Risk perception: Theories and models

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Risk perceptionTheories and models
Anna-Mari Aalto, Pilvikki Absetz, Yael
Benyamini, Pepijn van Empelen, David French,
Peter Harris, Britta Renner, Fritz Strack
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RISK PERCEPTION
Antecedents
Consequences
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Risk perception as a dependent variable

• Is there a theory of risk perception?
• Examples of models and concepts used
• Heuristics (Tversky Kahneman)
• Psychometric approach (Fischhoff)
• Risk as feeling (Schwarz, Loewenstein)
• Distributive singular model (Slonan Klar,
  Medding Sarel)

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Key issues

• Theories of belief generation e.g., ELM, not
  specific to risk perception but can be used
• Earlier theories focus on cognitive processes,
  later ones put more emphasis on affect
• General risk perception, not self-specific risk
  perception
• Lists of predictors, not a comprehensive theory

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Risk perception as an independent variable

• Do we need risk perception?
• Risk perception as a threshold (acceptable risk)
• What are the outcomes?
• One-time behaviour
• Habit
• Emotional outcomes
• Simple vs complex situations

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Risk perception
Hazard
Behaviour
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Risk perception
Hazard
Behaviour
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Health Action Process Approach
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Risk perception
Hazard
Behaviour
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Risk perception
Hazard
Behaviour
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Future directions

• Health behaviour models capture more complex
  situations, but miss
• - Automatic processes
• Affect
• Motivation/Goal hierarchy
• Processes and feedback loops
• Interaction with other variables

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More missing aspects...

• Processing goals, e.g., Need for accuracy vs.
  Need for conclusions Need for reassurance vs.
  Need for information
• Social and cultural variables need to be
  translated into psychological variables
• Tailored models for specific behaviours?

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