Diapositive 1

1
European banana market 2005 a vintage to record
Revista FruiTrop Observatorio de los
mercados odm_at_cirad.fr http//passionfruit.cirad.fr
AEBE Guayaquil (Ecuador) 23 enero 2006
2
The Centre for International Cooperation on
Development-Oriented Agricultural Research

• Fruit and Horticultural Crops
• (CIRAD-FLHOR)
• banana, plantain and pineapple
• fruit trees
• horticultural products

Market News Service
Source Cirad/FruiTrop
3
Contents

• Supply in 2004
• Price review for 2005
• Import price
• Retail price for several European market
• Ratio retail price green price
• Difference between retail price and green price
• Special Focus on UK retail price evolution
• 2006 no sudden change after reform of the CMOB
• Conclusions

Source Cirad/FruiTrop
4
European market supply
2004 4 602 424 t for EU-25
Source Cirad/FruiTrop
5
2004 European banana supply by type of origin

• 2
• 2 000 t

• 2
• 3 000 t

4 499 000 t
Source Cirad/FruiTrop
6
Banana imports by member states in 2004
Source Cirad/FruiTrop
7
EU-25 banana supply
Source Cirad/FruiTrop
8
Banana UE Consumption per capita (1/2)
Source Cirad/FruiTrop
9
Banana UE Consumption per capita (2/2)
10.9
10.6
EU-25 average
10.1 kg Ex. Norway, UK 14.5 kg Germany 11 kg
7.6
kg per hab.
6.2
EU-15
New Member States
Source Cirad/FruiTrop/Freshfel
10
Price review for 2005 Import price
France import price
0.90
0.78
0.80
0.74
0.71
0.70
0.65
0.65
0.61
Euro/kg
0.60
0.56
0.53
0.55
0.55
0.53
0.53
0.50
0.40
0.30
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Becareful based on 2005 december price estimation
Source Cirad/FruiTrop
11
Price review for 2005 Import price
Germany import price ( Aldi  price)
Becareful based on 2005 december price estimation
Source Cirad/FruiTrop
12
Price review for 2005 Import price
Germany import price ( Aldi  price) by quarter
0.99
0.88
0.79
0.72
Euro/kg
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2005
2004
2003
Becareful based on 2005 december price estimation
Source Cirad/FruiTrop
13
Price review for 2005 Import price
Germany import price ( Aldi  price) by month
0.95
1.02
1.01
0.95
0.91
0.77
0.84
0.79
0.80
0.74
0.73
0.63
Euro/kg
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
2005
2004
2003
Becareful based on 2005 december price estimation
Source Cirad/FruiTrop
14
Price review for 2005 Import price
Spain import price for Canary banana Super Extra
1.20
1.09
1.10
1.00
0.84
0.90
Euro/kg
0.76
0.76
0.76
0.80
0.69
0.65
0.70
0.60
0.50
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Becareful based on 2005 december price estimation
Source Cirad/FruiTrop
15
From enlargement import price increase more and
more
Comparison 2005 and 2002/03
Comparison 2004 and 2002/03
80
60
40
Increase start just after enlargement
20
0
-20
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Source Cirad/FruiTrop
16
Less quantities and a capacity of importation
more concentrated

• A better calculation of the needs.
• The quota system fills its role.
• European African production and African below
  the average.
• The structuring effect of the system of
  distribution of the import licences.
• Even if the new added value created were not
  diffused in an equitable way
• the positive effects have finally perceived at
  the export and production stages.

Source Cirad/FruiTrop
17
Price review for 2005 Retail price
France promotion retail price
1.50
1.28
1.28
1.26
1.25
1.11
Euro/kg
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Becareful based on 2005 december price estimation
Source SNM/Cirad/FruiTrop
18
Price review for 2005 Retail price
Germany Average
Germany Discounter
1.37
1.35
1.12
1.23
1.22
1.19
1.16
0.91
0.89
Euro/kg
Euro/kg
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2003
2004
2005
Source TWMC/Cirad
19
Price review for 2005 Retail price
Spain  platano de Canaria 
1.86
1.48
1.43
1.33
1.26
Euro/kg
1.22
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Becareful based on 2005 december price estimation
Source TWMC/Cirad
20
Price review for 2005 Retail price in Czech
Republic
2003/2005 - Weekly evolution
Average yearly price
36
36
CSK/kg
28
28
26
26
CSK/kg
2003
2004
2005
2003
2004
2005
Becareful based on 2005 december price estimation
Source Cirad/FruiTrop
21
Price review for 2005 Retail price
FranceDifference between promotion retail price
and green price
FranceRatio retail price/green price
0.91
0.88
0.85
0.84
0.84
0.80
3.14
3.01
2.79
2.72
2.37
2.16
Euro/kg
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Becareful based on 2005 december price estimation
Source SNM/Cirad/FruiTrop
22
Price review for 2005 Retail price
Germany Difference between promotion retail
price and green price
GermanyRatio retail price/green price
2.07
2.00
1.92
1.91
1.89
0.62
0.62
1.63
0.57
0.56
0.55
Euro/kg
Euro/kg
0.52
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Becareful based on 2005 december price estimation
Source TWMC/Cirad
23
Price review for 2005 Retail price
SpainDifference between promotion retail price
and green price
SpainRatio retail price/green price
0.77
2.04
2.02
0.73
1.94
0.67
1.89
Euro/kg
1.82
Euro/kg
0.57
0.57
0.57
1.74
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Becareful based on 2005 december price estimation
Source TWMC/Cirad
24
Price review for 2005 Retail price
UKFrom May 2005, a new price step
UKAverage retail price
1.07
0.88
0.87
1.02
0.88
0.86
0.88
/kg
/kg
0.83
0.80
0.80
0.77
0.77
0.77
0.77
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
2005
2004
Becareful based on 2005 december price estimation
Source TWMC/Cirad
25
Price review for 2005 UK retail price
1.10
1.05
1.00
May 05 new step
0.95
0.90
/kg
0.85
0.80
0.75
0.70
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Becareful based on 2005 december price estimation
Source TWMC/Cirad
26
From 1 January 2006 No sudden change
 Aldi  import price
 The only thing about future that we can be sure
of is that it is never the same as
forecasts  Jean Dutour
Source Cirad/FruiTrop
27
A too good market

• Report price at exceptional level because of a
  low availability of banana
• Whats are the new mechanism after the reform of
  the European market?
• Strong competition by the increase of the number
  of operator and origin.
• Very strong sensitivity of the market very
  strong response of the market to a limited
  surplus of the offer.
• The actual high prices give hope to a large
  range of operator.
• The avaibility of banana is increasing with the
  rainy season.
• Conclusion much lower prices before at short
  term.

Source Cirad/FruiTrop
28
Prospects... in bulk

• Better knowledge of balances of market
• Competitor fruits (citrus, apple, etc.).
• World banana disponibility for traditional and
  new export countries.
• Behavior of the differents european markets
  (saisonnality, typicity, etc.)
• Tendencies to supervise
• Private standards more and more present
  behavior of Aldi that adopt Eurepgap for their
  banana suppliers.
• Concentration in the import sector in Europe.
• Supermarket strategy in an open european market.
• Increase of the added-value by politic of
  differentiation.
• Significant increase of European Community and
  member states budget because of the increase of
  customs dues. A way to finance collective project
  in producing countries?

Source Cirad/FruiTrop
29
Thanks you for your attention.
http//passionfruit.cirad.fr