Access to the Global Internet: Which Technology Will Win

1
Access to the Global Internet Which Technology
Will Win?
For most of the world in 5 years (aside from
North America and part of Europe) Phone Cell
Phone Internet Wireless Internet

• Evolution
• 3G builds on existing networks
• Huge volumes
• Global spectrum
• Separate network
• Optimized for voice
• Old technology

• Revolution
• IP networks
• Optimized air interfaces
• Design for converged traffic
• New technology for low cost
• No global spectrum or approval
• No market momentum
• Timing?

2
Industry Directions for Networking
1st GPRS customers
GPRS standards begin
FPLMTS standards begin
1998
1994
1992
1990
1995
2000
3M Internet Users
153M Internet Users
Microsoft ATT still competing with Internet

• Cellular Telecom Approach
• Efforts to define wireless data networking
  standard (General Packet Radio Service - GPRS)
  begin before full impact of Internet explosion is
  felt
• Internet-Based Approach
• Use Internet standards for networking and
  mobility with extensions to interoperate with
  cellular air interfaces (e.g., GPRS, CDMA2000)

3
3G Mobility The Evolutionary Route to
Wireless Data

• Paul Mankiewich and Rich Howard
• Bell Labs, Lucent Technology

4
3G Cellular SystemsThe Enabler of the Global
Internet
First Contact With the Internet for Most People
in the World Will be Wireless
Wireless Networks become the point of access that
funnels end user experience into the Internet
Wireless Network
Internet
5
Integrated Wireless Services--The Vision
GPRS/ EDGE/ TDMA Base Station
Wireless Backbone and Gateways

• codec converter
• bandwidth manager
• store forward
• playback

Multimedia Messaging Server

• integrated
• voice and data
• video postcards
• in-call image
• up/download

UMTS/ CDMA2000 Base Station
Content
Bluetooth
Cable, xDSL, V90 10/100-BaseT
Radio Hub
Location Services
Wi-Fi (WaveLAN)
Wireless PAN
Wireless LAN
6
Migration of Digital Cellular Systems
Circuit-Switched Voice Packet-Switched Data
Packet-Switched
Circuit-Switched
GSM Circuit-Switched Voice
GPRS
Packet Data
EDGE
Packet Voice Data over EDGE
IS-136 Circuit-Switched Voice
IS-136
EDGE
UMTS
GPRS General Packet Radio Service
(17.6 kbps x 8) EDGE Enhanced Data for GSM
Evolution (59.2 kbps x 8) UMTS
Universal Mobile Telecomm Systems
Packet Voice Data over UMTS (WCDMA)
CDMA2000
7
Mobility Subscriber Projections Analyst View
1.3B by 2004
8
The Voice/Multimedia Revenue Gap ( Millions)
Wireless is much worse
Source International Data Corp, 1998/Level 3
9
Consumer Cocktail DoCoMo I-mode

• Service offered - Security trading (2
  traders) - Banking (31 banks) - Travel -
  Concert tickets - News - Network game -
  Total of 1300 I-mode web sites
• Subscriber uptake - Service Launch February
  22, 1999 - 20,000 in March - 100,000 in April
  - 90.000 new subscribers/week in August -
  August 99 1.2 million subscribers (24 million
  DoCoMo users) - E-mail and mobile banking most
  popular

10
I Mode in Japan 6M Subscribers in Under 1 Year
(and the Rate is Increasing)
140,000 new subscribers/week
DoCoMo Website 6/1/2000
11
Wonder Swan

• Hand-held Game Device
• Sold 1.4 M units in Japan in one year
• Email send and receive (SMTP)
• Internet Access (mini-browser)
• Remote download of mini-games

12
Wireless Data in the Japan Market
Applications and Network Capability Linked to
Market Segment Cost of Service is Clearly Low
(10 Yen 8 Cents)
High School Girls 10 YEN P-Mail
Business Professional Value Mail
Capability Speed 64K
Market Segment
Application
64K Dating Connection
H.S. Girl
13
Mobility Data vs Voice

• Almost all traffic (and revenue) is voice
• BUT, mobile data is growing much faster than
  voice
• US is behind Europe and Japan
• Japan is approaching 50 data traffic
• Today systems are circuit switched and spectrally
  inefficient
• 2G systems 600/hour for video or 60/hour
  for MP3
• 3G systems have
• IP backbones
• Lower cost per bit
• Easy service creation
• What will be the services?
• Who will pay the bills?

14
Migration of Digital Cellular Systems
Circuit-Switched Voice Packet-Switched Data
Packet-Switched
Circuit-Switched
GSM Circuit-Switched Voice
GPRS
Packet Data
EDGE
Packet Voice Data over EDGE
IS-136 Circuit-Switched Voice
IS-136
EDGE
UMTS
GPRS General Packet Radio Service
(17.6 kbps x 8) EDGE Enhanced Data for GSM
Evolution (59.2 kbps x 8) UMTS
Universal Mobile Telecomm Systems
Packet Voice Data over UMTS (WCDMA)
CDMA2000
15
Mobility Subscriber Projections by Technology
UMTS
GSM
Subscribers in Thousands
Lucent WNG View
16
3G Data Options
17
Transition to Next Generation Networks
Todays Wireless Networks
Next Generation Networks
Internet / Advanced Services
PSTN
PSTN
Packet Mode Servers High Speed Data, Multimedia,
Voice over IP, etc.
Circuit Mode Servers Voice, LS Circuit Data, etc.
Network Servers
Mobile Switches
MSC
Base Stations
IP / ATM Core Network


Radio Clients

• 99 Mobile Voice
• Circuit Derived

• Universal Services - Voice or Data Wireless or
  Wireline
• Client/Server Model - Internet Derived (IP)

The next generation architecture uses Internet
based client-server platforms to enable universal
services and reduce network cost structure.
18
Services Rollout
3G
Visual, High Speed
Video
Web cam
GPRS
Intranet
WAP launch
Video clips
TV Conference
Music
Web access
Mobile Office Schedule Management Work flow
Management Electronic Conference File Sharing
Interactive TV
Radio
Multi-player Games
Portal Link
m-banking
m-cash
Chat Room
m-stock trading
Picture clips
Information Services
email
SMS
Route planning
4Q1999
4Q2000
1Q1999
4Q2001
19
The Devices are Awesome

• Docomo
• Pocketboard

Samsung MP3 Phone
10
20
Can 3G Deliver?UMTS Capacity Estimates

• Overall about 6x increase over IS-95 for voice
• 3x comes from bandwidth--5 MHz vs 1.25 MHz
• 2x from modulation, coherent detection, and
  signal processing tricks.
• For user rates up to 128 kbps (BER1e-4 )
• 1.8 Mb/sec total for all 3 sectors in 5 MHz of
  spectrum each way.
• About 5.4 Mb/sec/basestation total for a 15 MHz
  up/15 MHz down license
• 42 users/basestation at 128 kbps
• Range 2-3 Km Can cover UK with about 10-20K
  basestations
• Capacity for about 1 of the population at 128
  kbps
• Smart antennas can increase this by at least 4X
• If 10 of the population wanted 128 kbps
  continuous (e.g. MP3)
• 20-40K basestations with 4 antennas in a
  terminal
• Reasonable flat-rate pricing possible

Courtesy Gee Rittenhouse 3/7/00
21
Will UMTS Happen? Results of UK UMTS Spectrum
Auction
License Winner
Price A TIW
UMTS (UK) Limited
4,384,700,000 B
Vodaphone Limited
5,964,000,000 C
BT (3G) Limited
4,030,100,000
D One2One Personal Communications
Limited 4,003,600,000 E
Orange 3G Limited
4,095,000,000
34B says it will! Rest of Europe by Fall
22
Backups
23
Multiple Access Schemes
TDMA Different Time Slots
FDMA Different Carriers
FHSS Orthogonal Time Slots Carriers
CDMA Different Languages
24
Enhanced Data for Global Evolution (EDGE)

• Defines an evolution of GSM and TDMA technologies
  to support high bit rate circuit and packet data
  services
• Builds on GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) air
  interface and network with adaptive modulation
  and coding
• Uses 200 kHz bandwidth channels
• Two versions of EDGE
• EDGE Classic enables full backwards
  compatibility with current GSM (4/12 reuse)
• EDGE Compact enables limited spectrum (deployments
• Channel structure supports
• Peak throughputs up to 474 kbps
• Average throughputs up to 384 kbps (up to 200
  kbps for EDGE Compact with limited spectrum
  deployments)

25
Wireless data network
Macrocell-mobile r3-5 km

• Macrocellular data rates 384 kbps (UMTS-FDD)
• Minicellular data rates 1 Mbps (UMTS-TDD)
• Picocellular data rates 1-20 Mbps (Bluetooth,
  hyperLAN)

BLAST technology used in every one
26
Internet Volume Approaches Voice
Worldwide voice/modem traffic
Show Me The Money!

• Projected

Actual ç
New networks will need to be deployed as demands
for data and interactive services approaches
capacity of existing voice/data networks
Source Internet Society
27
Real Time Services Via GPRS IPPhase 2 - VOIP
Starting at Terminal
IP Client in terminal for Voice and packet data

• Packet Voice (VOIP) starts with an IP Client in
  the terminal, the call model resides in feature
  servers on the IP network.
• Traditional Circuit voice is supported as before.

7REResource Servers
Traditional Circuit voice supported by MSC
To Data and VOIP Gateways
PSTN
ANSI-41 Backbone Network
Call Control Servers
Use Todays Wireless Voice Infrastructure and
Interconnect with the Packet Core Network at a
PSTN trunk level.
28
Enhanced Data for Global Evolution (continued)

• Handoff enabled through reselection procedures
• Current work in ETSI to define VoIP and Real-Time
  services over EDGE in GSM Release 2000
• Phase 1
• Standards Release 99
• Large deployments start in 2002
• Some initial deployments start in 2001
• Supports best effort packet data at speeds up to
  about 384 kbps
• Phase 2
• Standards Release 2000
• Large deployments start in 2003
• Some initial deployments start in 2002
• Will add Voice over IP capability

29
Drivers Of Convergence

• Rapid Technology Advancement and Change
• Chip capacity doubles every 18 mos (Moores Law)
• Fiber Capacity-Distance doubles every 9 mos
• Tremendous Growth Of Data Networking
• Led by the Internet
• Potential To Offer A Wealth Of New Services
• Data services, Voice services, and new services
  that combine both
• The Threat Of Competition
• Deregulation/Privatization
• Defend against attackers in incumbent territories
• Potential to enter previously inaccessible
  territories

30
3G Solution Direction

• One Network delivering Voice and Data services
• Supporting all major 3G Technologies to enable
  operators to meet global market needs
• IP Centric Network Architecture for Internet
  derived services
• Future proof platform that evolves with the IP
  networking industry
• Working with Sun to deliver next generation
  services with carrier grade reliability (99.999)
• Flexible Service Creation
• Provides platform for integration of mobile and
  internet environments
• Rapid service delivery for Lucent developed and
  third party services
• Retain value in wireless network by creating
  operator controlled value added interfaces
• Operators want to be more than an IP pipe
  provider
• Rapid Network Deployment
• Easy to install and maintain
• Self Optimizing
• Integrated maintenance capabilities to reduce
  life cycle costs