Title: logi Energy - Larry Ortega CIO/CEO
1logi Energy - Larry Ortega CIO/CEO
Peak Oil Analysis
- Thoughts on Oil
- The Thinking Process - December 2009
212 655-4467 larry_at_logipeakoil.com
2Analysis Approach - Strategic Steps
Oil Price Analysis
Oil Price Direction
Strategies
Positions
Position Hedging
Portfolio Hedging
3Oil Price Analysis - The Bases of Direction
- Current Global Production
- Global Export Modeling
- EIA Data Analysis
- Detailed Futures Pricing Analysis
- Oil Price - Market Effects
- Elliott Wave - Fibonacci Analysis
- Technical Chart Analysis
- Weather Analysis
- Industry Insights EP as well as Transportation
Operations
Oil Prices Where are we in the Oscillation
Cycle?
5 Person Technical Analysis Team Insights from
all 15 Team Members
4Oil Export Model 2005 On - Peak Oil Analyses
- Supply and Demand Cross in 2032 Best Case
(Upper Chart) - Oil Supplied by Exports Expected to Drop at
roughly 1 MMbpd per year (Lower Chart) - Within 2 years, it will drop below World Demand
at the Currently Depressed Usage Rates - Within 5 years, there will be Fuel Rationing in
the US, Europe and Japan
Exports SHOULD meet Needs for Next 2 Years
Source Multiple sources compiled by Samuel
Foucher and Jeffrey Brown
5Oil Price EIA Data Seasonal Effects
- Crude Oil and Gasoline beginning Fall/Winter
Build at Extreme Highs Inventory only to get
worse (Upper Graphs) - Heating Oil Winter Drawdown Starting at 99th
tile. Warm Winter could spell even Higher
Inventory - El Nino Strengthening MORE than expected.
Crude Oil and Gasoline Reserves Expected to Grow
if There is Lack of Use
6Oil Price Market Effects - USO, Oil Comm ETF
- Slowly Crumbling from Oct High - Biased by
Trading Strategy of this ETF - Technical Indicators Percentage Price Oscillator
and Chaikan Money Flow show Weakening
Downtrend
7Oil Price Market Effects - UNG, Nat Gas Comm ETF
- Seasonal Drop from Oct High - Winter Cold Snap
causing bounce back, also Biased by Trading
Strategy of this ETF - Technical Indicators Percentage Price Oscillator
and Chaikan Money Flow show Lack of Strength
Still Downtrend
8Oil Price Market Effects - SPY, SP 500 ETF
- Santa Claus Rally Driving into ascending triangle
- Technical Indicators Percentage Price Oscillator
showing Uncertainty and Chaikan Money Flow shows
Growing Strength
Clear Uptrend - But, Hit a Limit by New Years?
9Oil Price Market Effects - UUP, US Dollar ETF
- Dollar Spikeback - Not Strongly Correlated with
Oil or Gas Price, but having an effect - More
Correlated to SP and Gold - Technical Indicators Percentage Price Oscillator
and Chaikan Money Flow show Growing Strength
Clear Uptrend
10Oil Price Market Effects - GLD, Gold ETF
- Market Forces Spiking Gold Down - Not Strongly
Correlated with Oil or Gas Price - More
Anti-Correlated to Dollar - Technical Indicators Percentage Price Oscillator
and Chaikan Money Flow show Decreasing Strength
STRONG Reversal
11Oil Price Market Effects - DIG, Oil and Gas
Stock ETF
- Oil and Gas Stocks Breaking through Bottom of
Upward Channel - Bounce back points to lower
prices - Technical Indicators Percentage Price Oscillator
and Chaikan Money Flow going strongly negative
Down Spike Imminent?
12Oil Price Futures Pricing - Crack Spreads -
Broken
- Gasoline and 321 Crack Spreads broke down in
late August with excess storage - Crack Spreads hitting Resistance
- Crack Spreads this low means Refinery Margins are
thin and trying to rebound with weather and
Christmas Driving
Crack Spread Leading Indicator of Prices
13Oil Price Elliott Wave - Monthly
- Tracks Fibonacci Based Elliott Wave Responses
Caused by Behavioral Market Responses - Monthly Wave Analysis Expects Price to Drop below
Dec08 Low - Expects Succeeding Up Price Move to go up to 300
to 400 per barrel - Elliott Wave Theorists - DO NOT BELIEVE in Peak
Oil - Predicted Dow 10,000 SP 1100 in March 2009
during Low - Elliott Wave most accurate at describing turn 1
to 2 wks after
Elliott Wave Predicted 120 or more Oil at High
and 45 or less Oil at Low
14Oil Price Technical Analysis
2002 - 2007 Long Term Support - Resistance
2008 - 2009 Short Term Support - Resistance
- Oil Price Action
- Just Below Short Term Support Line
15Oil Price Weather Effects
- El Nino Strengthening MORE than expected
- El Nino (temp gt1deg) was expected to peak at
1.25 deg, now modeled to 1.75 deg - Temperatures MUCH Warmer
- El Nino Strengthening MORE than expected
- Winter Expected to be warmer through March
HO Reserves Expected to Grow with Lack of Use
16Oil Price Industry Insights
- DOT Airline Passenger Seat Miles Down -9.3 over
Last 2 Years - Trucking Firms reporting -5.2 in Oct09 from
Oct08. This was truck Tonnages lowest decrement
since Nov 2008 Sep 09 was -7.3 from Sep 08. - American Association of Railroads reports Rail
Tonnage down -13.7 compared to 08 and -18.2
since 07 - Dow Jones Transportation Average - Triple Top,
Third Top Not as High as Second.
No Uptick in Transportation Expected Overage in
Supplies not Needed Supplies Will Continue to
Build
17Oil Price - Direction Bias next 6 Months
- Current Global Production Down
- Global Export Modeling Neutral
- EIA Data Analysis Down
- Detailed Futures Pricing Analysis Neutral
- Oil Price - Market Effects Down
- Elliott Wave - Fibonacci Analysis Down
- Technical Chart Analysis Possibly Down
- Weather Analysis Down
- Industry Insights EP as well as Transportation
Operations Down
Oil Prices Where are we in the Oscillation
Cycle?
Price Seems to be in the Middle Direction Bias
Pointing Down - Market Headed Down
18Contact
- Larry Ortega
- Chief Investment Officer
- logi Energy
- 212 655-4467
- larry_at_logipeakoil.com
This is not an offer to sell any fund or
securities. Before you invest in markets, please
discuss your decisions with your financial
advisor.