Bullish Emile ServanSchreiber NewsFutures, Inc

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Bullish!Emile Servan-SchreiberNewsFutures,
Inc
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NewsFutures, Inc

• Founded in 2000
• Auto financed Profitable
• Nine employees
• Two public exchanges (40,000 markets)
• Corporate clients in US, Europe and Asia

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Business Models
Prediction Trader Panels Corporate Markets
Public Markets
Technology Licensing
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Launch Fall 2000
36,000 registered traders
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Launch Fall 2004
10,000 registered traders
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Customers in Various Industries
Pharmaceuticals Automobile Insurance Food Adver
tising Publishing Consumer Appliances Cable T
en Fortune 1000 clients
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Revenue Streams
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Popular Corporate Applications

• Sales forecasting
• Price forecasting
• Project / Product prioritization
• Product / Feature selection
• Regulatory monitoring
• Prediction Decision markets

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What we are learningalong the way
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Its not only about accuracy
Its not only about Its also (mostly?)
about Accuracy Community -
Dialogue Liquidity Being heard -
Listening Money Focus Getting on
board Incentives Knowledge Business
Value Software User-friendly
design Trading (Job security)
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Its not only about accuracy
Its not only about Its also (mostly?)
about Accuracy Community -
Dialogue Liquidity Being heard -
Listening Money Focus Getting on
board incentives Knowledge Business
Value Software User-friendly
design Trading (Job security) Experimental
Economics Psychology
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Markets as Brains
Intelligence
Accuracy

• In both cases
• Intelligence emerges from interaction of many
  relatively dumb parts
• Learning by reinforcement pruning improves
  performance

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What can we do together?

• Commercial / Non-commercial software licenses
• Scientific collaborations
• Experiments
• Public or corporate data analysis
• New, business-relevant research questions
• Trader psychological profiles (real money / play
  money)
• Incentives (short term long term)
• Trader Motivations
• Trading styles
• Longitudial studies market as learning system

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Contact us!
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0-100 Markets
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Multiple-Outcome Marketswith automatic arbitrage
(Patent Pending)
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Pharmaceutical IndustryTrends 2003Markets
sponsored by eLilly
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Operational Details

• Participants were several hundred people
  recruited form the general population of
  NewsFutures.com traders.
• Markets operated with virtual money, but with a
  10,000 cash prize to split among the 10 most
  successful traders.

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Will a law be passed allowingdrug
re-importation?
President Bush says that he wants a bill on his
desk by Jul 4th.
Result No
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Will a new drug benefit be introducedunder
Medicare?
President Bush says that he wants a bill on his
desk by Jul 4th.
Late night arm twisting as the House
of Representative votes on the Medicare bill
Result Yes
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By how much will access to physiciansincrease or
decrease (2002 vs 2003)?
By how much will access to physiciansincrease or
decrease (2002 vs 2003)?
Result 7.4 (sales force headcount increase
for top-10 pharma companies)
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How many New Molecular Entitieswill be approved
by the FDA in 2003?
Result 21