The Age Dynamics of Voting Behavior

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The Age Dynamics of Voting Behavior

• D. Sunshine Hillygus
• Department of Government
• Harvard University

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Larger Project The Persuadable Voter

• Who is persuadable in electorate? How do
  candidates attempt to sway them?
• The persuadable voters are cross-pressured
• Independents and partisans who disagree with
  party on policy issue
• Strategic candidates will try to exploit the
  tensions that make campaigns matter
• Will use wedge issues to appeal to these
  persuadable voters
• New information technologies contribute to
  greater use of wedge issues
• Campaign strategy shapes issue agenda of
  candidates
• Todays presentation
• Case study partisanship and social security in
  2000

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Partisan Support for Party Nominee
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Partisanship in the Electorate
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Party Identification

• Partisan identification an affective
  orientation towards a political party
• Often compared to religious identity
• Forms early in life and is stable over time
• From panel survey 90 of individuals who
  self-identified as Republican in 1965 voted for
  Reagan in 1980
• Only gradual updating of partisan identification
  based on policy and performance evaluation
• Consequences
• The behavior of self-identified partisans is
  predictable

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Strength of Partisanship by Age
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Some people have suggested allowing individuals
to invest portions of their Social Security taxes
on their own, which might result in more money
for their retirement but would also involve
greater risk. What do you think about this idea?
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How high a priority would you personally want the
next president to give Social Security?
Highest Priority (7 point scale)
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Campaign Learning Social Security
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Cross-Pressures on Social Security
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If a candidate for President took a position
different from yours on Social Security, would
it...
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Predicting Partisan Defection
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Effect of Cross-Pressure on Probability of
Defecting
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Over-times Correlation Social Security
cross-pressure and support for opposition party
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Predicted Probability of Defecting Over time
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Implications for candidate behavior?

• To win over persuadable voters, candidates will
  try to prime cross-pressured issues
• Contrasts with median voter theorem
• Contrasts with base strategy
• But, taking a stand on issue is risky (you win
  some but lose others)
• Two factors today help reduce risk
• Increased information about the preferences of
  voters
• VoterVault (RNC) and Datamart (DNC) matches voter
  registration data to consumer and survey data
• Technologies that allow microtargeting of voters
• In 2004, Bush campaign had 30 target groups
  identified by their anger points (issue
  priorities)

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Direct Mail Microtargeting in 2004
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TV Ads vs. Direct Mail
Note Direct mail estimates calculated from
Campaign Communication Survey Television ad
estimates provided by Joel Rivlin of Wisconsin
Advertising Project using CMAG data
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Candidate strategy base mobilization or
persuasion?
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What gets targeted? By age
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Who gets targeted? By vote history
Note these estimates include all sources of mail
(candidate, party, interest group)
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Party Contact Over Time Age
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Party Contact Over Time Registration
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Conclusions

• Recap
• Candidates must win swing voters to win White
  House
• These swing voters are often cross-pressured
  rather than moderate
• Candidates try to win over these cross-pressured
  voters by priming wedge issues that advantage
  them over their opponent
• The information environment allows for greater
  use of wedge strategy
• Potential implications of microtargeting
• Individuals outside the political process are
  less likely to be brought in
• Candidates take stands on more and more divisive
  issues than in past
• Makes it more difficult to interpret election
  outcomes