SoCal Outlook Presentation 12496

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TTMA
2004-4 Travel Trends Update Presented
by December 2, 2004
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Lauren Schlau Consulting

• Travel Tourism Market Research since 1978 at
  SDCVB LSC since 1992
• TTMA Past Pres.
• CalTIA Executive Board
• Consult to CVBs and others in travel industry
• Visitor conversion, economic impact, ad
  effectiveness ROI studies
• Needs a vacation

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Gemini U.S. Local Economy

• Jobs, GDP, retail sales, travel UP but.
• Higher Prices/Fuel Costs
• Rising Interest Rates
• Inconsistent Consumer Confidence/ insecurity
• Value Obsessed Travelers
• Last Minute Bookings

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Worldwide No. America Tourism
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U.S. Travel Volume in U.S.
Domestic Person Trips and International Visitors
(millions)
Source Travel Industry Association
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7
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5
9
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Southern California Pie

• 22.2 Mil. People In Southern California
• More than 7.5 Mil. Households
• About 10.1 Mil. Employees
• Estimated 286,000 Hotel/Motel Rooms
• SoCal is about 61 of the State 22.2 mm. Of
  36.1 mm. Calif. Population 10.1 mm. Of 16.2 mm.
  Calif. Employees

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So Cal Travel Volume
Millions
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SoCal Ports of Entry-All Overseas
Millions
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So Cal Ports of Entry - Japan
Millions
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SoCal Ports of Entry - U.K.
Millions
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Domestic Air Travel To SoCal
Millions
Initiated Air Trips To Southern California (OD1a)
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So Cal U.S. Air Origin Markets
(Initiated Air Trips To Southern California -
OD1a)
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SoCal Visitor Spending (Billions)
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Visitors To Southern California in 2004
(Overnight)

• 46.5 mill. overnight visitors (4.3)
• 88 (41 mil) domestic, 12 (5 mil) international
• So Cal Visitors spent 24 billion (7.6)
• 25 million stayed in a hotel or motel (53)
• 18 million arrived by air

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SoCal Hotel Market So Cal 223,300 Rooms
Rooms
PKF Consulting Inc. 2004 Lodging Industry
Forecast
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2004-05 SoCal Visitor Forecast

• Visitors46.5 M (Prelim. 2004) 4.647.5 - 48
  M (2005 Forecast) 2.2-3
• International Visitors5.3 M (Prelim 2004)
  5.75.6 - 5.9 M (2005 Forecast) 6 to 10
• Domestic Visitors41.2 M (Prelim. 2004)
  3.541.9 - 42.1 M (2005 Forecast) 1.7 to 2.4
• Spending24.2 B (Prelim. 2004) 7.625.6 -
  26.1 B (Forecast 2005) 5.7-7.8
  Source CIC Research

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Research Resources

• Tourism WTO, PATA IACVB, TIA, CalTour, OTTI
• Transportation ATA, NTA, Amtrak, AAA, Airports
• Attractions Attractions news, National State
  Parks museums
• Economy US Government, local Colleges,
• Demographics US Census (from national to census
  block level)
• Hotels PKF Consulting, Smith Travel Research,
  AHLA, City (for TOT)

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Examples of Gemini Trends

• Whats real Mickey Mouse will be the 2005 Rose
  Bowl Grand Marshall
• More airlines dropping first class. While at
  the same time
• Corporate Jets Making A Comeback deliveries are
  up 10 due to tax benefits and airport hassles
• Anyway, happy planning ?

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Thank You Very Much !
www.lsconsult.com