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Chapter 2' Trade and distribution

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Title: Chapter 2' Trade and distribution


1
Chapter 2. Trade and distribution
Course FB, Winter 09
2
Outline
  • Some basic evidence
  • The debate on the source of increasing inequality
    and mounting unemployment in developed countries
    trade, technical progress, or demographics?
  • Naive applications of the 2x2x2 Hecksher-Ohlin
    model with skilled and unskilled labor
  • A 'sensible' assessment of the causes of
    increasing inequality by applied general
    equilibrium models of the world economy
  • Limits to redistribution and gains from trade
  • Poverty and trade the key relationship between
    trade and growth

3
1. Some basic evidence apparent effect of trade
and globalization variables on within country
inequality
  • Evolution of earnings inequality
  • Evolution of GDP labor share
  • Skilled vs. Unskilled debate
  • Simple regressions relating inequality and trade
    indicators

4
(No Transcript)
5
Source, IMF, WEO, 07
6
Source, IMF, WEO, 07
7
Source IMF, WEO, 2007 18 advanced countries
1982-02
8
Source, IMF, WEO, 07
9
51 countries, 1981-03
Source, IMF, WEO, 07b
10
51 countries, 1981-03
Source, IMF, WEO, 07b
11
Source, IMF, WEO, 07b
12
2. The debate on trade related inequality and
unemployment
  • Absolute and relative fall in bottom real wages
    during the 1980s in the US debate on the
    possible effects of North-South trade on wages
    and employment in the mid 1990s (Freeman, 1995)
  • Debate older than this e.g. employment effect of
    trade with developing countries Martin and Evans
    (1981), Balassa (1986) still very prominent
    today with debate on the effects of "offshoring"
    and "outsourcing"
  • Analytical divide occurred in the early 1990s
    about the effect of North-South trade on labor
    demand and skill differentials in OECD countries.

13
Divergent views on the effects of North-South
trade upon labor demand employment and skill
differential
  • Labor economists' approach
  • Effect of increased LDC trade on skill
    differential is negligible (Berman, Bound and
    Griliches, 1994) versus 20 of actual increase
    (Borjas, Freeman and Katz, 1992).
  • Trade economists' approach
  • Changes in relative prices too limited to
    generate any significant effect of North-South
    trade on the economy (Lawrence and Slaughter,
    1993) versus impact of trade on skill
    differential is substantial (16 of the observed
    increase or more) Leamer (1994), Wood (1994)

14
Towards a synthesis?
  • Synthetic view (Krugman, 1995 Cline, 1997)
  • Increasing North-South trade is one of the
    factors explaining changes in labor demand and
    skill differentials in OECD countries but not the
    most important one (less than 20 per cent of
    observed phenomena)
  • Other factors include technical progress,
    migrations, labor supply shocks, ...
  • Recent contributions would confirm this
    conclusion.
  • Very much affected by the fact that skill
    differentials tended to level off - except at the
    very top of the distribution.
  • Focus increasingly on the effects of technical
    progress

15
2. A simple Hecksher-Ohlin model with skilled and
unskilled labor implications and limitations
  • Basic assumptions two goods, two factors
    (skilled and unskilled labor), two countries,
    perfect domestic mobility of factors, perfect
    international immobility of factors, identical
    homogeneous productions functions, perfect
    competition on domestic markets for goods (see
    standard textbook on international trade, e. g.
    Bhagwati et al.).
  • Notations
  • Production functions sector i 1, 2 country j
    a, b



  • where Q output, L total employment, S
    skilled employment, total labor force,
    skilled labor force, and lower case symbols are
    scaled by the total labor force or employment.

(1)
16
Production equilibria
  • Profit maximization


  • where wu is the wage rate of unskilled workers
    and ws the skill premium
  • Labor market equilibria
  • After resolution

(2)
(3)
(4)
17
Autartik equilibria
  • (Aggregate) demand (representative agent)
  • where is a vector of preference
    parameters
  • General equilibrium
  • After resolution

(5)
(GE)
(6)
18
Free trade equilibrium
  • Domestic prices within countries a and b are the
    international prices
  • New general equilibrium condition writes at the
    world level

(7)
(FT)
19
Some properties of the free trade equilibrium
  • Relative factor intensity
  • From (2) it comes that the skill intensity of the
    production of good i, si, is given by the
    equation
  • Good 1 is said to be relatively more 'skill
    intensive' than good 2 if s1 gt s2 for all values
    of the skill differential, ?.
  • Hescksher-Ohlin theorem. At free trade
    equilibrium each country exports the good
    relatively more intensive in the type of labor
    relatively the most abundant in the country.

20
Some properties of the free trade equilibrium
  • Stolper-Samuelson Theorem
  • Protection (free trade) in a country reduces
    (increases) the return to the relatively most
    abundant factor and increases (reduces) that of
    the relatively scarce factor.
  • Protection reduces the production of good 1 (less
    exports) and increases that of good 2 (less
    imports). The relative demand for skilled labor
    declines and therefore its relative remuneration.

21
Some properties of the free trade equilibrium
  • Rybczynski Theorem (Closed or world free-trade
    economy)
  • "An increase in the quantity of one factor will
    always lead to a worsening in the terms of trade,
    or the relative price of the commodity using
    relatively much of that factor"
  • Here
  • Increase in the quantity of skilled labor reduces
    the relative cost of that factor and the relative
    price of the commodity relatively intensive in
    that factor.

22
Some properties of the free trade equilibrium
  • Factor price equalization theorem (Samuelson)
  • Under HO assumptions, in absence of complete
    specialization of trade partners and in absence
    of factor intensity reversal, factor prices are
    identical in the two economies at the free trade
    equilibrium.
  • Proof. From (2)
  • It follows that and are identical in
    countries a and b and depend only on
    international prices. This implies

23
Controversy about factor price equalization
theorem
  • Often presented as paradoxical and unrealistic
    prediction shedding doubt on the whole HO
    framework.
  • Some generalization is possible to the case of
    more than 2 commodities and 2 factors.
  • Key assumptions clearly are identical production
    functions, absence of commodity-specific factors,
    incomplete specialization, perfectly competitive
    factor markets. But these assumptions are also
    key for the whole HO framework.
  • At the same time, the FPE theorem regained very
    much audience lately, precisely because of the
    simultaneity between the growth of North-South
    trade and the increase in the skill diferential
    in developed countries.

24
Explaining the increase in the skill differential
by pure trade theory
  • Direct application of the Stolper-Samuleson and
    Rybczyinski theorems within the skilled-unskilled
    labor HO framework
  • Less protection in OECD countries (various recent
    trade negotiation rounds) affects positively
    skilled labor, which is the relatively abundant
    factor
  • Incorporation of new countries in international
    trade e. g. China - equivalent to relative
    increase in the world supply of unskilled workers
    with a negative effect on the relative price of
    unskilled labor commodities and on the relative
    reward to unskilled labor worldwide.
  • First steps towards Factor Price Equalization?

25
Objections to and confirmations of the trade
explanation of the increase in skill differentials
  • HO framework changes in the structure of
    activity and labor demand should be the main
    consequence of increased trade.
  • Berman, Bound and Griliches (1994) no big change
    occurred in the US.
  • Borjas, Freeman and Katz (1992) increased trade
    had modified the 'effective' relative demand for
    the various types of labor (leading to an
    increase in the skill differential equal to 15-20
    percent of what was observed).
  • HO framework increased North-South trade should
    reduce the relative price of unskilled labor
    commodities and the skill intensity of the
    production of all commodities
  • No big change in terms of trade in OECD countries
    and skill intensity increased rather than
    decreased (Lawrence and Slaughter, 1993)
  • Leamer (1992) different taxonomy of commodities
    Wood (1994) some goods imported by Northern
    countries are not produced anymore there.
    (Leamer trade-caused increase in the skill
    differential equal to 20 per cent what was
    observed Wood almost 100 per cent!)

26
Objections to and confirmations of the trade
explanation of the increase in skill differentials
  • Why did the skill differential initially increase
    more in the US and UK than in continental Europe?
  • Flexible vs. fixed wages. Unskilled unemployment
    rose in continental Europe instead of unskilled
    wages falling. (Krugman, ??). But increase in
    North-North trade, initial effect of different
    labor market closures on the structure of
    activity, different sensitivity to Southern
    trade. (Atkinson, 2000)
  • Why did the skill differential increase in
    Southern countries, in contradiction with the
    simple HO framework?
  • Definition of skilled and unskilled workers and
    functioning of labor market. Higher unskilled
    wages in formal than informal labor market. Skill
    differential to be measured within the formal
    sector only.
  • How should trade deficit (surplus) be taken into
    account? Non-traded sectors? Factor market
    imperfections? Factor supply responses? ...
  • Is it always possible to disentangle trade and
    globalization from other forces pushing unskilled
    wages (and employment) down? Is technical
    progress or migration independent of foreign
    trade?

27
3. A "sensible" assessment of the effects of
trade on inequality through applied general
equilibrium models
  • Clearly the 2x2x2 HO framework with skilled and
    unskilled workers is inappropriate in view of a
    much more complex reality.
  • Hence the idea of building numerical simulation
    models to evaluate the potential effect of
    increased North-South trade on inequality (i.e.
    Skill differential).
  • Several world-wide applied general equilibrium
    models available with varying degrees of
    complexity. Some of them are actually close to
    simple generalizations of HO framework.
  • What follows is drawn from simulations with the
    model TIDE (Trade and Income Distribution
    Equilibrium Model (Cline, 1997) that generalizes
    Krugman (1995).

28
Specification of the model
  • 13 'countries' (groups of countries) US, Canada,
    EU, Japan, rest of OECD, Mexico, rest of Latin
    America, China, Asian tigers ( HK, Singapore,
    South Korea Taian), India, rest of Asia, Eastern
    Europe and rest of the world.
  • 3 factors unskilled labor, skilled labor,
    capital
  • 5 sectors in each country 3 tradables (skilled
    labor commodity, unskilled labor commodity,
    capital intensive commodity), non-tradable
    intensive in unskilled labor, non-tradable
    intensive in skilled labor
  • In each sector, production functions are CES.
    They differ across countries only by a specific
    scale factor that changes exponentially over
    time.
  • Preferences are Cobb-Douglas in each country
    (perfect aggregation property) with budget shares
    that are country specific
  • Trade is balanced (export of country i in good j
    sum of imports of other countries in good j).
    However, 'effective' import for consumption can
    differ from 'gross' imports because of
    transportation cost and trade barriers (no formal
    modeling of tariffs)

29
Specification of the model
  • Factor supplies are exogenous in all countries
  • 'Calibration' based on 'plausible' budget and
    factor shares and arbitrary values (elasticity of
    substitution of CES production functions .7 or
    1)
  • Transportation costs taken to be proportional to
    distance, tariffs are close to mean tariffs in
    the various groups of countries.
  • Country-specific scale factors in production
    function calibrated so as to generate a trade
    matrix reasonably close to the one actually
    observed.
  • Calibration undertaken for three different years
    1973, 1984 and 1993

30
Results of simulations deviation of factor
prices from baseline for selected experiments and
countries (percent) (Cline, 1997)
31
Concluding comment on the trade explanation of
the increase in the skill differential
  • How much of the observed increase in skill
    differential (and unskilled labor unemployment)
    in OECD countries during the 1980s/1990s was
    caused by the increase in North-South trade?
  • Ambiguous and/or heterogeneous econometric
    evidence on relationship between skill
    differential and trade-related variables
    (structure of economic activity, terms of trade)
    identification often requires a restrictive
    theoretical framework.
  • Simulations based on less restrictive synthetic
    representation of global economy suggests that
    trade liberalization and expansion explains part
    of the increase in skill differential, but
    unexplained residual is very large.

32
Concluding comment on the trade explanation of
the increase in the skill differential
  • In summary
  • Yes, the expansion of trade played a role in
    explaining changes in skill differential
  • But trade is only one of numerous factors that
    affected that evolution
  • Other factors include skill-biased technical
    change, migration and changes in factor supply
    (exogenous or endogenous?), changes in
    functioning of labor-market (de-unionization),
    etc..
  • Among them, skill-biased technical progress seems
    the most important one, although its impact is
    uneasy to measure (Krueger, 1993 Acemoglu, 2002)
  • Possibly sizable residual

33
4. Limits to redistribution and gains from trade
  • The 'gains from trade' efficiency argument
    applies to a representative agent
  • Trade permits consumption of the representative
    agent to be above the production frontier
    (argument generalizes to trade liberalization)

x2
P
C
C
x1
p1/p2
34
  • Argument generalizes to trade liberalization (T
    tariff)

x2
p1(1T1)/p2
p1/p2
P
x1
35
Case of heterogeneous agents and no available
lump-sum redistribution instruments
  • But what if domestic agents are heterogenous in
    terms of factor supply and/or preferences and do
    not benefit all from trade?
  • Example unskilled workers in OECD countries
    when North-South trade is liberalized
  • If lump-sum redistribution is possible then gains
    from trade at the aggregate level implies
    Pareto-superiority of liberalization
  • Things are different if lump-sum redistribution
    is not available
  • Redistribution now entails an efficiency loss
    that reduces and, in some circumstances, may
    possibly offset the aggregate gains from trade
  • The Pareto-superiority of trade liberalization
    may ultimately rely on the nature of the
    redistribtion investments available.

36
Example of efficiency loss due to redistributing
the gains from trade (inspired by Spector, 2001)
  • Standard HO framework with skilled and unskilled
    labor but with endogenous factor supply
  • International prices of the skilled and unskilled
    intensive goods ps, pu. Domestic economy
    relatively rich in skilled labor.
  • Proportions of skilled and unskilled workers ps
    pu 1
  • Labor supply of skilled and unskilled workers
    ls, lu in 0,1
  • Preferences of workers i ( i skilled or
    unskilled)
  • and after maximization with respect to
    consumption
  • where yi is after tax income.

37
Equilibrium without taxes
  • Max W(yi, p, li)/ yi wi.li ? li(wi, p)
  • Factor supply in the domestic economy ps ls(ws,
    p) and pu lu(wu, p)
  • Open economy production equilibrium ? factor
    prices determined by international prices ws
    fs(ps/pu), wu fu(ps/pu)
  • International equilibrium solved by equating
    supply and demand of one good as in standard
    model with an additional source of flexibility
    coming from the endogeneity of labor suply.
  • Let ps/ pu be the world equilibrium price
  • Now, consider some liberalization in the world
    economy that leads to an increase in ps/ pu and
    therefore an increase in ws and a drop in wu.
    There is a positive aggregate gain for this
    economy, since it is relatively rich in skilled
    labor.
  • Distributional issue skilled workers are better
    off, but unskilled workers are worse off. What
    should be the redistribution policy?

38
The challenge of redistribution policy
  • Suppose that lump-sum redistribution cannot be
    enforced for instance because skilled and
    unskilled workers can only be distinguished on
    the basis of their income.
  • Assume the government can apply a non-linear
    income tax to redistribute across the two groups
    of workers.
  • The objective of the government is then to
    redistribute from skilled to unskilled workers so
    as to make everybody better off after the change
    in international prices.
  • The constraint is that the tax schedule must be
    'incentive compatible' skilled workers must not
    find it in their interest to 'disguise' as
    unskilled by reducing their labor supply so as
    to have the same level of income as unskilled
    workers.

39
Some characteristics and properties of the
redistribution policy
  • The government must choose a non-linear income
    tax schedule, that includes a net transfer, t,
    paid by skilled workers and redistributed to
    unskilled workers.
  • Through the shape of the non-linear income tax
    (marginal tax rates, tu, ts), the government can
    actually control the labor supply of the two
    groups see optimal taxation literature
    (Mirrlees, 1973)
  • The constraints of the redistributive taxation
    policy by the governement can thus be written as
    follows.

40
Explanation of constraints and basic issue
  • Welfare of unskilled workers after redistribution
    must be at least equal to initial situation.
  • It must not be in the interest of skilled workers
    to appear as if they were unskilled i.e.
    getting the same pre-tax income as unskilled
    workers
  • Issue not sure that there exist t u and t s in
    0,1 and t gt 0 such that these constraints are
    satisfied!

41
Efficiency loss
  • Preceding framework not complete in the sense
    that there is no optimizing behavior by the
    government.
  • There are three degrees of freedom, lu, ls (or
    corresponding marginal tax rates) and t, and two
    constraints. Fully identifying a redistribution
    policy requires setting some kind of objective by
    the government.
  • Maximizing social welfare would reduce to
    maximizing Ss (since is fixed). But then,
    the issue arises of what was the optimal
    redistribution in the initial situation (value of
    ).
  • Another objective would be to minimize the
    efficiency loss, as measured, for instance, by
    total output, and to measure the extent to which
    the fall in output due to redistribution offsets
    the gain arising from the gains in terms of
    trade.
  • (Not done here because requires closed form
    resolution of the whole model including taxation
    numerical illustration suggested).

42
Optimal redistribution
  • Spector (2001) uses this framework to analyze the
    gains from trade under the assumption of a
    government maximizing social welfare in autarky
    and in free trade equilibria.
  • His conclusion is that, for a small economy, free
    trade may lead to a drop in social welfare if
    equilibrium prices at the free trade equilibrium
    are distant enough, but not too much, from
    autarky prices.
  • Terms of trade effect corresponding to distance
    between autarky and trade equilibrium contribute
    to increasing social welfare
  • Asymmetric wage effects and the efficiency cost
    of correcting for them contribute to reducing
    social welfare.
  • See also Guesnerie (1998, 2002), Feenstra (1987),
    Dixit and Norman (1986),

43
5. Poverty and trade the key relationship
between trade and growth
  • Absolute vs. relative inequality trade may be
    changing the relative income of groups of
    individuals but this may matter little if all
    income actually grow implying that poor become
    less poor
  • Statics vs. Dynamics all what precedes is about
    the static effects of trade. However, trade may
    affect individual incomes dynamically through the
    rate and the structure of growth of the economy
  • Hence the idea of considering in this section the
    relationship between trade, or more exactly trade
    policy, and poverty, which actually is a
    relationship between trade, growth and
    distribution.
  • This section based on Winters, McCulloch and
    McKay (2004)

44
Channels through which trade liberalization (TL)
may affect poverty
  • Growth and productivity Does TL foster growth
    and poverty reduction? Through what channel
    (accumulation vs. productivity)?
  • Households and markets Are border price changes
    passed through onto (poor) households? How are
    they affected? Is the structure of markets
    modified? What is the capacity of response of
    (poor) households?
  • Wage and employment Does TL increase wages and
    employment among poor people? Are transitional
    costs born mainly by the poor?
  • Macro-stability and uncertainty Does TL increase
    macro-economic instability? Does it create more
    vulnerability to poverty or is vulnerability
    affected directly through micro channels?
  • Government revenues and public spending Does TL
    reduce governement revenues and public spending
    in favor of the poor?
  • This section offers a brief synthesis of the
    evidence available on these various questions

45
5.1 The growth channel
  • Link growth-poverty reduction is very strong
    (Ravallion, 2001, Bourguignon, 2002). Growth
    probably the strongest channel linking trade and
    poverty reduction.
  • Trade and growth old debate in economics
  • Theory
  • Growth boosted by TL, due to
  • access to technology and efficient intermediate
    and capital goods
  • economies of scale
  • competition
  • flexibility of a more 'marketed' economy.
  • But negative effects too specializing on raw
    materials and extractive industry, destruction of
    infant industry, ...
  • ? trade and growth empirical issue

46
  • Empirics
  • Simple-minded cross-country regressions suggested
    a strong relationship between trade and growth
    (Sachs and Warner, 1995, Dollar and Kraay, 2001,
    Edwards, 1998, Wacziarg and Welch, 2003)
  • But weak empirical framework (Rodriguez and
    Rodrik, 2001).
  • Problems measuring "trade openness" causation
    doubtful because of endogeneity problems,
    instruments not always convincing TL policy
    packages include other (complementary)
    instruments or TL correlated to other policies.
  • Case studies TL often as preliminary to growth
    acceleration
  • Structural models

47
Trade, growth synthesis
  • Little doubt that trade restrictions are harmful
    to growth ( no evidence of trade restriction
    fostering growth)
  • However, doubts about the nature of policies
    leading to that result
  • Many fast-growing open economies started with
    strong (subsidized) export sector and high
    protection they liberalized imports in a second
    stage
  • Case studies suggest liberalization of imports
    promotes growth only selectively
  • Few examples of unilateral liberalization leading
    to faster growth (Chile?)

48
5.2 Trade and productivity gains
  • Productivity gains necessary for growth (but not
    sufficient, e.g. fall in inputs).
  • Same ambiguity arises from theory as for growth.
  • Empirically
  • cross-country evidence of impact of RD
    accumulated in imports of intermediate and
    capital goods on TFP growth (Coe, Helpman and
    Hoffmaister, 1997)
  • Cross-sectoral studies mixed results, trade not
    necessarily the major force
  • Firm-level analysis Bigsten et al. (2000) find
    exports fosters productivity in Africa whereas
    little evidence found for Asia and Latin-America
    (Tybout and Westbrook, 1995). (Problem of
    selection through firm demographics)
  • Most studies refer to industrial sectors and
    firms little evidence in other sectors
    (agriculture)
  • Ambiguity arising from measurement of TFP
  • Link to poverty may be somewhat unclear (input
    effect TFP gains limited to sectors of less
    concern for poor people)

49
5.3 Households and markets the key relationship
between trade and household welfare
  • What is the direct impact of trade openness at
    the micro-economic household level?
  • Basic mechanism in micro-studies of the impact of
    trade on poverty (and distribution, see Sahn and
    Younger, 2003, Ravallion, 2008, Bourguignon and
    Spadaro, 2006)
  • Important issues include
  • the impact of trade policies on consumer or
    producer prices
  • the structure of the markets where goods i are
    exchanged (markets may not exist, goods may not
    be exchanged and vice-versa)
  • the household response to price changes matters
    too.

50
Transmission of Border-price changes
  • Relationship between border prices and domestic
    prices depends on transport costs and other costs
    of distribution, competition between traders
    (marketing boards), infrastructure, domestic
    taxes and regulation.
  • Example
  • Passthrough is high in the absence of transaction
    costs or exchange rate reaction, and with
    competitive traders
  • Passthrough may be very low in the opposite
    cases example of prices in China as a function
    of the distance from import and export centres.
  • Most available evidence for agricultural products
    point to a diversity of situations

51
Creating and destroying markets
  • Some goods may be non-traded because of the
    absence of a market, or high transaction costs.
    In agricultural households, it is then observed
    that qi ci .
  • If a market is created, possibly following trade
    liberalization, impact on household welfare may
    be big. Relationship between border prices and
    domestic prices depends on transport costs and
    other costs of distribution, competition between
    traders (marketing boards), infrastructure,
    domestic taxes and regulation.
  • Example
  • Privatization of marketing board for exports
    makes inputs unaivalable to small farmers who go
    back to subsistance
  • Construction of infrastructure reduces
    transaction costs and opens new markets
  • The 'household responsibility system' in China as
    market creation
  • Exports of rice and coffee as market creation or
    market expansion in Vietnam

52
Household response
  • In previous cases, difficult to stick to the
    marginalist framework described by ?pi. Big
    changes are to be expected in production and/or
    consumption, depending on the capacity of
    households to respond to changes in incentives,
    and in particular market structures.
  • Note also that secondary effects are to be
    expected from household response that can offset
    or invert initial impact of trade liberalization.
  • Examples
  • Households with little assets or wealth less
    likely to react to market creation or price
    changes. Liberalization must come with other
    policies so as to benefit the poor.
  • NAFTA reduced the price of corn in Mexico, yet
    farmers increased planted areas for lack of good
    substitute or because price of substitutes fell
    too. ( constant price of 'tortilla')
  • Problem of incoporating empirical demand
    functions in the analysis

53
5.4 Other channels of the impact of trade on
poverty
  • Wage and employment (See section 2 above,
    however take into account labor market
    imperfections). Issue of the transitional periods
    and vulnerability of the poor .
  • Macro instability and poverty vulnerability It
    turns out that ToT variability is a minor source
    of macro instability if accompanied by the
    appropriate macro policy (partial adjustment
    strategy). Policy more than ToT shocks seem
    responsible for instability Loayza and
    Hnatkovska (2006).
  • Poverty vulnerability is reinforced by trade
    liberalization with high pass-through in
    comparison with subsistance farming (portfolio
    choice). At the same time expected income is
    higher, provided there is no poverty trap. But
    limited evidence of such traps. Extreme
    importance of credit market (and micro-credit).
    (Morduch, 20 )
  • Government revenue and spending. Trade does not
    seem to be the main source of variability but
    rather macro policies.

54
Conclusion on trade and poverty
  • Growth/productivity as the main and less
    ambiguous channel through which trade and trade
    policies may affect poverty
  • Other channels show that complementary policies
    necessary to reinforce the direct impact of trade
    policies on poverty (micro-credit to minimize
    vulnerability, macro-policies to avoid
    instability, regulation to avoid marketing firms
    to capture gains, infrastructure investment to
    facilitate integration in trade flows,
  • Not clear, however, that, as such, trade policies
    are superior to other more direct policies in
    alleviating poverty

55
General conclusions on globalization through
trade and equity
  • Globalization through trade and equity
  • International inequality fell because of trade
    globalization (through the growth channel)
  • But not clear that inter-country inequality fell
    too, at least until the early 2000s) some
    countries were not able to integrate into world
    trade flows.
  • Inequality within country has probably been
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    difficult to measure and many other factors may
    explain the change in inequality
  • Some effects of globalization are voluntary
    (trade policies) others are involuntary (changes
    in world economy). This makes other policies all
    the more important to tackle the consequences of
    globalization
  • More generally, importance of policies that
    'accompany' trade or directly address
    distributional issues.

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