Title: Chapter 2' Trade and distribution
1Chapter 2. Trade and distribution
Course FB, Winter 09
2Outline
- Some basic evidence
- The debate on the source of increasing inequality
and mounting unemployment in developed countries
trade, technical progress, or demographics? - Naive applications of the 2x2x2 Hecksher-Ohlin
model with skilled and unskilled labor - A 'sensible' assessment of the causes of
increasing inequality by applied general
equilibrium models of the world economy - Limits to redistribution and gains from trade
- Poverty and trade the key relationship between
trade and growth
31. Some basic evidence apparent effect of trade
and globalization variables on within country
inequality
- Evolution of earnings inequality
- Evolution of GDP labor share
- Skilled vs. Unskilled debate
- Simple regressions relating inequality and trade
indicators
4(No Transcript)
5Source, IMF, WEO, 07
6Source, IMF, WEO, 07
7Source IMF, WEO, 2007 18 advanced countries
1982-02
8Source, IMF, WEO, 07
951 countries, 1981-03
Source, IMF, WEO, 07b
1051 countries, 1981-03
Source, IMF, WEO, 07b
11Source, IMF, WEO, 07b
122. The debate on trade related inequality and
unemployment
- Absolute and relative fall in bottom real wages
during the 1980s in the US debate on the
possible effects of North-South trade on wages
and employment in the mid 1990s (Freeman, 1995) - Debate older than this e.g. employment effect of
trade with developing countries Martin and Evans
(1981), Balassa (1986) still very prominent
today with debate on the effects of "offshoring"
and "outsourcing" - Analytical divide occurred in the early 1990s
about the effect of North-South trade on labor
demand and skill differentials in OECD countries.
13Divergent views on the effects of North-South
trade upon labor demand employment and skill
differential
- Labor economists' approach
- Effect of increased LDC trade on skill
differential is negligible (Berman, Bound and
Griliches, 1994) versus 20 of actual increase
(Borjas, Freeman and Katz, 1992). - Trade economists' approach
- Changes in relative prices too limited to
generate any significant effect of North-South
trade on the economy (Lawrence and Slaughter,
1993) versus impact of trade on skill
differential is substantial (16 of the observed
increase or more) Leamer (1994), Wood (1994)
14Towards a synthesis?
- Synthetic view (Krugman, 1995 Cline, 1997)
- Increasing North-South trade is one of the
factors explaining changes in labor demand and
skill differentials in OECD countries but not the
most important one (less than 20 per cent of
observed phenomena) - Other factors include technical progress,
migrations, labor supply shocks, ... - Recent contributions would confirm this
conclusion. - Very much affected by the fact that skill
differentials tended to level off - except at the
very top of the distribution. - Focus increasingly on the effects of technical
progress
152. A simple Hecksher-Ohlin model with skilled and
unskilled labor implications and limitations
- Basic assumptions two goods, two factors
(skilled and unskilled labor), two countries,
perfect domestic mobility of factors, perfect
international immobility of factors, identical
homogeneous productions functions, perfect
competition on domestic markets for goods (see
standard textbook on international trade, e. g.
Bhagwati et al.). - Notations
- Production functions sector i 1, 2 country j
a, b -
- where Q output, L total employment, S
skilled employment, total labor force,
skilled labor force, and lower case symbols are
scaled by the total labor force or employment.
(1)
16Production equilibria
- Profit maximization
-
- where wu is the wage rate of unskilled workers
and ws the skill premium - Labor market equilibria
- After resolution
(2)
(3)
(4)
17Autartik equilibria
- (Aggregate) demand (representative agent)
- where is a vector of preference
parameters - General equilibrium
- After resolution
(5)
(GE)
(6)
18Free trade equilibrium
- Domestic prices within countries a and b are the
international prices - New general equilibrium condition writes at the
world level
(7)
(FT)
19Some properties of the free trade equilibrium
- Relative factor intensity
- From (2) it comes that the skill intensity of the
production of good i, si, is given by the
equation - Good 1 is said to be relatively more 'skill
intensive' than good 2 if s1 gt s2 for all values
of the skill differential, ?. - Hescksher-Ohlin theorem. At free trade
equilibrium each country exports the good
relatively more intensive in the type of labor
relatively the most abundant in the country.
20Some properties of the free trade equilibrium
- Stolper-Samuelson Theorem
- Protection (free trade) in a country reduces
(increases) the return to the relatively most
abundant factor and increases (reduces) that of
the relatively scarce factor. - Protection reduces the production of good 1 (less
exports) and increases that of good 2 (less
imports). The relative demand for skilled labor
declines and therefore its relative remuneration.
21Some properties of the free trade equilibrium
- Rybczynski Theorem (Closed or world free-trade
economy) - "An increase in the quantity of one factor will
always lead to a worsening in the terms of trade,
or the relative price of the commodity using
relatively much of that factor" - Here
- Increase in the quantity of skilled labor reduces
the relative cost of that factor and the relative
price of the commodity relatively intensive in
that factor.
22Some properties of the free trade equilibrium
- Factor price equalization theorem (Samuelson)
- Under HO assumptions, in absence of complete
specialization of trade partners and in absence
of factor intensity reversal, factor prices are
identical in the two economies at the free trade
equilibrium. - Proof. From (2)
- It follows that and are identical in
countries a and b and depend only on
international prices. This implies
23Controversy about factor price equalization
theorem
- Often presented as paradoxical and unrealistic
prediction shedding doubt on the whole HO
framework. - Some generalization is possible to the case of
more than 2 commodities and 2 factors. - Key assumptions clearly are identical production
functions, absence of commodity-specific factors,
incomplete specialization, perfectly competitive
factor markets. But these assumptions are also
key for the whole HO framework. - At the same time, the FPE theorem regained very
much audience lately, precisely because of the
simultaneity between the growth of North-South
trade and the increase in the skill diferential
in developed countries.
24Explaining the increase in the skill differential
by pure trade theory
- Direct application of the Stolper-Samuleson and
Rybczyinski theorems within the skilled-unskilled
labor HO framework - Less protection in OECD countries (various recent
trade negotiation rounds) affects positively
skilled labor, which is the relatively abundant
factor - Incorporation of new countries in international
trade e. g. China - equivalent to relative
increase in the world supply of unskilled workers
with a negative effect on the relative price of
unskilled labor commodities and on the relative
reward to unskilled labor worldwide. - First steps towards Factor Price Equalization?
25Objections to and confirmations of the trade
explanation of the increase in skill differentials
- HO framework changes in the structure of
activity and labor demand should be the main
consequence of increased trade. - Berman, Bound and Griliches (1994) no big change
occurred in the US. - Borjas, Freeman and Katz (1992) increased trade
had modified the 'effective' relative demand for
the various types of labor (leading to an
increase in the skill differential equal to 15-20
percent of what was observed). - HO framework increased North-South trade should
reduce the relative price of unskilled labor
commodities and the skill intensity of the
production of all commodities - No big change in terms of trade in OECD countries
and skill intensity increased rather than
decreased (Lawrence and Slaughter, 1993) - Leamer (1992) different taxonomy of commodities
Wood (1994) some goods imported by Northern
countries are not produced anymore there.
(Leamer trade-caused increase in the skill
differential equal to 20 per cent what was
observed Wood almost 100 per cent!)
26Objections to and confirmations of the trade
explanation of the increase in skill differentials
- Why did the skill differential initially increase
more in the US and UK than in continental Europe? - Flexible vs. fixed wages. Unskilled unemployment
rose in continental Europe instead of unskilled
wages falling. (Krugman, ??). But increase in
North-North trade, initial effect of different
labor market closures on the structure of
activity, different sensitivity to Southern
trade. (Atkinson, 2000) - Why did the skill differential increase in
Southern countries, in contradiction with the
simple HO framework? - Definition of skilled and unskilled workers and
functioning of labor market. Higher unskilled
wages in formal than informal labor market. Skill
differential to be measured within the formal
sector only. - How should trade deficit (surplus) be taken into
account? Non-traded sectors? Factor market
imperfections? Factor supply responses? ... - Is it always possible to disentangle trade and
globalization from other forces pushing unskilled
wages (and employment) down? Is technical
progress or migration independent of foreign
trade?
273. A "sensible" assessment of the effects of
trade on inequality through applied general
equilibrium models
- Clearly the 2x2x2 HO framework with skilled and
unskilled workers is inappropriate in view of a
much more complex reality. - Hence the idea of building numerical simulation
models to evaluate the potential effect of
increased North-South trade on inequality (i.e.
Skill differential). - Several world-wide applied general equilibrium
models available with varying degrees of
complexity. Some of them are actually close to
simple generalizations of HO framework. - What follows is drawn from simulations with the
model TIDE (Trade and Income Distribution
Equilibrium Model (Cline, 1997) that generalizes
Krugman (1995).
28Specification of the model
- 13 'countries' (groups of countries) US, Canada,
EU, Japan, rest of OECD, Mexico, rest of Latin
America, China, Asian tigers ( HK, Singapore,
South Korea Taian), India, rest of Asia, Eastern
Europe and rest of the world. - 3 factors unskilled labor, skilled labor,
capital - 5 sectors in each country 3 tradables (skilled
labor commodity, unskilled labor commodity,
capital intensive commodity), non-tradable
intensive in unskilled labor, non-tradable
intensive in skilled labor - In each sector, production functions are CES.
They differ across countries only by a specific
scale factor that changes exponentially over
time. - Preferences are Cobb-Douglas in each country
(perfect aggregation property) with budget shares
that are country specific - Trade is balanced (export of country i in good j
sum of imports of other countries in good j).
However, 'effective' import for consumption can
differ from 'gross' imports because of
transportation cost and trade barriers (no formal
modeling of tariffs)
29Specification of the model
- Factor supplies are exogenous in all countries
- 'Calibration' based on 'plausible' budget and
factor shares and arbitrary values (elasticity of
substitution of CES production functions .7 or
1) - Transportation costs taken to be proportional to
distance, tariffs are close to mean tariffs in
the various groups of countries. - Country-specific scale factors in production
function calibrated so as to generate a trade
matrix reasonably close to the one actually
observed. - Calibration undertaken for three different years
1973, 1984 and 1993
30 Results of simulations deviation of factor
prices from baseline for selected experiments and
countries (percent) (Cline, 1997)
31Concluding comment on the trade explanation of
the increase in the skill differential
- How much of the observed increase in skill
differential (and unskilled labor unemployment)
in OECD countries during the 1980s/1990s was
caused by the increase in North-South trade? - Ambiguous and/or heterogeneous econometric
evidence on relationship between skill
differential and trade-related variables
(structure of economic activity, terms of trade)
identification often requires a restrictive
theoretical framework. - Simulations based on less restrictive synthetic
representation of global economy suggests that
trade liberalization and expansion explains part
of the increase in skill differential, but
unexplained residual is very large.
32Concluding comment on the trade explanation of
the increase in the skill differential
- In summary
- Yes, the expansion of trade played a role in
explaining changes in skill differential - But trade is only one of numerous factors that
affected that evolution - Other factors include skill-biased technical
change, migration and changes in factor supply
(exogenous or endogenous?), changes in
functioning of labor-market (de-unionization),
etc.. - Among them, skill-biased technical progress seems
the most important one, although its impact is
uneasy to measure (Krueger, 1993 Acemoglu, 2002) - Possibly sizable residual
334. Limits to redistribution and gains from trade
- The 'gains from trade' efficiency argument
applies to a representative agent - Trade permits consumption of the representative
agent to be above the production frontier
(argument generalizes to trade liberalization)
x2
P
C
C
x1
p1/p2
34- Argument generalizes to trade liberalization (T
tariff)
x2
p1(1T1)/p2
p1/p2
P
x1
35Case of heterogeneous agents and no available
lump-sum redistribution instruments
- But what if domestic agents are heterogenous in
terms of factor supply and/or preferences and do
not benefit all from trade? - Example unskilled workers in OECD countries
when North-South trade is liberalized - If lump-sum redistribution is possible then gains
from trade at the aggregate level implies
Pareto-superiority of liberalization - Things are different if lump-sum redistribution
is not available - Redistribution now entails an efficiency loss
that reduces and, in some circumstances, may
possibly offset the aggregate gains from trade - The Pareto-superiority of trade liberalization
may ultimately rely on the nature of the
redistribtion investments available.
36Example of efficiency loss due to redistributing
the gains from trade (inspired by Spector, 2001)
- Standard HO framework with skilled and unskilled
labor but with endogenous factor supply - International prices of the skilled and unskilled
intensive goods ps, pu. Domestic economy
relatively rich in skilled labor. - Proportions of skilled and unskilled workers ps
pu 1 - Labor supply of skilled and unskilled workers
ls, lu in 0,1 - Preferences of workers i ( i skilled or
unskilled) -
- and after maximization with respect to
consumption - where yi is after tax income.
37Equilibrium without taxes
- Max W(yi, p, li)/ yi wi.li ? li(wi, p)
- Factor supply in the domestic economy ps ls(ws,
p) and pu lu(wu, p) - Open economy production equilibrium ? factor
prices determined by international prices ws
fs(ps/pu), wu fu(ps/pu) - International equilibrium solved by equating
supply and demand of one good as in standard
model with an additional source of flexibility
coming from the endogeneity of labor suply. - Let ps/ pu be the world equilibrium price
- Now, consider some liberalization in the world
economy that leads to an increase in ps/ pu and
therefore an increase in ws and a drop in wu.
There is a positive aggregate gain for this
economy, since it is relatively rich in skilled
labor. - Distributional issue skilled workers are better
off, but unskilled workers are worse off. What
should be the redistribution policy?
38The challenge of redistribution policy
- Suppose that lump-sum redistribution cannot be
enforced for instance because skilled and
unskilled workers can only be distinguished on
the basis of their income. - Assume the government can apply a non-linear
income tax to redistribute across the two groups
of workers. - The objective of the government is then to
redistribute from skilled to unskilled workers so
as to make everybody better off after the change
in international prices. - The constraint is that the tax schedule must be
'incentive compatible' skilled workers must not
find it in their interest to 'disguise' as
unskilled by reducing their labor supply so as
to have the same level of income as unskilled
workers.
39Some characteristics and properties of the
redistribution policy
- The government must choose a non-linear income
tax schedule, that includes a net transfer, t,
paid by skilled workers and redistributed to
unskilled workers. - Through the shape of the non-linear income tax
(marginal tax rates, tu, ts), the government can
actually control the labor supply of the two
groups see optimal taxation literature
(Mirrlees, 1973) - The constraints of the redistributive taxation
policy by the governement can thus be written as
follows.
40Explanation of constraints and basic issue
-
- Welfare of unskilled workers after redistribution
must be at least equal to initial situation. - It must not be in the interest of skilled workers
to appear as if they were unskilled i.e.
getting the same pre-tax income as unskilled
workers - Issue not sure that there exist t u and t s in
0,1 and t gt 0 such that these constraints are
satisfied!
41Efficiency loss
- Preceding framework not complete in the sense
that there is no optimizing behavior by the
government. - There are three degrees of freedom, lu, ls (or
corresponding marginal tax rates) and t, and two
constraints. Fully identifying a redistribution
policy requires setting some kind of objective by
the government. - Maximizing social welfare would reduce to
maximizing Ss (since is fixed). But then,
the issue arises of what was the optimal
redistribution in the initial situation (value of
). - Another objective would be to minimize the
efficiency loss, as measured, for instance, by
total output, and to measure the extent to which
the fall in output due to redistribution offsets
the gain arising from the gains in terms of
trade. - (Not done here because requires closed form
resolution of the whole model including taxation
numerical illustration suggested). -
42Optimal redistribution
- Spector (2001) uses this framework to analyze the
gains from trade under the assumption of a
government maximizing social welfare in autarky
and in free trade equilibria. - His conclusion is that, for a small economy, free
trade may lead to a drop in social welfare if
equilibrium prices at the free trade equilibrium
are distant enough, but not too much, from
autarky prices. - Terms of trade effect corresponding to distance
between autarky and trade equilibrium contribute
to increasing social welfare - Asymmetric wage effects and the efficiency cost
of correcting for them contribute to reducing
social welfare. - See also Guesnerie (1998, 2002), Feenstra (1987),
Dixit and Norman (1986),
435. Poverty and trade the key relationship
between trade and growth
- Absolute vs. relative inequality trade may be
changing the relative income of groups of
individuals but this may matter little if all
income actually grow implying that poor become
less poor - Statics vs. Dynamics all what precedes is about
the static effects of trade. However, trade may
affect individual incomes dynamically through the
rate and the structure of growth of the economy - Hence the idea of considering in this section the
relationship between trade, or more exactly trade
policy, and poverty, which actually is a
relationship between trade, growth and
distribution. - This section based on Winters, McCulloch and
McKay (2004)
44Channels through which trade liberalization (TL)
may affect poverty
- Growth and productivity Does TL foster growth
and poverty reduction? Through what channel
(accumulation vs. productivity)? - Households and markets Are border price changes
passed through onto (poor) households? How are
they affected? Is the structure of markets
modified? What is the capacity of response of
(poor) households? - Wage and employment Does TL increase wages and
employment among poor people? Are transitional
costs born mainly by the poor? - Macro-stability and uncertainty Does TL increase
macro-economic instability? Does it create more
vulnerability to poverty or is vulnerability
affected directly through micro channels? - Government revenues and public spending Does TL
reduce governement revenues and public spending
in favor of the poor? - This section offers a brief synthesis of the
evidence available on these various questions
455.1 The growth channel
- Link growth-poverty reduction is very strong
(Ravallion, 2001, Bourguignon, 2002). Growth
probably the strongest channel linking trade and
poverty reduction. - Trade and growth old debate in economics
- Theory
- Growth boosted by TL, due to
- access to technology and efficient intermediate
and capital goods - economies of scale
- competition
- flexibility of a more 'marketed' economy.
- But negative effects too specializing on raw
materials and extractive industry, destruction of
infant industry, ... - ? trade and growth empirical issue
46- Empirics
- Simple-minded cross-country regressions suggested
a strong relationship between trade and growth
(Sachs and Warner, 1995, Dollar and Kraay, 2001,
Edwards, 1998, Wacziarg and Welch, 2003) - But weak empirical framework (Rodriguez and
Rodrik, 2001). - Problems measuring "trade openness" causation
doubtful because of endogeneity problems,
instruments not always convincing TL policy
packages include other (complementary)
instruments or TL correlated to other policies. - Case studies TL often as preliminary to growth
acceleration - Structural models
47Trade, growth synthesis
- Little doubt that trade restrictions are harmful
to growth ( no evidence of trade restriction
fostering growth) - However, doubts about the nature of policies
leading to that result - Many fast-growing open economies started with
strong (subsidized) export sector and high
protection they liberalized imports in a second
stage - Case studies suggest liberalization of imports
promotes growth only selectively - Few examples of unilateral liberalization leading
to faster growth (Chile?)
485.2 Trade and productivity gains
- Productivity gains necessary for growth (but not
sufficient, e.g. fall in inputs). - Same ambiguity arises from theory as for growth.
- Empirically
- cross-country evidence of impact of RD
accumulated in imports of intermediate and
capital goods on TFP growth (Coe, Helpman and
Hoffmaister, 1997) - Cross-sectoral studies mixed results, trade not
necessarily the major force - Firm-level analysis Bigsten et al. (2000) find
exports fosters productivity in Africa whereas
little evidence found for Asia and Latin-America
(Tybout and Westbrook, 1995). (Problem of
selection through firm demographics) - Most studies refer to industrial sectors and
firms little evidence in other sectors
(agriculture) - Ambiguity arising from measurement of TFP
- Link to poverty may be somewhat unclear (input
effect TFP gains limited to sectors of less
concern for poor people)
495.3 Households and markets the key relationship
between trade and household welfare
- What is the direct impact of trade openness at
the micro-economic household level? - Basic mechanism in micro-studies of the impact of
trade on poverty (and distribution, see Sahn and
Younger, 2003, Ravallion, 2008, Bourguignon and
Spadaro, 2006) - Important issues include
- the impact of trade policies on consumer or
producer prices - the structure of the markets where goods i are
exchanged (markets may not exist, goods may not
be exchanged and vice-versa) - the household response to price changes matters
too.
50Transmission of Border-price changes
- Relationship between border prices and domestic
prices depends on transport costs and other costs
of distribution, competition between traders
(marketing boards), infrastructure, domestic
taxes and regulation. - Example
- Passthrough is high in the absence of transaction
costs or exchange rate reaction, and with
competitive traders - Passthrough may be very low in the opposite
cases example of prices in China as a function
of the distance from import and export centres. - Most available evidence for agricultural products
point to a diversity of situations
51Creating and destroying markets
- Some goods may be non-traded because of the
absence of a market, or high transaction costs.
In agricultural households, it is then observed
that qi ci . - If a market is created, possibly following trade
liberalization, impact on household welfare may
be big. Relationship between border prices and
domestic prices depends on transport costs and
other costs of distribution, competition between
traders (marketing boards), infrastructure,
domestic taxes and regulation. - Example
- Privatization of marketing board for exports
makes inputs unaivalable to small farmers who go
back to subsistance - Construction of infrastructure reduces
transaction costs and opens new markets - The 'household responsibility system' in China as
market creation - Exports of rice and coffee as market creation or
market expansion in Vietnam
52Household response
- In previous cases, difficult to stick to the
marginalist framework described by ?pi. Big
changes are to be expected in production and/or
consumption, depending on the capacity of
households to respond to changes in incentives,
and in particular market structures. - Note also that secondary effects are to be
expected from household response that can offset
or invert initial impact of trade liberalization. - Examples
- Households with little assets or wealth less
likely to react to market creation or price
changes. Liberalization must come with other
policies so as to benefit the poor. - NAFTA reduced the price of corn in Mexico, yet
farmers increased planted areas for lack of good
substitute or because price of substitutes fell
too. ( constant price of 'tortilla') - Problem of incoporating empirical demand
functions in the analysis
535.4 Other channels of the impact of trade on
poverty
- Wage and employment (See section 2 above,
however take into account labor market
imperfections). Issue of the transitional periods
and vulnerability of the poor . - Macro instability and poverty vulnerability It
turns out that ToT variability is a minor source
of macro instability if accompanied by the
appropriate macro policy (partial adjustment
strategy). Policy more than ToT shocks seem
responsible for instability Loayza and
Hnatkovska (2006). - Poverty vulnerability is reinforced by trade
liberalization with high pass-through in
comparison with subsistance farming (portfolio
choice). At the same time expected income is
higher, provided there is no poverty trap. But
limited evidence of such traps. Extreme
importance of credit market (and micro-credit).
(Morduch, 20 ) -
- Government revenue and spending. Trade does not
seem to be the main source of variability but
rather macro policies.
54Conclusion on trade and poverty
- Growth/productivity as the main and less
ambiguous channel through which trade and trade
policies may affect poverty - Other channels show that complementary policies
necessary to reinforce the direct impact of trade
policies on poverty (micro-credit to minimize
vulnerability, macro-policies to avoid
instability, regulation to avoid marketing firms
to capture gains, infrastructure investment to
facilitate integration in trade flows, - Not clear, however, that, as such, trade policies
are superior to other more direct policies in
alleviating poverty
55General conclusions on globalization through
trade and equity
- Globalization through trade and equity
- International inequality fell because of trade
globalization (through the growth channel) - But not clear that inter-country inequality fell
too, at least until the early 2000s) some
countries were not able to integrate into world
trade flows. - Inequality within country has probably been
affected by increased trade, but this effect is
difficult to measure and many other factors may
explain the change in inequality - Some effects of globalization are voluntary
(trade policies) others are involuntary (changes
in world economy). This makes other policies all
the more important to tackle the consequences of
globalization - More generally, importance of policies that
'accompany' trade or directly address
distributional issues.
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