AN EXAMPLE CASE STUDY IN SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT

1
AN EXAMPLECASE STUDY INSCENARIO DEVELOPMENT

• TELKOM SCENARIOS

2
TELKOM SCENARIOSDEVELOPMENT PROCESS

• ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING
• INFORMATION WORKSHOP
• ENVIRONMENT REPORTS
• SCENARIO WORKSHOP
• SCENARIO LOGICS WORKSHOP
• SCENARIO REVISION

3
ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNINGPARTICIPANTS QUESTIONNAIRE

• POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT
• ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
• SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT
• TECHNOLOGY ENVIRONMENT
• NATURAL/PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT

4
ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNINGPARTICIPANTS QUESTIONNAIRE

• WHAT CHANGES TRENDS, IMPORTANTTO TELKOM AND
  ITS BUSINESS, DOYOU OBSERVE?
• WHAT DRIVE THESE CHANGES? WHATFACTORS INTERACT
  TO PRODUCETHESE CHANGES?
• WHAT IMPACT IS THIS LIKELY TO HAVEIN THE FUTURE?
  WHY ARE THEYIMPORTANT?
• ...MORE

5
ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNINGPARTICIPANTS QUESTIONNAIRE

• WHICH HIGH IMPACT DEVELOPMENTSMAY UNFOLD IN
  FUNDAMENTALLYDIFFERENT DIRECTIONS, DEPENDINGON
  OUTCOME OF FUTURE EVENTS?(KEY UNCERTAINTIES)
• WHICH OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS ARE -UNDER CONTROL
  OF TELKOM? -MAY BE INFLUENCED BY TELKOM? -NOT
  INFLUENCABLE NOR CONTROLLABLE? (RULES OF THE
  GAME)

6
EXAMPLESOCIAL ENVIRONMENT

• TRENDS
• IMPACT ON TELKOM
• IMPLICATIONS
• SUGGESTED STRATEGIES

7
EXAMPLESOCIAL ENVIRONMENT

• TRENDS (E.G...)
• DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS
• GROWTH COMPOSITION
• OF POPULATION
• GEOGRAPHIC COMPOSITION/MOBILITY
• LANGUAGES
• LAND OWNERSHIP
• URBANISATION
• EDUCATION TRAINING
• ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATISM
• LABOUR TRENDS
• ROLE OF CONSUMERISM
• SOCIO POLITICAL

8
EXAMPLESOCIAL ENVIRONMENT

• IMPACT ON TELKOM (E.G...)
• MORE MIDDLE CLASS AREAS
• INCREASED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
• RANGE OF SERVICE TYPES DEMANDED
• INCREASED UNEMPLOYMENT
• .....
• POSSIBLE SOCIAL STRATEGY (E.G...)
• INTERNAL MEDICAL SERVICES
• PROVIDE SERVICES IN OTHER LANGUAGES
• SUB-ECONOMIC SERVICE PROVISION
• .....

9
ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNINGPROCESS

• QUESTIONNAIRE
• WORKSHOP
• ENVIRONMENTS REPORTS
• PRESENTATIONS
• KEY UNCERTAINTIES RULES OF THE GAME

10
KEY UNCERTAINTIESWORKGROUP SYNTHESIS

• NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT?
• ....
• SOCIO-POLITICAL STABILITY
• ....
• ORIGIN, NATURE, STRENGTH, TIMINGOF FUTURE
  COMPETITION
• ROLE OF REGULATORY BODY
• ....
• (15)

11
SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT
KEY UNCERTAINTIES
RULES OF THE GAME
INTERPRETATION
SCENARIOS 1,2 3
IN WORKGROUPS
12
SCENARIOSEACH SCENARIO

• BASIC SCENARIO DESCRIPTIONSTORY RELATING
  OUTCOMESOF KEY UNCERTAINTIES
• CHAIRMAN'S REPORT FOR 1997UNDER SCENARIO
• DAY IN THE LIFE OF- KEY TELKOM EMPLOYEE
  KEY TELKOM STAKEHOLDERFOR 1997, UNDER SCENARIO.

13
SCENARIOSRESULTS

• SKELETON, FRAMEWORK SCENARIOS
• OWNERSHIP, CREDIBILITY,UNDERSTANDING,
  IDENTIFICATION
• QUALITY LOW

SCENARIO REFINEMENT
14
TELKOM SCENARIO LOGICSFACTORS SHAPING CHANGE

• DEGREE OF STABILITY INSOCIO POLITICAL SPHERE
  SCENARIO 1 HIGHER SCENARIO 2 LOWER
• NEW GOVT. SOCIO-ECON.MNGMNT PHILOSOPHY S1
  OPEN ENLIGHTENED S2 CLOSED SOCIALISTIC
• DEGREE OF REGULATION INTELECOM. INDUSTRY S1
  LESS REGULATED S2 STRONGLY REGULATED

MORE...
15
TELKOM SCENARIO LOGICSFACTORS SHAPING CHANGE

• ...MORE
• METHOD OF EXACTING SATISFACTIONOF SOCIAL
  DEVELOPMENT NEEDS S1 HANDS OFF, INDIRECT
  S2 FORCED AND DIRECT
• TELKOM'S ABILITY TO COPEWITH CHANGE S1
  COMPETENT S2 RESTRICTED

16
TELKOM SCENARIO LOGICDERIVED FROM SKELETON
SCENARIOS
2. Degree of philoso-
1. Degree of socio-
phical enlightenment
political stability
S
O
S
4. Degree of directness
O
3. Degree of industry
regulation
of exacting need
satisfaction
O
O
5. Competence in
coping with change
17
REVISED SCENARIOSANALYSIS OF FACTORS

• SOCIO-POLITICAL STABILITY
• GOVERNMENT'S SOCIO-ECONOMIC PHILOSOPHY
• TELECOMMUNICATIONS INDUSTRY

18
REVISED SCENARIOSSCENARIOS (2)

• STABILITY IN SOCIO-POLITICAL SPHERE
• NEW GOVERNMENT'S SOCIO-ECONOMICMANAGEMENT
  PHILOSOPHY
• TELECOMMUNICATIONS REGULATORYSCENE
• METHOD OF SATISFYING SOCIALDEVELOPMENT NEEDS
• TELKOM'S COPING WITH CHANGE

HANDS OFF, LOW GEAR REVERSE GEAR SCENARIOS
19
TELKOM SCENARIOSTHE RATIONALE FOR SCENARIOS
.... THE PROBLEM WITH FORECASTS, NO MATTER HOW
COMPLEX OR SOPHISTI- CATED, IS THAT THEY FAIL
IN ANTICIPATING MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE ENVIRONMENT.
....
20
TELKOM SCENARIOSTHE RATIONALE FOR SCENARIOS
.... UNCERTAINTY TODAY IS NOT JUST AN OCCASIONAL
TEMPORARY DEVIATION FROM PREDICTABILITY, IT IS
A BASIC STRUCTURAL FEATURE OF THE BUSINESS
ENVIRONMENT. ...
21
TELKOM SCENARIOSTHE RATIONALE FOR SCENARIOS
.... PLANNERS MAY WELL ACCEPT IT AND CONCENTRATE
ON A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE FORCES AT WORK
AND BETTER TESTING OF UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS. ....
END
22
And the point is?

• Impact Feeling good
• Round two The demise of Telkom Feeling very
  worried
• Impact participation
• Participation scenario quality