoberhttp//cobs.pol.ac.uk/cobs/CSSWG
• 2008 GODAE Coastal workshop, planned in
  Newfoundland, Canada

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The GODAE IMBER initiative (Ecosystem
modelling)

• To facilitate dialogue between those developing
  new
• ecosystem models and the developers of the
  operational systems.
• To promote mutual understanding of the
  requirements of the two communities.

• Areas of importance
• Ecosystem modelling data assimilation
• - Schemes for assimilation of
  biogeochemical data are under development
• - Current assimilation schemes degrade the
  biogeochemistry
• - Overall high horizontal and vertical
  resolution models for the upper ocean are
• needed.
• - Advanced schemes for a finer vertical
  structure are a key issue for nutrient
• transport.
• Interaction with coastal and shelf seas systems
  
• Support for B-Argo (see friends of Oxygen on
  Argo)
• Reanalysis

First GODAE-IMBER Meeting Paris, France, 12-13
June 2007
Establishment of GODAE-IMBER Working Group
desired to coordinate modelling and
observations
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GODAE in 2007/2008

• Four workshops in 2007 (preparation of final
  conference)
• IMBER/GODAE Summer 2007
• OSSEs/OSEs Observing system (GODAE/CLIVAR) in
  Fall 2007
• GODAE Coastal workshop in Fall 2007 and mid 2008
• IGST meeting, Canada, August 2007 and Spring 2008
  
• Final conference in Fall 2008 jointly held with
  OSTM meeting
• Special journal issue on GODAE achievements
• 2nd summer school in Spring 2009

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Final GODAE conference in Fall 2008 jointly held
with OSTM meeting (to be discussed at next IGST
meeting)

• Review of achievements (data systems,
  modelling/assimilation systems, data and product
  serving, science issues, applications and users)
• Observing systems review, utility and impact,
  refined requirements, main issues,
• The future GODAE legacy, transition towards
  operational systems, role of JCOMM, research
  coordination
• Probably over three days
• Issues on observing systems could/should be
  jointly held with a St Raphael follow on
  conference (could the two/three events be linked
  over one week ?)

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Summary

• The essence of GODAE is a practical
• demonstration of feasibility and utility
• There have been major achievements in
• implementing observing and forecasting
• systems, establishing collaborations and
• demonstrations of feasibility
• We are adapting our targets for and approach to
• demonstrations of utility learning from
  successes
• Sustainability of the observing system - remains
  a most critical issue

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Future European initiatives

• Euro-Argo
• GMES Marine Core Services (My Ocean)

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EURO-ARGO

• Context ESFRI (European Strategy Forumon
  Research Infrastructures) (European Commission).
  Roadmap for new large research infrastructures of
  pan-European interest.
• Euro-Argo selected (35 projects 7 environment
  sciences)
• Proposal Europe establishes an infrastructure
  for ¼, i.e. 800 floats in operation
• Requirement 250 floats per year including
  regional enhancements (Nordic, Mediterranean and
  Black seas)

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Preparatory Phase Proposal

• Main expected outcomes
• Agreement for long term (10-20 years) operation
  of Euro-Argo (financial, legal, governance,
  organisation, technical). Member States
  (ministerial level)
• Agreement with EC (GMES, GEO, DG Research) for
  additional long term EC funding
• Main technical and organizational issues to be
  solved
• Links with international structure

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GMES Marine Core Serviceand European operational
oceanography
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
...
Operational
Implementation
Initial
GMES Phases
Demonstrate the European maturity of oceanography
Build the GMES marine system, integrating the
core capacities (MERSEA)
Run the GMES marine core service, on an
operational basis

• Challenge (1) run the European core service on
  an operational basis
• Challenge (2) link definitively with the
  European and member states main services and
  applications
• Challenge (3) organise an a sustainable basis
  the link between this operational European
  service and the existing research networks

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MY OCEAN a 3-year project to set up and operate
the GMES Marine Core Service
The down stream Cut off
The upstream cut-off
downstream to our service ... is done (duty), or
will be better done (skill) by a specialized
agency, a European agency or a national center
usually already in place Example COASTAL
SYSTEMS
upstream to our service ... is done (duty) by an
observation agency or center (raw data) Example
Eumetsat SAF or the ESA PAC
Data, Model European added-value
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• MyOcean will
• deliver regular and systematic reference
  information (processed data, elaborated products)
  on the state of the oceans and regional seas
• at the resolution required by intermediate users
  downstream service providers, of known quality
  and accuracy,
• for the global and European regional seas.

• Physical state of the ocean, and primary
  ecosystem
• For global ocean, and main European basins and
  seas
• Large and basin scale mesoscale physics
• Hindcast, Nowcast, Forecast
• Data, Assimilation and Models

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Modelling and Forecasting centers and regions

• 1. Global
• 2. Arctic
• 3. Baltic
• 4. NWS
• 5. IBI
• 6. Med Sea
• 7 Black Sea

Arctic GOOS
2
NOOS
4
3
BOOS
1
GOOS/ GODAE
1
7
1
6
Black Sea GOOS
5
6
IBI-ROOS
MOON MedGOOS
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Example
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• GODAE-OOPC OSSE/OSE meeting
• Paris, November 5-7 2007
• The GODAE initial requirements and a strategy for
  a global observing system have been described in
  the OceanObs99 conference book. By the end of
  GODAE, more specific requirements should be made
  on the basis of improved understanding of data
  utility and a series of recommendations for an
  improved design of the global ocean observing
  system should be delivered.
• Global ocean state estimation systems are a
  powerful means to assess the impact of the
  observing system, to identify gaps and to improve
  the efficiency/effectiveness of the observing
  system. OSEs (Observing System Evaluations) or
  OSSEs (Observing System Simulation Experiments)
  are, in particular, useful tools. Impact on
  applications is another issue and should also
  guide OSEs/OSSEs studies (e.g.optimizing surface
  current forecasts for marine safety
  applications).
• gt hold a GODAE/OOPC workshop on OSEs/OSSEs in
  fall 2007 to improve the collaboration and
  sharing of OSSEs and OSEs results between GODAE,
  OOPC, CLIVAR and other groups.

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Workshop objectives

• Review work done on OSEs and OSSEs over the past
  years
• Identify robust and common features
• Provide good examples of the contribution of
  observing system
• Provide preliminary recommendations on the
  observing system design. What needs to be
  improved ?
• Specific topics should include
• Low/high resolution altimetry
• Argo
• Tropical moorings
• High resolution SSTs
• New observing techniques (e.g. salinity,
  gliders)
• Scatterometry
• Prior to the workshop, specific impact studies
  should be defined and carried out by the
  different groups so that results can be compared
  and discussed at the workshop.
• Outcomes of the workshop a first list of
  recommendations for the global observing system,
  a work plan to prepare the GODAE recommendations
  and (mainly) to make a better case to for the
  global ocean observing system (final GODAE
  conference)