Measuring Impacts of HIVAIDS on African Rural Economies

1
Measuring Impacts of HIV/AIDS on African Rural
Economies

• T.S. Jayne
• Michigan State University
• Informal presentation at HSRC, Johannesburg
• July 13, 2004

2
Effective Response to HIV/AIDS Requires Knowledge
of How Households Respond to the Disease

• Three-pronged attack
• Prevention
• Treatment
• Mitigation
• All depend on solid information on how
  individuals and households adapt and respond
• 20 years after the onset of the disease, the
  empirical foundation for the design of programs
  is still weak

3
Objectives

• To understand how affected households
  respond/adapt to prime-age mortality
• To measure impacts on
• Family size and composition
• Crop production
• Non-farm income
• Asset levels
• To consider implications for policy

4
Characteristics of the national samples
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What have we learned so far about measuring
impacts?
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Importance of panel (longitudinal) analysis
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Importance of panel (longitudinal) analysis
Household income
45
40
35
30
25
Afflicted hhs
20
Unafflicted hhs
15
10
5
0
Pre-Mortality
Post-Mortality
9
Finding 2

• Afflicted households/individuals are not random
• Early 1990s positively correlated with income,
  wealth, education, mobility
• More recent evidence increasingly concentrated
  among the poor

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Per Capita Income Status of Afflicted Households
(ex ante) - Kenya
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Per Capita Income Status of Afflicted Households
- Zambia
12
Finding 3 Certain factors affect the magnitude
of impacts on households

• Strong evidence that impacts depend on
• Initial level of household vulnerability (assets,
  wealth)
• Sex of the deceased
• Position in household of deceased
• Ability of household to attract new members
• Characteristics of adults remaining in household
  (e.g, skills, education level)

13
Gender Effects of Mortality on Crop Cultivation

• In Kenya
• Death of male head ? - 0.9 acre to cash crops
  (e.g., sugarcane, horticulture)
• Death of female head ? - 1.8 acre to cereals,
  tubers

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Effects of Death on Farm Production Sensitive to
Gender, Position in HH

• Death of Male hh-head ? 68 reduction in value of
  crop output
• Death of Female head/spouse ? less dramatic but
  still negative effects
• Why Effects of Male Prime Age Mortality are
  Greater?
• Loss of female ag. labor to caregiving
• Loss of higher-return crops
• Death of other hh member insignificant effects
  on ag.

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Finding 4

• In some countries, the majority of prime-age
  mortality is among older sons / daughters, not
  heads / spouses

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Position in household of deceased p.a. individuals
Afflicted M F
Non-afflicted M F
27 73
59 41
34 67
24 76
Kenya head/spouse
other
52 48
54 46
55 45
38 62
Malawi head/spouse
other
13 87
40 60
68 32
60 40
Mozambique head/spouse
other
44 56
56 44
53 47
47 53
Rwanda head/spouse
other
15 85
24 76
58 42
50 50
Zambia head/spouse
other
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Finding 5 Effects More Severe on the Poor

• Very few significant effects detected among
  households in top half of asset distribution
• Effects on ag production and non-farm income were
  larger and more highly significant among the poor

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Implications - I

• Not clear that afflicted households need or
  should be urged to use
• labor-saving crop technologies
• Why?
• Afflicted hhs, on average, have as much labor and
  land/labor ratios as non-affected hhs
• crops / techniques that reduce labor input per
  acre may sacrifice income and food produced per
  acre
• Must take into account population density and
  extent of under-employed labor

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Population Size, 2000 vs. 2025 (projected)Seven
Most Highly Afflicted Countries
20
18
16
14
millions
12
10
2000
8
2025
6
4
2
0
Males lt 20
Males 20-59
Females lt 20
Females 20-59
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Implication - II

• Not clear that afflicted households should be
  urged to grow
• more nutritious foods
• Why?
• Crops that maximize nutrition / kg produced
• ?
• maximize nutrition / acre or income / acre
• -- need to take account of which crops provide
  greatest return to land / labor in a given area

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Nutritional units per acre
Kgs produced per acre
Nutritional units / kg produced
1,000
100
10
Crop X
1,250
250
5
Crop Y
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Summary

• Adult mortalitys greatest effects are
• On the relatively poor
• When male head dies
• When death is other than the hh head/spouse, the
  household is better able to draw back other
  members to help the hh adjust

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What are we learning about community effects

• What determines community resilience?
• Local institutions/traditions influence
  resilience
• Example of sugarcane outgrower programs in Kenya
• Land tenure / land inheritance
• H0 resilience is influenced by
• Initial level of poverty in community
• Rules governing womens rights and access to
  resources
• e.g. can widows retain land after husbands
  death?
• Matrilineal vs. patrilineal effects

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Need for appropriate balance between

• Investing in long-term productivity growth
  (education, infrastructure, markets)
• vs
• Targeted assistance to affected HHs
• Pro-poor development is important to mitigate
  economic effects of HIV/AIDS

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Difference-in-Difference Approach
)x
)y
)y - )x
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Adult Mortality Rates - Women
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Adult Mortality Rates - Men
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