Winter Outlook 20062007

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Winter Outlook 2006-2007

• David Manning
• National Weather Service
• Baltimore-Washington

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To See the Future, You must Learn from the Past

• Review Last Year
• What is Normal?
• Official Forecast
• Climate Signals
• NWS Services

Record Storm 28 in DC
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Last Years CPC Temperature Outlook
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Last Years CPC Precipitation Outlook
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What Happened Last Year? (DCA)

• Snowfall
• 13.6 Inches for season
• Below average of 15.2
• Precipitation (liquid equiv.)
• 2005 7.99 below normal
• 2006 9.05 near normal
• Normal is 8.89
• Temperatures
• 2005 38.6 above normal
• 2006 39.4 above normal
• Normal is 37.2

Go to http//weather.gov/washington for more on
Past Weather and Historic Events
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What is a Normal Winter?

• Frequency of snow in the Metropolitan Area
• 1 or more 6 times per year
• 4 or more 3 times per year
• 8 or more 1 time per year

Go to http//weather.gov/washington
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Average Snowfall
Go to http//weather.gov/washington
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What About This Winter?

• NOAAs Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
• 3-10 Hazards Assessment
• 8-14 Temperature and Precip. Outlook
• 30 day Temp. and Precip. Outlook
• Multi-seasonal Temperature and Precipitation
  Outlook
• Official CPC Forecast

Go to http//www.cpc.noaa.gov
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Dec. Feb. Temp. Outlook
For more information and updates go to
http//www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/forecasts
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Dec. Feb. Precipitation Outlook
For more information and updates go to
http//www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/forecasts
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Climate Factors for 2007

• El Nino /Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
• Strengthening El Nino
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• Negative colder and more snow
• Positive warmer and less snow
• Can forecast 1 to 2 weeks out

For more information and updates go to
http//www.cpc.noaa.gov
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North Atlantic Oscillation
For more information and updates go to
http//www.cpc.noaa.gov
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North Atlantic Oscillation
For more information and updates go to
http//www.cpc.noaa.gov
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NAO Daily Index
Go to http//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip
/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html
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NAO Index Forecast
Watch for the transition from the cold negative
phase
http//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlin
k/pna/nao_index.html
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8-14 Day Outlook (Temp. Pcpn.)
Temperatures
Precipitation
For more information and updates go to
http//www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/forecasts
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3 - 10 Day Hazard Assessment
For more information and updates go to
http//www.cpc.noaa.gov/
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Hazardous Weather Outlook

• Issued Daily (by 6 am and 11 am)
• Plain language
• Designed for decision-makers and planners
• Day 1 - hazardous weather in the next 24 hrs
• Day 2 - 7 outlook

Go to the upper left corner of the web page at
http//weather.gov/washington
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Washington DC Area Notification Procedures

• E-mail message and Map generated
• E-mail is generated
• Winter Storm Watch
• Winter Storm Warning
• Winter Weather Advisory
• A significant update to the forecast occurs

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Example Map
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Commonly Asked Questions

• Start Time
• End Time
• Duration
• Changes in Precipitation Type
• Temperature and Wind after the snow ends
• Snowfall Rate
• Confidence in the Forecast

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Check out our website daily!

• All sorts of Graphical Forecasts
• 6 hour snowfall
• Winds
• Hourly temperatures
• Probabilities

Also, check out our Emergency Management Web site
Hourly Temperature and Wind Forecast
Go to http//weather.gov/washington
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Other topics

• Coastal Flood benchmarks
• SKYWARN Training
• StormReady
• DC NWR Transmitter
• Spring EM Workshop

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Questions?

• David Manning
• Warning Coordination Meteorologist
• - David.Manning_at_noaa.gov
• 703-260-0107 ext. 223

Go to http//weather.gov/washington