Wichita MSA Employment by Industry Sector, 2006

1
Wichita 2008 Review 2009 Forecast Rob Allison,
Interim Director Center for Economic Development
and Business Research W. Frank Barton School of
Business Wichita State University October 7, 2008
2
Center for Economic Development and Business
Research
Slides are available for all of todays
presentations under the 2008 Economic Outlook
Conference link.
3
National versus Wichita MSA

• Disconnect?

4
National Economic Landscape

• Topics include
• Economic growth
• Inflation
• Housing construction
• Manufacturing
• Financial situation
•  
• Wichita employment forecast for 2009 by industry
  sector.

5
National Economic Landscape

• Topics include
• Economic growth
• Inflation
• Housing construction
• Manufacturing
• Financial situation
•  
• Wichita employment forecast for 2009 by industry
  sector.

6
U.S. Economy Advances at a Sluggish Pace
U.S. Gross Domestic Product
Percent Change (Real 2000)
Data Source Bureau of Economic Analysis
Recession
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(No Transcript)
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Wichita Area Outlook Team

• Sufficient liquidity for business activities
• Appropriately tightening credit standards

9
Consumer Price Index
July 2008
Year-over-Year Percent Change
Data Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
10
Import Price Index and Producer Price Index
Commodity Data
Import Price Index
Index Value
Data Source Bureau of Economic Analysis
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WSU Current Conditions Index
Data Source CEDBR, Wichita State University
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WSU Leading Economic Indicators Index
Data Source CEDBR, Wichita State University
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Personal Per Capita Income Growth
Wichita Personal Per Capita Income as a Percent
of U.S.
Wichita, 39,210 United State 38,564
Data Source Bureau of Economic Analysis
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Total All JobsWage and Salary Employment
15
Labor Market Forecast 2009

• Employment
• Up 2.0
• or
• 6,095 jobs

16
Employment Industry Sectors
2,850 565 2,250 430 6,095

• I. Production
• II. Trade, Transportation, Utilities
• III. Service
• IV. Government

17
Wichita MSA Employment and Earningsby Industry
Sector, 2007
Earnings
Employment
Data Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
18
Employment Industry Sectors

• I. Production
• Natural Resources, Mining, Construction
• Manufacturing
• II. Trade, Transportation and Utilities
• III. Service
• IV. Government

19
Wichitas Housing Market Has Avoided Many Housing
Bubble Problems
Inventory of Existing Homes Available for Sale
Months Supply
Data Source National Association of Realtors
South Central Kansas MLS Ratio of active new
home listings to new home sales, seasonally
adjusted
20
Consistent Appreciation in Home Values
Data Source Wichita State University, Center For
Real Estate, 2009 Wichita Housing Market
Forecast Year-over-year percentage change as
measured using 4th quarter values
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Construction Projects

• INTRUST Arena
• WaterWalk
• Cessna
• Spirit
• Sumner County casino
• Via Christi hospital in west Wichita
• Parkstone

22
Natural Resources, Mining and ConstructionWage
and Salary Employment
23
Natural Resources, Mining and Construction
Forecast 2009

• Employment
• Up 2.7
• or
• 450 jobs

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Employment Industry Sectors

• I. Production
• Natural Resources, Mining, Construction
• Manufacturing
• Durable Goods
• Non-Durable Goods
• II. Trade, Transportation and Utilities
• III. Service
• IV. Government

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Worldwide Deliveries in 2007 Best Since 1981
4,272 Deliveries in 2007
Recession
Data Source General Aviation Manufacturing
Association
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U.S. Air Carrier Traffic StatisticsRevenue
Passenger Ton-Miles
Revenue Passenger Ton-Miles in Billions
Recession
Data Source U.S. Department of Transportation,
Research and Innovative Technology
Administration, Airline Data and Statistics,
Annual Air Carrier Traffic Statistics
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Durable Goods ManufacturingWage and Salary
Employment
28
Durable Goods Manufacturing Forecast 2009

• Employment
• Up 4.3
• or
• 2,500 jobs

29
Non-Durable Goods ManufacturingWage and Salary
Employment
30
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing Forecast 2009

• Employment
• Down -1.2
• or
• -100 jobs

31
Employment Industry Sectors

• I. Production
• II. Trade, Transportation and Utilities
• Wholesale Trade
• Retail Trade
• Transportation , Warehousing, Utilities
• III. Service
• IV. Government

32
Wholesale TradeWage and Salary Employment
33
Wholesale TradeForecast 2009

• Employment
• Up 1.8
• or
• 200 jobs

34
Retail TradeWage and Salary Employment
35
Retail TradeForecast 2009

• Employment
• Up 0.8
• or
• 250 jobs

36
Taxable Retail Sales(billions )
37
Inflation Adjusted Taxable Retail Sales
(billions )
38
Transportation and UtilitiesWage and Salary
Employment
39
Transportation and UtilitiesForecast 2009

• Employment
• Up 1.4
• or
• 115 jobs

40
Employment Industry Sectors

• I. Production
• II. Trade, Transportation and Utilities
• III. Service
• Information
• Financial Activities
• Professional and Business Services
• Educational and Health Services
• Leisure and Hospitality
• Other Services
• IV. Government

41
InformationWage and Salary Employment
42
Information Forecast 2009

• Employment
• Down -0.8
• or
• -50 jobs

43
Financial ServicesWage and Salary Employment
44
Financial ServicesForecast 2009

• Employment
• Up 0.9
• or
• 100 jobs

45
Professional and Business ServicesWage and
Salary Employment
46
Professional and Business ServicesForecast 2009

• Employment
• Up 3.4
• or
• 1,025 jobs

47
Education and Health Care ServicesWage and
Salary Employment
48
Education and Health Care ServicesForecast 2009

• Employment
• Up 1.6
• or
• 700 jobs

49
Health practitioners vacancies
50
Leisure and Hospitality ServicesWage and Salary
Employment
51
Leisure and Hospitality ServicesForecast 2009

• Employment
• Up 1.4
• or
• 400 jobs

52
Other ServicesWage and Salary Employment
53
Other ServicesForecast 2009

• Employment
• Up 0.7
• or
• 75 jobs

54
Employment Industry Sectors

• I. Production
• II. Trade, Transportation and Utilities
• III. Service
• IV. Government

55
GovernmentWage and Salary Employment
56
GovernmentForecast 2009

• Employment
• Up 1.1
• or
• 430 jobs

57
Challenges/Risks to the 2009 Employment Forecast

• Financial sector instability
• Escalating energy prices
• Further increases in core inflation
• Workforce issues including prolonged work
  stoppages
• And geopolitical shocks.

58
Market Dynamics Support the Momentum of Wichitas
Economic Expansion

• Aircraft manufacturing order backlogs underlie
  the expectation of continued employment growth
• Relative strength in Wichitas housing market
  with consistent appreciation in home values
• And, sufficient liquidity for regional business
  activities.

59
Labor Market Forecast 2009

• Employment
• Up 2.0
• or
• 6,095 jobs

60
Wichita 2008 Review 2009 Forecast