Cochise College CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH

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Cochise CollegeCENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH

• Economic Outlook
• Benson, AZ

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Are we in a recession?
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Gross Domestic Product
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
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Inflation (CPI)
Compared to same month previous year
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The Local Economy

• Is Cochise County in Recession? Benson?

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Retail Sales Growth
Inflation Adjusted
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Benson Retail Sales Tax CollectionsThe Wal-Mart
Effect
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Retail Sales Outlook

• Sales are at historical highs due primarily to
  Wal-Mart
• Slowdown is expected
• Higher base
• Gas prices
• Inflation
• Recessionary concerns

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Restaurant and Bar Sales Growth (Monthly)
Inflation Adjusted
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BensonRestaurant Bar Sales Growth (Annual)
Inflation Adjusted
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Restaurant and Bar Sales Outlook

• Trend in recent years has been downward
• Nonessential spending cut from family budgets
• Recessionary fears encourage families to cut
  spending
• Inflationary pressures force families to cut
  spending

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Accommodation Sales Growth (Monthly)
Inflation Adjusted
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Benson Accommodation Sales Growth (Annual)
Inflation Adjusted
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Benson Accommodation/Restaurant Bar Sales
Growth (Annual)
Inflation Adjusted
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Accommodation Sales Outlook

• Expect slowdown, partly due to higher base
• Increased competition will put downward pressure
  on room rates
• Declining dollar will lure international tourism
• Gas prices will alter tourism patterns
• Fort Huachuca unaffected by general economy
• Recent trends appear to be downward

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Employment
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Unemployment Rates
Jan-Apr only seasonally adjusted
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Monthly Unemployment
Seasonally Adjusted
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Cochise CountyMonthly Labor Force/Employment
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Cochise CountyMonthly Nonfarm Job Growth
Compared to same month previous year
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Cochise CountyNonfarm Job Growth By Industry
12 months ending April 2008
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Employment Outlook

• Continued slow job growth/job losses
• Rising unemployment

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Housing, Real Estate, and Commercial Construction
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New Home Construction
SFR Permits
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Recent SFR Permit Activity

• Benson
• Jan-Apr 08 32
• 2007 (Entire Year) 25
• Cochise County
• Jan-Mar 08 121
• Jan-Mar 07 125

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Existing Home Sales

• Benson homes listed on Tucson Area MLS (TAMLS)
  and Southeast Arizona MLS (SAMLS)
• SAMLS accounts for 25 of market
• Active listings show little difference between
  Benson homes on TAMLS and SAMLS
• Jun 08 Median Price (TAMLS) 188,500
• Jun 08 Median Price (SAMLS) 186,000
• Difference 1.3

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Existing Home Sales (Growth)
Jan-Apr only compared to same period the year
prior
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Median Home Price
Jan-Apr only compared to same period the year
prior
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Housing Market Outlook

• New home market may have bottomed out in 2007
• Existing home market has not yet hit bottom
• Possible return to normal growth conditions in
  2008/2009

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Commercial Construction (Benson)
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Commercial Construction Outlook

• Expect slowdown
• Current projects will be completed
• Recession fears will cause firms to delay new
  projects

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Conclusion

• Nationally
• Slowed economic growth
• Rising unemployment
• Inflation/stagflation
• Locally
• Slowdown of sales across categories
• Slowed job growth/job losses and rising
  unemployment
• Partial recovery of new home market
• Existing home market will hit bottom in 2008,
  recover in 2009

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