Amir Abbas Rassafi

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(No Transcript)
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Amir Abbas Rassafi
Sharif University of Technology
Quantitative Methods in the Assessment of
Sustainable Transport

• PhD Candidate of Transportation Engineering

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The Presentation Outline

• Problem Definition
• The Emergence of Sustainable Development (SD)
• Quantification of SD
• - Assessment
• - Modeling
• The proposed Method for Assessment
• - Elasticity
• - Database Characteristics
• - Data Reduction
• - Final Database
• - Elasticity Analysis
• - Aggregation and Its Different Scopes

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The Presentation Outline

• Applications
• - Concordance Analysis
• - Data Envelopment Analysis
• - Posets / Hasse Diagram Technique
• The proposed Method for Modeling
• - Chaos
• - Predator-Prey Model
• Conclusions

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Problem Definition

• The Objective Is to Quantify the Concept of
  Sustainable Transport (ST) in a National Scope

• Transport Has Major Interactions with the Other
  Sectors

• Transport vs. Economy
• Transport vs. Environment
• Transport vs. Social Aspects

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Problem Definition

• Transport vs. Economy

• Measuring the Economic Wealth of the Countries
• The Role of Transport in Economy
• Value Added of the Car Industries
• Value Added of the Transport Services (Supply
  Chain / People Movement)
• Accessibility
• The Impact of Economy on Transport

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Problem Definition

• Transport vs. Environment

• Non-Renewable Resource Depletion
• Pollution

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Problem Definition

• Transport vs. Social Aspect

• Equity
• Public Participation
• Traffic Accidents

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The Emergence of SD
SD
Growth
Development

• The Growth Chain

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Quantification of SD

• Assessment
• Indicators / Criteria

• Modeling
• System Dynamics / Differential and Difference
  Equations / Optimization

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The proposed Method for Assessment

• Why Elasticity?
• - A Comprehensive Measure
• - Comparative Assessment
• - Finding Trends
• - Temporal Consideration

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The proposed Method for Assessment

• Preliminary Database
• - National Data Reported Annually
• - References (WB, UN, IRU)
• - 450 Variables in 31 Categories
• - Missing Data

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The proposed Method for Assessment

• Data Reduction
• - Cut-Off Rule
• - Factor Analysis

Factor analysis attempts to identify underlying
variables, or factors, that explain the pattern
of correlations within a set of observed
variables. Factor analysis is often used in data
reduction to identify a small number of factors
that explain most of the variance observed in a
much larger number of manifest variables.
- Factor Analysis
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The proposed Method for Assessment
- Factor Analysis

• Data reduction tool
• Removes redundancy or duplication from a set of
  correlated variables
• Represents correlated variables with a smaller
  set of derived variables.
• Factors are formed that are relatively
  independent of one another.
• Components
• latent variables factors
• observed variables

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The proposed Method for Assessment
- Factor Analysis

• Data reduction tool
• Removes redundancy or duplication from a set of
  correlated variables
• Represents correlated variables with a smaller
  set of derived variables.
• Factors are formed that are relatively
  independent of one another.
• Components
• latent variables factors
• observed variables

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The proposed Method for Assessment

• Final Database

The Variable Selection Structure
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The proposed Method for Assessment

• Final Database

The Selected Variables
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The proposed Method for Assessment

• Final Database

The Selected Variables
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The proposed Method for Assessment
Elasticity of Y with respect to X

• Elasticity Analysis

• 432 Elasticity Values for Each Country

Transport Variable
Non-Transport Variable
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The proposed Method for Assessment
Z Score
Mean

• Aggregation

Composite Index of Group G WRT X
Standard Deviation
Coefficient
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Applications
Concordance Analysis -Alternate plans are ranked
by a series of pairwise comparisons across the
set of objectives in a rank-ordering technique. -
Alternatives ? Countries - objectives ? Composite
Indices
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Applications
Concordance Analysis
Concordance Analysis -A concordance index
calculates the degree to which one alternative
plan is preferred to another for a given
weighting structure on the objectives. -A
discordance index calculates the degree to which
one alternative plan is dominated by another.
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Applications
Concordance Analysis
-The Countries with Greater Values for Net
Concordance and Less Values for Net Discordance
Are Better Than the Others.
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Applications
Concordance Analysis
-Alternatives (Countries) That Perform Better
Than Average on Both Concordance and Discordance
Are Defined as Non-dominated.
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Applications
Data Envelopment Analysis
-If given DMUs, A and B, is capable of producing
Y(A) and Y(B) units of output with X(A) and X(B)
inputs, respectively, then other DMUs should also
be able to do the same if they were to operate
efficiently.
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Applications
Data Envelopment Analysis
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Applications
Partial Order Theory
Partial order theory and Hasse diagram technique
appears to be a promising tool for environmental
decision-making issues.
A partial order on a set P is a relation P2
that is reflexive (x x), antisymmetric (x
y and y x imply x y), and transitive (x
y, and y z imply x z).
Partially Ordered Set (POSET)
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Applications
Partial Order Theory
Hasse Diagram Technique (HDT)
The ranking probabilities and average ranks of
the countries based on linear extensions for the
partial order
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Applications
Partial Order Theory
Hasse Diagram Technique (HDT)
The average rank and the ranking interval of the
countries base on the partial order
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Proposed Method for Modeling
Stability and Sustainability
Definition. A system is called sustainable, if it
is dynamically stable and non-chaotic, subject to
the constraints (standards, tolerance levels,
thresholds, etc.) levied upon its components
(which in our case are EES components).

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Proposed Method for Modeling
Chaos
Nonlinearity Sensitivity to the
parameters Self-similarity Deterministic
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Proposed Method for Modeling
An Example Predator Prey Model
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Proposed Method for Modeling
An Example Predator Prey Model
Bifurcation diagram (T vs. ß) for a1.0, µ0.6,
d0.5.
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Proposed Method for Modeling
An Example Predator Prey Model
Policy space for the system in which the system
is stable, when µ0.1
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Conclusions

• SD Is a Qualitative Value.
• Transport Plays a Key Role in SD Studies.
• Quantification Attempts
• Assessment / Modeling
• Elasticity Is a More Comprehensive Indicator

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Conclusions
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Conclusions

• Multi-Criteria Approaches Are Useful Tools in the
  SD Assessments.
• A Dynamical Definition of SD Can Be a Useful
  Method for Policy Making.

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Thank you
The End