Improving Graduation Rates: Knowing Where to Start

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Improving Graduation RatesKnowing Where to Start

• Gary R. Hanson, Ph.D.
• Senior Research and Policy Analyst
• Institutional Studies and Policy Analysis
• The University of Texas System

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Improving Graduation Rates

• Overview
• Understanding the issues
• Some Universal Wisdom from the research
  literature
• Student flow - Identifying pockets of
  opportunity
• Identifying institutional speed bumps
• Knowing what can change
• Developing a strategy

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Improving Graduation Rates

• From the AASCU Graduation Rates Outcomes Study
• simply finding best practice programs
  somewhere and plugging it in is unlikely to be
  effective.

Source American Association of State Colleges
and Universities (2005). Student Success in
State Colleges and Universities A Matter of
Culture and Leadership.
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The Issues

• Knowing which graduation rate(s) to improve
• Understanding how/when students succeed or fail
• Knowing how the institution contributes to
  student success and failure
• Identifying the barriers to improvement
• Developing strategies to improve graduation rates

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Which Graduation Rate(s) Should We Improve ?
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Which Graduation Rate?

• What is your advertised graduation rate?
• What are the 4- and 6-year graduation rates for
  these student groups?
• First-time-in-college (FTIC)
• Transfer students with 15 hours or 30 hours
• First-generation students
• First-time, full-time, degree-seeking students
• Part-time students
• Students with unmet financial need
• Working students (more than 20 hours)

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What Does It Take?

• How many students lives would you need to
  change each year in order to improve your
  institutional graduation rate by
• 1
• 5
• 10

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Do the Math

• How many first-time-at-your institution
  students did you have in the fall of 2004?N
  ___________
• How many students do you have to keep enrolled
  for the next 6 years to improve your graduation
  rate by 1?N ____________

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What Do We Know?Some Universal Wisdom from
the Research Literature
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What Do We Know?

• If we teach students using the same pedagogy,
  assess them using the same methods, and provide
  the same levels of academic and social support,
  we will achieve the same results ---- and
  graduation rates will NOT change.

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What Do We Know?

• Graduation is the result of a complex set of
  factors that vary by individual student and
  individual institution.

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What Do We Know?
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What Do We Know?

• There are no easy answers or quick fixes.

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Graduation Rate Expectations

• Improving graduation rates is a long and
  difficult task.
• Expect improvements of 1 to 3 any given year.
  (The national average for the annual percentage
  improvement in graduation rates in 2003 was
  3.2.)
• Improving graduation rates must remain a high
  priority for a very long time.

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What Do We Know

• Institutions can influence some, but not all,
  of the factors that contribute to graduation.

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What Do We Know?

• Every student who leaves your institution before
  graduation has MULTIPLE reasons for doing so.

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What Do We Know?

• The intensity and rigor of a students high
  school curriculum, especially mathematics and
  science, is a good predictor of first-year
  performance and graduation.

Source Adelman (1999). Answers in the Tool
Box Academic Intensity, Attendance Patterns,
and Bachelors degree Attainment.
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What Do We Know?

• Academic performance in the first semester or
  year, especially the number of D, F and W
  semester credit hours, is one of the best
  predictors of graduation.

Des Jardins, S., Hanson, G. R., Kroc, R.
(1999). Gatekeeping Courses as Barriers to
Graduation. A paper presented at the 1999
AIR National Forum, Seattle, WA.
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What Do We Know?

• Student financial support (family, institution,
  state and federal) influences retention and
  graduation ONLY when it covers more than 90 of
  the student budget. Below that level, financial
  support has little impact on graduation.

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What Do We Know?

• Good academic advising contributes to graduation
  by preempting or counterbalancing the
  negative consequences of various individual
  choices and institutional barriers.

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What Do We Know?

• Developmental education contributes to graduation
  but only when completed early in the students
  educational career.
• A recent THECB study showed that only 4 of 10
  students (41) in Texas public universities who
  needed math remediation completed it during the
  first year.

Source Texas Higher Education Coordinating
Board (2005). Developmental Math.
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What Do We Know?

• At least some proportion of students fail to
  graduate because of a poor match between student
  learning and faculty teaching. That is, some
  students simply end up in the wrong class with
  the wrong teacher for how they need to learn.

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Knowing What to Look For
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Factors Contributing to Graduation
Policy Factors
People Factors
Graduation
Teaching/Curriculum Factors
Resource Factors
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People Reasons - Students

• How well prepared are your students?
• Can students afford to attend?
• How street-smart are your students?

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People Reasons - Faculty

• How well do your faculty teach?
• Can we improve graduation rates without lowering
  academic standards?
• What role does Academic Darwinism play on your
  campus?
• Why should faculty change HOW they teach?

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People Reasons - Leadership

• Does the leadership of the institution declare
  graduation as an important goal?
• Does the graduation message permeate the
  institution at all levels?
• Does the leadership systematically review
  policies that impact graduation?

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Policy Reasons

• What policies hinder timely graduation?
• Admissions
• Financial aid
• Student promotion and probation
• Faculty grading
• Class availability

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Curriculum / Teaching Reasons

• What are the risks/rewards of changing HOW we
  teach?
• Is our curriculum too diverse? Does it give
  students too many choices?
• How can we better motivate students to attend
  class?
• How do we reward faculty for promoting retention?

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Improving Graduation Rates

• From the AASCU Graduation Rates Outcomes Study
• building a culture of success requires
  attention to data.

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Improving Graduation Rates

• Building indicators that describe success can
  expose hidden ambiguities and clarify action
  requirements
• Indicators can be used to publicly monitor
  progress and be referenced by leaders to both
  deal with problems and celebrate success

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Understanding Student Success and Failure
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Where are the speed bumps?

• What are the pathways through your
  institution?
• Which pathways lead to graduation?
• Which pathways delay graduation or lead out of
  the institution?

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Pathways to GraduationIndicators to Monitor

• Percent of original cohort enrolled each semester
  (traditional retention measure)
• Percent of cohort who attend each long semester
  full-time
• Student flow through the institution by semester
• Cumulative semester credit hours by pattern of
  semesters enrolled
• Distribution of total number of semesters
  enrolled from initial entry to checkpoint
  semester after 4 or 6 years

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Monitoring Pathways Through CollegeExample
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125 of 1,828 6.8
Number Graduated in 4 Years 11 of 125 or 8.8
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126 of 1,685 or 7.5
Number Graduated in 4 Years 15 of 125 or 11.9
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Grad rate 16/35 45.7
Grad rate 8/9 88.9
Grad rate 6/47 12.8
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Speed Bumps on the Road to Graduation

• Academic failure
• The teaching-learning-grading process
• Lack of financial support
• Lack of knowledge about the college process

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Who Leaves and Why?

• What percent of your students who leave have less
  than a 2.0 gpa?
• What percent of the students who leave have at
  least one D, F or W on their transcript?
• What percent of your students who leave have a
  cumulative financial debt greater than 10,000 in
  the first two years?
• What percent of your students left in good
  academic standing, but couldnt stand your
  institutional culture?
• What percent of your students stop out to work
  after any given semester?

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The Relationship of Academic Failure to Retention
and Graduation

• Large percentages of students who leave our
  institutions in the first two years have
  performed poorly.
• Stayers and Leavers were carefully matched on 7
  factors high school class rank, SAT scores,
  major, ethnicity, gender, living on- or
  off-campus and orientation attendance.

Source Ruddock, M., Hanson, G. R., Moss, M.
(1999). New Directions in Student Retention
Research Looking Beyond Interactional Theories
of Student Departure. A paper presented at the
1999 AIR Forum. Seattle, WA.
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Source DesJardins, S. L. Pontiff, H. (1999).
Tracking Institutional Leavers An Application.
AIR Professional File. Association for
Institutional Research, Tallahassee, FL.
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Failing Just One Course

• Receiving a D or F in just one or two
  courses during the first two years of college
  dramatically reduces the chances for graduation.

DesJardins, S. L., Hanson, G.R. Kroc, R. J.
(1999). Gatekeeping Courses as Barriers to
Graduation. A paper presented at the 1999 AIR
Forum. Seattle, WA.
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Teaching-Learning-Grading

• The Teaching-Learning-Grading process is not
  consistent at many institutions and contributes
  to academic failure and lower graduation rates.

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Teaching-Learning-Grading
Hanson, G.R. (1999). Getting to the Heart of the
Matter. A paper presented at the 1999 AIR Forum,
Seattle, WA.
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Hanson, G.R., Norman, P., Caillouet, C. (1999).
Conquering Calculus. Intra-Departmental
Variability in the Efficiency and Effectiveness
of Moving Students Through the Math Curriculum.
A paper presented at the 1999 AIR Forum,
Seattle, WA.
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Hanson, G.R., Norman, P., Caillouet, C. (1999).
Conquering Calculus. Intra-Departmental
Variability in the Efficiency and Effectiveness
of Moving Students Through the Math Curriculum.
A paper presented at the 1999 AIR Forum,
Seattle, WA.
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Money and Graduation
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Money and GraduationFederal Student Loan
Amounts Borrowed by Degree Recipients in 4-year
Public Universities in Constant 2003-04 Dollars
Source ACE Issue Brief, Federal Student Loan
Debt 1993-2004, June 2005.
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Money and Graduation

• Increasing tuition by 1,000 reduces the
  probability of persisting in college by 16 for
  poor students, by 19 for working class students,
  by 9 for middle class students and by 3 for the
  wealthiest students.

Paulsen, M. St. John, E. P. (2002). Social
Class and College Costs Examining the Financial
Nexus Between College Choice and Persistence.
Journal of Higher Education 73(2).
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Money and Graduation

• A 1,000 grant reduces a first-year, low-income
  students probability of dropping out by 23.

Source United States General Accounting Office
(1997). Challenges in Promoting Access and
Excellence in Education. Washington, DC U. S.
Government Printing Office.
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Institutional CultureAll Those Other Factors
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Other Reasons Students Leave
Source Ruddock, M., Hanson, G. R., Moss, M.
(1999). New Directions in Student Retention
Research Looking Beyond Interactional Theories
of Student Departure. A paper presented at the
1999 AIR Forum. Seattle, WA.
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Other Reasons Students Leave
Source Ruddock, M., Hanson, G. R., Moss, M.
(1999). New Directions in Student Retention
Research Looking Beyond Interactional Theories
of Student Departure. A paper presented at the
1999 AIR Forum. Seattle, WA.
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Strategies for Improvement
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Graduation Rates Outcomes Study

• Student success is more a product of an
  overarching shared culture than it is of the
  results of a more narrowly-conceived deliberate
  retention or graduation effort.

Source American Association of State Colleges
and Universities (2005). Student Success in
State Colleges and Universities A Matter of
Culture and Leadership.
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Key Elements of a Success Culture

• A pervasive attitude that all students can
  succeed with high academic standards
• A sense of inclusiveness commonly characterized
  as belonging to a family
• A strongly held sense of institutional mission
  that recognizes the campus as distinctive or
  special

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Key Elements of Leadership

• Leadership is a shared responsibility and is
  embedded within all levels of the campus. There
  are no silos.
• Leadership qualities are more about listening
  than talking and more about consistent personal
  modeling than spectacular public performances.

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Enabling Leadership

• Perhaps the presidents greatest achievement
  is to have created an atmosphere of constant
  assessment and improvement without creating a
  climate of negative judgment and criticism.

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Program Characteristics

• Intentional
• Carefully select faculty and staff
• Develop intrusive programs of intervention
• Require or mandate participation

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Program Characteristics

• Integrated
• Provide both physical and organizational
  structures to connect students with programs and
  services

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Program Characteristics

• Collaborative
• Academic and student affairs collaborate to
  design and deliver learning communities

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Program Characteristics

• Academic
• Faculty role is not confined to instruction and
  formal programming
• Curriculum is deliberately engineered to promote
  student success

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What Can Campus Leadership Do?

• Articulate a collective vision
• Involve the campus community at all levels
• Take stock- Audit your actions
• Act strategically
• Build an information infrastructure to monitor
  progress and provide detailed feedback about what
  works for which student populations
• Invest in the culture
• Monitor new hires
• Socialize new faculty and staff
• Establish a longitudinal student tracking system
• Create rituals that recognize and reward success
• Walk the Talk

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What Can We Change?

• Who we admit
• How we support students
• How and what we teach
• Institutional culture

• Admissions policy
• Financial/academic/social support
• Pedagogy/curriculum/assessment
• Learner-centered, Teaching-centered

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What Does It Take?

• Strong leadership with a clear message that
  graduation rates can and will improve
• FOCUS Deciding what can be changed
• Knowing that it takes the entire academic
  village to change a graduation rate
• Understanding why students fail to graduate in a
  timely manner

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Students Will Graduate When . . .

• They are prepared well
• Financed well
• Advised well
• Taught well