Jersey City Newark

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Jersey City / Newark Urban Area Security
Initiative Regional Evacuation Planning Study
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Purpose of Study

• Develop a collaborative, cross-jurisdictional and
  multi-agency, all-hazards regional evacuation
  plan for the northern New Jersey UASI region.

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Research Team

• Voorhees Transportation Center
• Transportation planning and policy
• Outreach and public involvement
• GIS and travel demand modeling
• National Transit Institute
• Emergency management and transportation security
• Bloustein Center for Survey Research
• Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
• Travel demand and evacuation modeling
• Subject matter experts
• Mariana Leckner (Emergency Management consultant)
• Richard Kelly (Original author of the
  Trans-Hudson Emergency transportation plan)
• Marketing (TBD)
• Traffic operations (TBD)

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Goal and Objectives

• Goal Enhance the regions evacuation planning
  capabilities
• No silver bullet or absolute answers
• Objectives
• Inventory assets and resources
• Develop foundational understanding of how the
  regions transportation network may function
  under different scenarios and assumptions
• Identify critical vulnerabilities and impediments
  to successful evacuation, shelter-in-place and
  reentry/recovery efforts
• Explore opportunities for coordination and
  collaboration
• Identify needs related to collaborative
  arrangements/mutual aid
• Identify training and education needs
• Strengthen existing framework for on-going
  regional cooperation and collaboration

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Planning process will address

• Command, control and management issues
• Evacuation routing and clearance time estimates
• Evacuation of special needs populations
• Coordination with mass care/sheltering and animal
  evacuation/sheltering plans
• Cooperative and mutual-aid arrangements
• Ingress/re-entry plans for the safe return of
  displaced populations

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Scope of Work

• Conduct literature review
• Review modeling state-of-the-practice
• Identify planning scenarios assumptions (up to
  10 scenarios)
• Review county and local plans and annexes
• Inventory evacuation-related assets and resources
• Develop regional evacuation planning
  transportation model

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Scope of Work (p.2)

• Design and implement agency coordination and
  public participation plan
• Interviews and listening sessions
• UASI evacuation steering committee
• Agency/stakeholder working group
• Topical committees/working groups (as needed)
• Region-wide resident survey
• Disaster preparedness
• Evacuation behavior
• Information dissemination strategy
• Public information/education plan conduct
  public forums

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Scope of Work (p.3)

• Prepare plan and functional annexes
• Command, control and management
• Public notification and communication
• Evacuation routing plans and corridor/mode-specifi
  c sub-plans
• Plans/protocols for evacuating transportation-disa
  dvantaged and special needs populations
• Trans-Hudson evacuation
• Cooperative arrangements and mutual aid
  agreements
• Coordination with other target capability
  planning initiatives
• Recovery/re-entry plans and protocols
• Training and exercise plan
• Procedures for updating the plan and model

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Schedule
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Challenges

• Scale and scope of the region
• Adapting traditional planning methods to a
  disaster planning process
• Worst-case planning unfamiliar
• Many hypothetical assumptions and unknowns
• Emergency managers not accustomed to open,
  transparent planning process
• Modeling the behavior of a population not
  accustomed to evacuation
• Using conventional transportation planning tools
  to address an unconventional problem
• Bridging the gap between cooperation and
  coordination
• Cooperation is informal and built on personal
  relationships
• Coordination is more formalized and built on
  institutional arrangements

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Scale and scope of the region
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Adapting traditional planning methods to
disaster planning context

• Worst-case is planning unfamiliar to most
• Involves many hypothetical assumptions and
  unknowns
• Emergency managers not accustomed to open,
  transparent planning process

Source www.foxnews.com/.../083105_Katrina2.jpg
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Modeling evacuation behavior is complex
Prepared by Jill Grodkiewicz and Jon Carnegie
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Using conventional transportation planning tools
to address an unconventional problem

• Regional model provides snapshot of how regional
  transportation systems may work
• Macro-scale
• Course grained network
• Static OD
• Micro-scale simulation models provide greater
  local definition and dynamic travel assignments
• No-notice events are a particular challenge
• Shadow evacuation is also challenging to model

North Jersey Regional Transportation Model
(NJRTM)
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Bridging the gap b/w cooperation and coordination
Cooperation
Coordination
Informal and built on personal relationships
Formalized and built on institutional
arrangements
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Discussion

• Thank you!
• Contact information
• Jon A. Carnegie, AICP/PP, Executive Director
• Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center
• Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
• Tel 2-6812 ext. 606
• Email carnegie_at_rci.rutgers.edu