The Planning of Urban Energy and Environmental Systems

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The Planning of Urban Energy and Environmental
Systems

• Health and Economic Assessment of Air Pollution
  in Dhaka, Bangladesh
• Md. Murshid Aktar and Koji Shimada
• Ritsumeikan University
• Date September 22, 2005
• Session II Urban Atmospheric Environment
• Time 1530-1550
• Place K309- Epoch Building, Ritsumeikan
  University (BKC)
• The 2nd Seminar of JSPS-VCC
• 22-23 September 2005

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Purpose of the Study

• Considering
• a serious air pollution situation in Dhaka city
  
• no effort to assess the health damage by it.
• Trying to
• Clarify the correlation between air pollution and
  premature deaths
• Quantify the benefits from air pollution
  mitigation.

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Dhaka City
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Main Issues

• Establish Concentration Response (CR) Function of
  Mortality for Dhaka City
• Estimate the Health Impact by Air Pollution,
  Using Its Own CR Function
• Economic Valuation of Health Impact by Air
  Pollution

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Establish Concentration Response Function (CRF)
of Deaths for Dhaka

• Methodology
• Data Collection
• (Sep. 2002 Dec. 2004)
• Model Specification
• Estimating CRF for Dhaka

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Establish Concentration Response Function (CRF)
of Death for Dhaka

• Data Collection
• Air Pollutants
• Air Quality Monitoring Project
• Department of environment, Dhaka
• Weather Data
• Bangladesh Meteorology Department
• Premature Deaths
• Dhaka Medical College Hospital

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Proposed annual average standard 30ppb
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Daily 24 Hours Average Concentration of PM10 With
Proposed 24 Hours and Annual Standard
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Descriptive Statistics of VariablesSept15, 2002
- Dec31, 2004
Daily mini temp, avg temp and rain fall is
observed insignificant, therefore excluded from
the core model.
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Model specification

• Poisson Maximum Likelihood Model
• OLS Model

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Regression Results for Poisson (ML)
ModelDependent Variable Mortality
Significant at 5 level, Significant at 1
level, Significant at 0.01 level Values
in Parenthesis show the z statistics, Numbers
in subscript of 1st column show the lag days
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Regression Result for OLS Model Dependent
Variable Log (Mortality)
Significant at 95 level, Significant at 99
level, Significant at 95 level Values
in Parenthesis show the t statistics, Numbers
in subscript in 1st Column show the Lag Days.
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Relative Risk (RR) and Concentration Response
Function (CRF) of Death for Dhaka

• CRF From Poisson Regression
• Change in Mortality 0.065 Change in PM10
  POP Exposed
• CRF From OLS Regression Model
• Change in Mortality 0.062 Change in PM10
  POP Exposed

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Comparison of Daily Mortality Study for Selected
Developing Country Studies
a. TSP value is converted to PM10 as PM10 0.55
TSP.
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Comparison of Daily Mortality Study from
Multi-City Analysis
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Estimating Quantifiable Health Impact by Air
Pollution in Dhaka City

• Annual Average of PM10 (2004) 137 µg/m3
• Population (02) exposed in Dhaka city
• 5.38 Million. (BBS2003)
• Crude Mortality Rate per 1000 persons
• 4. (BBS2003)
• The Coefficient Of CRF for Mortality associated
  with 10µg/m3 change in PM10 0.65
• ?Total Number of Death to be saved each year,
  if PM10 is reduced to Proposed National standard
  1,210

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Economic Valuation of Health Benefits

• Willingness to Pay (WTP) approach is used for
  valuing health impact.
• Estimates of WTP to reduce risk of death does not
  exist in Bangladesh.
• Transfer of WTP estimates from US to Bangladesh.
• Most conservative WTP estimates are taken from
  available literature.

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Transferring WTP Estimates from US to Dhaka City

• Where,
• WTPD WTP Estimate of Death for Dhaka City
• WTPUS WTP Estimate of Death for US
• PGNI Per Capita Gross National Income
• eD Income Elasticity of WTP of Death of Dhaka
• Income elasticity of 1 provides conservative
  estimates
• Value of Statistical Life (VSL) estimated by
  Desvosges et al.(1998) is 3.3 million in 1990 US
  dollar equivalent.
• Using above Equation, this Study estimates
• VSL for Dhaka as US80,170.

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Monetary Benefits from Two Scenarios
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Main Outcomes

• The first time trial in Bangladesh to evaluate
  health impact by air pollution.
• A significant positive correlation between air
  pollution and deaths is found.
• The coefficient of CR function for Death related
  with 10 (?g/m3) changes in PM10 is obtained as
  0.65
• If PM10 conc. is reduced to a proposed national
  standard-
• 1,210 premature deaths could be saved each year
• A yearly economic benefit is about US 97.3
  million (1990 rate)
• The economic benefit is equivalent to 4.1 of
  estimated GNI of Dhaka and 17.5 of the national
  annual health budget.

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Thank You

• For Your Attention
• mmurshida_at_yahoo.com