LWG Assessment of DOEs Energy Portfolio

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LWG Assessment of DOEs Energy Portfolio
George Crabtree Argonne National Laboratory
Basic Energy Sciences Advisory Committee Aug 3,
2006
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Motivation

• We have not done as good a job as we should in
  coordinating the activities of the ESE offices.
  We have not done as good a job as we should in
  performing the crosscutting analysis we need to
  justify our budgets to the Congress.

David Garman Under Secretary for Energy, Science
and Environment Senate Confirmation Hearing April
6, 2005
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LWG Organization

• Under Secretaries for ST
• Energy
• Science

David Garman
Ray Orbach
John SullivanAssociate Under Secretary for
EnergyJames Decker Deputy Director, Office of
ScienceCo-Chairs
RD Council
EERE, FE, NE, OE, Science (Pat Dehmer)
Don McConnell George Crabtree Co-Chairs 30
participants from Natl Labs
ST Integration Working Group
ST Laboratory Working Group
ST Analysts
Ad-Hoc ST Analysis Teams
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LWG Participants
Part I Context
Charryl L Berger (LANL) Mary Neu (LANL) James
Ekmann (NETL) Joe Strakey (NETL) Bobi Garrett
(NREL) Ray Stults (NREL) Gordon Michaels (ORNL)
James Roberto (ORNL) Mike Davis (PNNL) Doug
Ray (PNNL) Margie Tatro (SNL) Terry Michalske
(SNL) Paul Deason SRNL
Don McConnell (Battelle/PNNL) George Crabtree
(ANL) Mark Peters (ANL) J. Murray Gibson
(ANL) John (Patrick) Looney (BNL) Doon Gibbs
(BNL) Ralph Bennett (INL) J.W. (Bill) Rogers
(INL) Mark Levine (LBNL) Heinz Frei (LBNL)
Jane C. S. Long (LLNL) Julio Friedmann (LLNL)
Co-Chairs
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Program Scope
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Charge to Laboratory Working Group (LWG)
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Multi-year Process

• FY05 (for FY07 programs) applied energy programs,
  qualitative impact
• FY06 (for FY08 programs) quantitative
  impact, relation to science, risk
• FY07 (for FY09 cycle) model analysis
• FY08 (for FY10 cycle)

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The Context Advancing Four, Broad National
Energy Policy Goals

• Diversify our energy mix and reduce dependence on
  foreign petroleum, thereby reducing vulnerability
  to disruption and increasing the flexibility of
  the marketto meet U.S. needs
• Reduce greenhouse gas emissionsand other
  environmental impacts(water use, land use,
  criteria pollutants) from our energy production
  and use
• Create a more flexible, more reliableand higher
  capacity U.S. energy infrastructure, thereby
  improving energy services throughout the economy,
  enabling use of diverse sources, and improving
  robustness against disruption
• Improve the energy productivity(or energy
  efficiency) of the U.S. economy

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Our assessment highlighted six headline
conclusions as to DOEs energy ST portfolio
From the LWG Report

• The highest leverage approach to reducing
  petroleum imports lies in transportation fuel
  switching and efficiency improvements
• DOEs portfolio includes technology options that
  offer routes to near to mid term material impact
  (clean Diesel, hybrids, ethanol)
• Attractive longer-term options may be feasible
  with significant, but likely achievable,
  scientific advances (cellulosic ethanol, fuel
  cells, energy storage)
• Material reductions in carbon emissions depend on
  progress in zero net emission electric
  generation options, and fuel switching /
  efficiency improvements throughout the economy
• DOEs applied RD portfolio can materially
  improve available technology options in the near
  to mid term (building technology, hybrid electric
  drives, biofuels, advance nuclear, zero emissions
  fossil)
• Emerging scientific advances offer credible
  promise of transforming / breakthrough
  technologies in the longer term (Utility scale
  solar, bio-energy feedstocks, bio-mimetic energy
  conversion)

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Our assessment highlighted six headline
conclusions as to DOEs energy ST portfolio
From the LWG Report

• Several areas of science offer great promise for
  advances that could transform energy technology
• Design and synthesis of materials exploiting
  nanoscale understanding
• Predictive modeling of complex systems
• Scattering facilities for in-situ molecular
  characterization
• Two areas of science may merit consideration for
  increased attention within the portfolio
• Systems and synthetic biology
• Catalysis / separations of chemical
  transformations

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Our assessment highlighted six headline
conclusions as to DOEs energy ST portfolio
From the LWG Report

• There are two significant gaps in the portfolio
  that may retard progress towards national goals
  
• CO2 sequestration science technology
• Next-generation electric grid technologies
• Refining RD portfolio management practices could
  accelerate progress and create a pipeline of
  innovations targeted on national priorities
• Focus on defining critical outcomes to impact
  national goals
• Strengthen horizontal / crosscutting integration
• Align research strategies across the spectrum of
  technology maturity from discovery to technology
  deployment
• Consider use-inspired science initiatives to
  drive breakthrough discoveries into applications

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Reductions in petroleum imports pivot on
transportation fuel switching and vehicle
energy efficiency improvements
From the LWG Report
Transportation
Ethanol from sugar Cellulosic ethanol
Bio-diesel
Biofuels
Oil Shales Coal Liquifaction Enhanced
oil recovery Heavy crude processing
Alternative Liquids
Fuel switching

• Hybridization Electrical energy storage
• Auxiliary power options

Electric Substitution
Propulsion Options
High Efficiency Diesels Hybridization
Plug-in hybrids
Efficiency
Lightweight structures / materials
Electrification of auxiliaries Efficient
conversion systems
Vehicle Systems
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Advances in the electrical system play a major
role in achieving national goals for
reducing environmental impacts from energy and
increasing energy reliability
From the LWG Report
Electricity System
ALWR Closed fuel cycle International
reactor High temperature reactor LWR
Nuclear
Future Gen Sequestration Advanced
gasification Zero-emission combustion
Zero emission fossil
Fuel switch
Wind low speed off-shore
Photovoltaic Concentrating solar Storage
Bio power
Renewable
Advanced TDcomponents
Energy storage High temperature
superconductivity Power electronics Fault
current limiters
Reliable secure delivery
Grid monitoring Computational modeling
Real time visualization
Visualization modeling
DG interconnection MicroGrids Sensors
real-time controls
Responsive loads real-time controls
Zero-energy buildings Solid-state
lighting Efficient integrated system
Buildings
Efficiency
Recycle gasification by-product
Efficient processing Novel manufacturing
systems Efficient conversion systems
Industrial
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Mission impact requires translation from
discovery to innovation to the market
From the LWG Report

• DOE RD faces two broadly recognized gaps
• Translation of new concepts arising out of basic
  research to conceptual stage but targeted RD
• Translation of near-mature technologies from
  working prototypes to commercial deployment
• Both of these are bi-directional issues
• Basic science creates entirely new technology
  possibilities
• Technology efforts identify key issues requiring
  improved scientific understanding or new
  approaches
• Improving technology performance suggests new
  deployment opportunities
• Market feedback helps set technology performance
  requirements

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From the LWG Report
The LWG viewed energy ST as a continuum with
critical roles for DOEs Science and Applied
Energy portfolios

• Co-development
• Scale-up research
• At-scale Demonstration
• Cost reduction
• Prototyping
• Manufacturing RD
• Deployment support

• Basic research for fundamental new understanding,
  the science grand challenges
• Development of new tools, techniques, and
  facilities, including those for advanced modeling
  and computation

• Basic researchfor new understanding specifically
  to overcome short-term showstoppers in the DOE
  technology programs

• Research with the goal of meeting technical
  targets, with emphasison the development,
  performance, cost reduction, and durability of
  materials and components oron efficient
  processes
• Proof of technology concept

• Goal new knowledge / understanding
• Mandate open-ended
• Focus phenomena
• Metric knowledge generation

• Goal practical targets
• Mandate restricted to target
• Focus performance
• Metric milestone achievement

Office of Science
Applied Energy Programs
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Issues for Next Cycle Technology

• Interaction of energy sources fuel switching
• Coal-gas-nuclear-renewable for electricity
• Petroleum-biofuel for transportation
• Alternative transportation energy options
• Interaction of energy chains
• Electricity-petroleum-natural gas-biofuel-hydrogen
  
• Quantitative analysis of energy system
• Market inertia, ripple effect across sources and
  chains

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Issues for Next Cycle Science

• Greater analysis of science for energy solutions
• Achieve revolutionary breakthroughs, not
  evolutionary increments factor of 10, not 10
• Look beyond existing technology-centric
  directions
• New approaches for managing the basic-applied
  interface
• Establish greater synergy
• Maintain separate identities
• Emphasize discovery science distinct from
  use-inspired basic research
• Advance the frontier - small, fast, complex, . .
  .
• New knowledge ? unexpected new uses
• What are the grand challenges of discovery
  science?

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The role of science
Basic Science Vision
Incremental advances in the state of the art of
existing energy technologies will not meet the
nation's future energy and environmental security
challenges. Revolutionary innovations are
needed, both in the energy technologies
themselves and in our understanding of the
fundamental science that enables their operation.
Vibrant fundamental science programs generate
revolutionary innovations in two ways (i) by
discovery-driven advances in the frontier of
knowledge, enabling new paradigms and unexpected
opportunities for disruptive energy technologies,
and (ii) by use-inspired research targeting
specific areas where incomplete understanding
blocks technological progress. DOE should
maintain strong programs in both areas that
sustain US leadership in science. Basic-applied
interactions are a fertile source of innovation.
DOE should develop new ways to stimulate
translational research and creative connections
across the basic-applied interface.
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Basic Science Frontiers

• High Performance Materials
• Science at the nanoscale, especially
  low-dimensional systems
• Dynamics of physical, chemical and biological
  phenomena
• Emergent behavior in complex systems, from high
  Tc superconductors to pattern formation in
  chemical solutions to self-assembly and
  self-repair
• Catalysis and control of chemical transformation
• Molecular to systems level understanding of
  living systems
• Biomimetics and photobiological energy conversion
• Molecular scale understanding of interfacial
  science, separations, and permeability in
  physical systems and membranes
• New Tools for
• In situ molecular characterization
• Theory/Computation/Numerical Applications

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Back up slides
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Our analyses focused on innovation strands
augmented by cross-cutting system assessments
From the LWG Report
Distribution
Use
Electric Gridof the Future
Industrial Technologies
Advanced Building Systems
Vehicle Technologies
Future Electricity Systems Assessment
Future Liquid Fuels Systems Assessment
Future Hydrogen Gaseous Fuels Systems Assessment
Cross-cutting / Enabling Science and Technology
Opportunities Challenges
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Goal 1 Energy Supply DiversityTransportation
efficiency fuel switching offer
the most significant opportunities to reduce oil
imports
Maximum Market Potential
Other3 quads 6
Industrial 11 quads 21

Transportation37 quads 73
Three options offer the most significant
opportunities to offset transportation fuel
demands on imported petroleum
2025 Petroleum Demand 51 Quads
Additional opportunities exist to offset
industrial demand
Maximum Market Potential
Alternative liquids outlook is based on current
industry estimates
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Goal 2 Significant reductions in CO2 emissions
require a broad suite of options
Non Trans Fuel Feedstocks 556 mmt
Electricity 889 mmt
Projected 2025 Carbon Emissions In million
metric tons (mmt)
Transportation, 706 mmt
Emerging fuel options require assessment on a
Life Cycle Basis
Point of Use Basis
Bioethanol
Alternative Liquids
Vectors are directionally correct Magnitude
estimated pending life cycle emission analysis
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Options for addressing CO2 also offer benefits
in reducing the demand for natural gas imports
Alternative electric generation options offers
offsets to increasing natural gas imports
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Basic-Applied Research
What are the goals? Translation of applications
from basic to applied 50 efficient quantum dot
solar cell Cost competitive superconducting
wire Develop disruptive approach to grand
energy challenges Make an electronic switch ?
information revolution Store 24 GWh of
electrical energy for 24 hours Personal
transportation at 1/10th cost of cars What are
the attributes? Integrated basic-applied PI
teams Integrated basic-applied management
teams Tap the best scientists/engineers
innovative thinkers, receptive to new ideas and
people Objectives are innovation driven, not
time-scale driven Stable program 10 year
life International network of workshops and
visitors to create community and stimulate fresh
perspective Periodic review by top
scientists/engineers outside DOE Examine other
innovation machines for organizational
inspiration DARPA, Bell Labs, Google, Microsoft,
Apple, Xerox Parc