Role of the SOO in an Evolving NWS

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Role of the SOO in an Evolving NWS
Rusty Billingsley Chief of Science and
Technology Services Southern Region
Headquarters, National Weather Service
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Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWS
Disclaimer The opinions and views in this
presentation represent those of the speaker and
not an official position of the National Weather
Service nor anyone else!
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Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWS
First we need to know What are we evolving
into?
Well use 2015 as a target consistent with
ConOps
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Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWSWait a Minute
Context to Consider!
Accelerating Change this isnt your fathers
rate of change!
Premise change is occurring exponentially but
you expect it to be linear based on the current
rate of change! because we're doubling the
rate of progress every decade, we'll see a
century of progress--at today's rate--in only 25
calendar years. Ray Kurzweil Law of
Accelerating Returns
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Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWSSome Proof!

• Suppose its 1995 and you are predicting 2005
• Windows 95 and Internet Explorer 1.0 introduced
• Netscape, Ebay, and Amazon.com come to life
• eCERN holds a two-day seminar for the European
  Media (press, radio, TV), attended by 250
  reporters, to show WWW. It is demonstrated on 60
  machines, with 30 pupils from the local
  International High School helping the reporters
  "surf the Web"
• Traditional online dial-up systems (Compuserve,
  America Online, Prodigy) begin to provide
  Internet access
• 6.5 Million Hosts, 100,000 WWW Sites on internet
• MP3 format comes of age
• USB standard released
• Red Hat Linux formed (actually 94)
• Compaq Computer reaches number one world market
  share
• OS2 Warp ships, PC DOS 7 ships
• Intel introduces 120 MHz Pentium processor
• IBM unveils its new IBM PC 300 desktop systems,
  with 75-MHz and 90-MHz Pentium CPUs. Complete
  systems start at US2000.
• IBM buys Lotus
• IBM releases the ThinkPad 760CD (120 MHz), with
  the industry's first 12.1-inch thin-film
  transistor display
• Sun Microsystems introduces new Ultra 1 and
  Ultra 2 workstations
• Sony Electronics introduces the 32-bit game
  system, PlayStation
• Cell phone subscribers reach 34 million

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Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWSSome Proof!

• For 2005, would you have predicted
• Homeland Security would be a big deal
• You could put your entire song collection on a
  device as big as your thumb
• A desktop could be had for a few hundred bucks
• Microsoft and Dell would be the big players
• Stock market crash after incredible bubble
• Thumb drives
• Satellite radio
• Wireless everywhere
• 70 emails a day
• Reality TV would be a hit
• Half a terabyte disk drives for 300 bucks (500
  gig)
• Laser printers for under a 100 bucks
• DVDs, cell phones, digital cameras everywhere
• The enormity of the Internet
• GIS
• Gridded forecasting (GFE)
• E-commerce

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Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWSAll This Talk
of Change!

• Our environment at the time - 1995 in the
  WSFO/WSO
• AFOS continues as operational system
• AWIPS in trouble 400M spent already
• PCGRIDDs in use
• Some offices get UNIX workstations (SOO Sacs)
• SWIS/MicroSwis
• A few offices experimenting with web sites, web
  is just a curiosity to most
• ASOS commissioning continues

This is just one decade ago!
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Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWSAll This Talk
of Change!
Accelerating Change this isnt your fathers
rate of change!
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Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWSAll This Talk
of Change!
Accelerating Change this isnt your fathers
rate of change!
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Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWSAll This Talk
of Change!
Bottom line Technological rate of change is
acceleratingwe underestimate it
significantlymaking any 2015 prediction
suspect. What we are likely to think will happen
in 2015 should occur technologically by 2008.
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Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWS

• What are we evolving into?
• NOAA/NWS Strategic Plan, PPBES, OSIP
• STIP Science and Technology Infusion Plan
• Concept of Operations Team (ConOps)
• Where are our customers/partners headed?

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Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWS
ConOps - Case for Change

• To provide the best service possible, we must
  adapt.
• 2. We must be more efficient with our resources
  so that we can do more and better.
• 3. We must capitalize on future opportunities.
• 4. We need to posture ourselves for budget
  uncertainties and opportunities because if
  current trends in budget erosion continue, we
  face serious financial and operational
  consequences.

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Key ShiftsMoving Beyond the Status Quo
From
To
Phenomenon Based Forecasts Product Based
Services Coordination Technology Tied National
Weather Service Reactive Evolution Static
Resource Allocation Weather-centric
Impact Based Forecasts Decision Support
Services Collaboration Technology Enabled Full
Partnering Weather Enterprise Proactive
continuous Improvement Dynamic Resource
Allocation Earth System Science
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Clustered Peers VisionAn Extension of the Ops
Philosophy
An effective field structure for NOAAs National
Weather Service consisting of a highly trained
workforce, which...

• - focuses NWS resources on high-impact events
• - while providing routine services
• - in a highly collaborative process,
• - optimizing modern science and technology
• - composed of functionally staffed field offices
• - at current facilities (with modifications).

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Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWS
ConOps My View current implementation team is
building a structure so NWS field offices can
become more efficient in order to do something,
but that something is not well defined

• High Impact and Decision Support Window
  of opportunity!
• Focus on decision-makers
• Lots of talk on collaboration
• Dynamically redistributing workload
• Conclusion this is an evolution, not a
  revolution. Service part of evolution not well
  defined a window of opportunity!

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Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWS

• Customers/Partners where are they headed?
• Weather enterprise is growing, becoming more
  profitable
• Increasingly sophisticated and diverse
• GIS orientation
• Some run own weather models, own obs
• Information dissemination explosion
• Realize value of accurate weather information
• First signs of increasing proprietary systems
• Need services in increasingly diverse forms
• Using more complex decision support systems
• Probabilistic world

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Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWSWhere are our
customers headed?

• Increasing and more diverse requirements very
  evident in Texas DEM support for Hurricane
  Katrina/Rita
• When will be the onset of TS winds by county?
• Impacts of the projected storm surge
• County by county breakdown of winds abating
• Impacts of predicted winds trees and power
  lines down
• What-if questions
• How big (scope) is the storm?

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Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWS
Picture of a storm surge
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Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWS
Katrina projected onto Rita forecast path
Very simple GIS overlay
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Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWSWhat are we
evolving into?

• Bottom line A Service Evolution that is
  already under way in an atmosphere of exponential
  tech change
• Interpreters of an explosion of weather data and
  information
• High impact, decision support, all hazard
  services
• A more integrated piece of the whole weather
  enterprise
• An agency where day to day lines of
  responsibility and authority will become more
  flexible, depending on the situation
• An agency dedicated to those that are responsible
  for life and property and those that disseminate
  that type of information

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Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWSWhat are we
evolving into?

• Time to get uncomfortable
• Machines will need less and less help from you
  to issue day to day weather forecasts
• Systems will need to get much better at mining
  information for you
• Your value will be in making sense (interpreting)
  of the vast complex of weather info and
  communicating the proper message to decision
  makers
• Private industry will adapt to new tech faster
  than the govt
• NWS is not the only game in town any more we
  are becoming proportionally less of the wx
  enterprise with time
• New science and tech becoming more proprietary
• Productivity is the name of the game

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Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWSWhat are we
evolving into?

• Time to get comfortable the NWS advantage
• Saving lives and protecting property will
  continue to be a government responsibility
• Other government entities with life and property
  responsibility will probably move along
  technologically like NWS
• Other government entities will want unbiased
  weather and environmental information they
  trust NWS

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Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWS
So what is the role of the SOO in an evolving NWS?
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Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWS

• Is there a need for a Science and Operations
  Officer?
• Technological rate of change of advancements will
  accelerate,
• Leading to an explosion of available information,
• Which will have to be interpreted by experts (in
  the WFOs),
• For our increasingly sophisticated and diverse
  set of customers.
• Answer should be obvious!

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Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWS

• What is your role?
• Show us the way be a visionary
• Reclaim our role as an agency based on scientific
  integrity
• Make sure we use our human resources in the
  smartest way
• Ensure we measure our true value
• Show us what new job skills we need
• Help us to understand our customers needs
• Train us to be the best
• The need for your skills is increasing!

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Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWS

• What can you do?
• Technology will have a hard time replacing the
  goodwill generated by the direct service provided
  by your WFO
• Continue the tradition of excellent service and
  trust
• Help lead the customers (and NWS) in the right
  direction (i.e., be active in solutions)
• Work even harder to understand the environment
  under which your customers live
• Be open to new ways of doing business
• Find ways to keep up with the technological
  onslaught the results can be remarkable and
  very satisfying

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Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWS
What can you do? Jump through that window of
opportunity!