Party lists

1
Party lists

• Party lists can be closed, flexible or open
• Closed list Candidate order is fixed by party
• Flexible Voters (can) cast a vote for both list
  and candidate
• Open Vote for candidate determine his rank on
  the party list.

2
District structure

• District A geographic area in which votes are
  aggregated and seats allocated.
• Primary District Smallest district (e.g. U.S.
  House elections)
• Single-tier systems Contains only primary
  districts.

3
District structure

• Secondary Districts Can be partitioned into
  smaller districts.
• Seats usually first allocated in primary
  districts then in secondary.
• Belgium
• Use Hare for allocation in primary district
• In secondary district, divide total vote by won
  seats (in primary) and allocate by highest
  average/divisor and continue by dHondts method

4
District Structure

• Allocation of seats in primary secondary
  districts is thus related.
• Tertiary district also possible (Greece,
  Germany)
• Second and Tertiary (upper-tier) districts
  relatively rare and most are located in Europe

5
The German Electoral System

• Voters cast two votes One for a candidate in a
  single-member district and one for a party list
• A total of 248 legislators are elected in the
  single-member districts.
• Another 248 are allocated based on votes for the
  parties according to PR provided they win a 5 of
  the national vote

6
The German Electoral System

• The allocation of the PR-seats is based on the
  composition of the Bundestag as a whole the
  goal is proportional representation in the
  Bundestag.
• The number of seats a party wins thus depends on
  how many seats the party won in the single-member
  districts
• Additional seats allocated if necessary the
  size of the legislature is variable

7
The Formulaic Structure

• Many electoral systems use more than one
  electoral formula, e.g. Brazil uses dHondt and
  plurality.
• The Formulaic Structure is simply the set of all
  electoral formulas used and their relationship.
  -gt Describes the whole electoral system.

8
The Alliance Structure

• Electoral systems translate votes into seats.
• The allocation of seats may include an
  allocation to cartels, party lists, and/or
  candidates.
• Seats are first allocated to cartels, then
  lists, and finally candidates.

9
The Alliance Structure

• Variation among electoral systems
• Only among candidates (UK, not Japan)
• Lists may exist -gt of votes for party
  determines the number of seats the party wins.
• If a list exists, how are seats allocated among
  candidates
• Party determines order on list (closed list -
  Spain)
• Voters decide (open list - Finland)
• Parties present list but voter can influence
  (flexible list Greece, Iceland)

10
The Alliance Structure

• If cartels exist the same question arises How
  are the cartels seat divided among the cartels
  parties ?
• In practice, voters cast their votes for the
  parties and their votes determine allocation
  (i.e. works like open list)
• Cartels form on basis of a) constituency b)
  party.

11
Thresholds

• At primary district Parties must obtain a
  certain number of votes to be eligible for seats
• At secondary Parties must win seats at primary
  district, share of quota, or percentage of votes.
• Threshold not only disadvantage small parties
  they benefit large parties

12
Bonuses

• South Korea(old) If largest party does not have
  a majority it gets a bare majority of seats from
  national district.
• Malta Plurality party guaranteed a majority
• Turkey Largest party in Mgt4 districts gets an
  additional seat

13
Dual-ballot (run-offs)

• Majority run-off
• U.S. states Costa Rica 40
• Nicaragua 45
• Double complement rule
• v1 gt (v250)/2 needed for victory
• Some allow entry on second ballot
• Restrictive Run-offs
• Some n candidates advance (top-two)
• Candidates with more than x votes advance
• In Mgt2 systems Mali - winner takes all.

14
Summary

• Electoral systems can vary on several dimension
• How we cast votes
• Who, or what, we cast votes for
• The number of votes we cast
• Who the votes benefit
• How parties nominate candidates

15
Summary II

• Number and size of districts
• District tiers
• Electoral formulas
• DHondt, LR-Hare, Droop, etc
• Alliance structure
• Thresholds
• Bonus

16
Do/Should we care ?

• Electoral rule affect a wide variety of factors
  relevant to political competition and political
  outcomes
• Electoral platforms
• Number of political parties
• Extent of pork barrel politics
• Party cohesion/factionalization
• Preference aggregation

17
Lijpharts findings

• Lijphart considers the question how electoral
  systems influence party systems.
• Two competing hypothesis
• of issue dimensions of parties
• Electoral systems determine party system
• Electoral system -gt Disproportionality -gt of
  parties

18
Competing hypotheses ?

• Are the two hypothesis necessarily contradictory
  ?
• Both factors, of issue dimensions and electoral
  system, may both constrain party systems.
• Some research has taken both factors into
  account.
• The chicken or the egg ? Which came first ?

19
The Two-party System

• Political Science as Science
• Science implies accumulation of knowledge. How
  can knowledge accumulate ?
• Deductive reasoning
• Falsification
• Increased generality and precision

20
Political Science ?

• Can the study of politics be scientific ?
• Difficulties
• Experiments/replication
• Limited data
• Cultural perspective
• On the other hand
• Motivations
• Institutions

21
Duvergers Law Hypothesis

• Duverger distinguishes between three types of
  electoral systems
• Plurality voting
• Run-off voting
• Proportional Representation
• NOTE! Not the only systems we can say something
  about despite Rikers comments.

22
Duvergers Law Hypothesis

• Law the simple-majority rule system favors the
  two-party system
• Hypothesis the simple-majority system with
  second ballot and proportional representation
  favors multi-partyism
• Ambiguous ?

23
Necessary or sufficient conditions

• Necessary X only happens if Y is present
• Sufficient X happens if Y is present (but may
  also if Y is not).
• What does Duverger mean by favors ?
• Favors implies a relationship of some sort.
• A sociological law suggests causality.

24
The History of Duvergers Law

• Not Duvergers discovery.
• Parties are organization for politicians to
  achieve certain goals most importantly to win
  elections.
• Electoral institutions determine what is needed
  to win elections.
• Parties should therefore be expected to be
  influenced by electoral institutions

25
The History of Duvergers Law

• Plurality rule -gt maximize votes
• Run-off -gt maximization is not necessary on
  first ballot.
• 1850s first PR system (Denmark)
• Reform in England proposals for 3 member
  district, two votes.
• John Stuart Mill (1861) Argues that Hares
  method will help minorities get representation

26
The History of Duvergers Law

• Droop (1869,1881) First statement of Duvergers
  Law
• Ashworth Ashworth (1901) Clear statement of
  both law and hypothesis.
• Is well known and increasingly accepted after
  that.
• Lowell (1896) Political experience more
  important.

27
The History of Duvergers Law

• Frequent use in debates
• Herman Finer (1924) PR creates confused
  responsibility -gt cause of multipartyism in
  Germany and Italy.
• Further studies appear to support Duvergers
  hypothesis. (Holcombe, Key Schattsneider,
  Mac-Mahon.

28
Duvergers Contribution

• Duvergers contribution was to distinguish
  between the law and the hypothesis and offer up
  considerable evidence.

29
Duvergers Hypothesis

• Australia and the Alternative Vote
• AV Proportional
• Two parties (one with an appendage)
• Austria
• PR, yet only two parties since the end of WWII ?
• Germany
• Mixed-member system - compensatory
• Two major party, one minor
• Ireland
• STV Proportional
• Number of parties has decreased

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31
The Irish Parliamentary Elections of 1997

• Dáil Eireann 6 june 1997 (65.9 ) (first
  preference votes) 166
• Fianna Fáil/'Soldiers of Destiny' (conservative
  populist) FF 39.3 77
• Fine Gael/'Family of the Irish'
  (christian-democratic) FG 27.9 54
• Labour Party/Páirti Lucht Oibre
  (social-democratic) Lab 10.4 17
• Progressive Democrats/Dan Pairtí Daonlathach
  (liberal) PD 4.7 4
• Comhaontas Glas/Green Alliance (ecologist) CG
  2.8 2
• Democratic Left/Daonlathas Clé (socialist) DL
  2.5 4
• Sinn Fein/'We Ourselves' (irredentist extreme
  left) SF 2.5 1
• Others
• Socialist Party (extreme left, trotskyite)
  9.8 SP 1
• Independent Fianna Fáil IFF 1
• Non-partisans n.p. 5

32
The Austrian Election of 1999

• Nationalrat 3 october 1999 (80.4 ) 183
• Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs SPÖ 33.2
  65
• Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs FPÖ 26.9 52
• Österreichische Volkspartei ÖVP 26.9 52
• Die Grünen Grüne 7.4 14
• Liberales Forum LIF 3.9 -
• Die Unabhängigen DU 1.0 -
• Source Der Standard Online

33
Duvergers Hypothesis

• Rae (1971) PR neither necessary (UK) nor
  sufficient (Austria) condition for a multiparty
  system -gt at best probabilistic relationship.
• Cox (1997) District magnitude imposes upper
  boundaries on number of parties (M1 rule).

34
The two-ballot rule

• Riker Allows minor parties some influence with
  a minor part of the vote
• No disincentives to run
• One can carry the argument further
• What normally happens in run-off elections?
• Parties exit after first round, making deals with
  remaining candidates, and casting their support
  behind them.

35
Duvergers Law

• Two important counterexamples, India Canada.
• Although difficult to ignore UK, New Zealand,
  Bangladesh, Nepal, Zambia making the US the
  only example
• Explanation for Canada
• Parties can maintain regional support.
• Reformulation SMPR results in a two-party system
  unless in the presence of local parties

36
Duvergers Law

• Explanation for India
• The Congress Party dominant until early 1990s
  with a number of minor parties
• The Congress Party occupies median voter - no
  party can compete unless CP messes up badly.
• Several problems with the explanation, empirical
  and logical.

37

• Bharatiya Janata Party (Indian People's Party,
  extreme hinduist) BJP . 182/183
• Indian National Congress (populist) INC . 112
  /114
• Communist Party of India-Marxist (communist)
  CPI-M 32 /33
• Telugu Desam (Telugu Land, Andra Pradesh regional
  progressive) TDP . 29
• Samajwadi Party (Socialist Party, socialist) SP .
  26
• Janata Dal (United) (People's Party-United,
  social-democratic) JD (U) . 20/22
• Shiva Sena (extreme hinduist) SHS . 15
• Bahujan Samaj Party (Majority Society Party,
  Harijans minority) BSP . 14
• Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK . 12
• All-India Anna Diravida Munnetra Kazhagam ADMK .
  10
• Biju Janta Dal (Orissa regionalist) BJD . 10
• All India Trinamool Congress (West-Bengal
  regionalist) AITC . 8/9
• Nationalist Congress Party NCP . 7/8
• Rashtriya Janata Dal (National People's Party)
  RJD . 7
• Pattali Makkal Katchi PMK . 5
• India National Lok Dal INLD . 5
• Jammu Kashmir National Conference (Kashmir
  regionalist) JKN . 4
• Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhhagam (Tamil
  regionalist) MDMK .4
• Communist Party of India (communist) CPI . 4
  /3

38
The revised Law

• Riker Duvergers Law holds with two caveats, i)
  local parties, ii) Condorcet winner. is i)
  sufficient
• A Scientific Law A description of an empirical
  regularity.

39
Duvergers Theory

• Duvergers explanation
• Mechanical effect Disproportionality punishes
  minor parties severely.
• Psychological effect Voters are reluctant to
  vote for third parties.