Chapter 1: The Market

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Technology and Innovation Foresight
Daniela Tchonkova Coordinator, ARC Fund
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What do we mean by FORESIGHT?

• Martin (1995) - Research foresight is the
  process involved in systematically attempting to
  look into the longer-term future of science,
  technology, the economy and society with the aim
  of identifying the areas of strategic research
  and the emerging generic technologies likely to
  yield the greatest economic and social benefits.
• Georghiou (1996) - Technology foresight is a
  systematic means of assessing those scientific
  and technological developments which could have a
  strong impact on industrial competitiveness,
  wealth creation and quality of life.

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Forecasting, Planning, and Foresight (1)

• Foresight can use forecasts, as well as
  contribute to planning, but it should not be
  confused with either activity.
• Forecasting tends to assume that there is one
  probable future, whereas Foresight assumes that
  there are numerous possible futures, and that the
  future is in fact there to be created through the
  actions we choose to take today.

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Forecasting, Planning, and Foresight (2)

• As for planning, Foresight time horizons should
  be beyond the usual planning period, but not so
  far out as to turn people off.
• But Foresight should not be seen simply in terms
  of the value it may make as inputs to planning
  processes. A common rationale for doing Foresight
  centres on the so-called process benefits the
  five Cs.
• Communication
• Concentration on the longer term
• Co-ordination
• Consensus
• Commitment

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Five essential elements

• Anticipation and projections of long-term
  developments
• Interactive and participative methods of debate
  and analysis
• Forgoing new social networks
• Elaboration of strategic visions based on a
  shared sense of commitment
• Implications for present-day decisions and
  actions

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Common aims of Foresight

• Direction-setting
• Determining priorities
• Anticipatory intelligence
• Informing debate
• Increasing involvement
• Building social capital
• Building identities
• Advocacy
• Consensus-generation
• Communication education

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Why Foresight? (1)

• Extremely important tool to meet the present-day
  and future challenges but it NOT a panacea
• Foresight can improve the policy formulation
  process by emphasising the possibility of
  alternative futures, and hence the opportunity
  for shaping our futures

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Systematic approach
Collecting future intelligence
Why FORESIGHT
Building medium-to-long-term visions
Participatory process
Mobilizing joint actions
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Growing competitiveness
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Achieving sustainability in policy making
Why FORESIGHT
Future-oriented approach, projection in the future
Linking business and research
Ownership of results - lobbying
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Typical stakeholders in a Foresight exercise

• Foresight is about providing a framework for
  ongoing DIALOGUE between various societal actors,
  such as
• Government
• Industry
• Academia natural social scientists
• Others, e. g NGOs, trade unions, the media,
  banks, schools, the general public, etc.
• An important benefit for these actors is mutual
  (and collective) learning