Science, Technology

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Science, Technology Public Policy
The CTBT
RPDS
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Prologue
Wave Functions
U
c0?0 c1?1 c2?2 . . . . cn?n
Schrödinger, Annalen der Physik, 1926
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Science, Technology National Security Policy
An Exploding Wire Studying the
obscure Exploiting the power of knowledge
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Exploding Wires Triggers of Power
Nagasaki, August 9, 1945
Robert Oppenheimer
Enrico Fermi
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Scientific Understanding Knowledge and the Root
of Power
Fission

Fusion
Lise Meitner
Otto Hahn
Leo Szilard
Edward Teller
Stan Ulam
Andrei Sakharov
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Testing the Theory Building the Arsenal
Science in pursuit of knowledge and influence
upon policy
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Other Nations, Other Testing
Nation First Nuclear Detonation USA 1945 USS
R 1949 England 1952 France 1959 China 1
964 India 1974 Pakistan 1998 South Africa
? Israel -
Craig, Jungerman, Nuclear Arms Race, 1990.
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Fallout Detection of Nuclear ExplosionsThe
Collision of Politics and Technology
From 1945-1963, there are 650 test detonations of
nuclear devices --most exploded in the atmosphere.
In 1963, international fear of radio-active
fallout prompts the LTBT.
From 1963 to the present, a twilight struggle to
ratify a CTBT ensues --and another 1100 nuclear
detonations occur.
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The Motivations for Testing Nuclear Weapons

• Stockpile stewardship
• Innovation
• Sustaining technical expertise
• Modernizing nuclear explosion detection systems
• Weapons effects
• Political

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CTBTThe Science Technology of Stockpile
Stewardship

• The explosive core in the primary of a nuclear
  weapon is plutonium.

• Plutonium decays (half-life 24,100 years)

239Pu 235U 4He

• Alpha particles induce crystal modifications
  within the core that reduce its explosive yield
  and the reliability of the weapon.

Sidney Drell, et al, Science, 2/19/99.
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Nuclear Weapons Testing New Realities

• High-speed computing and microscopic ignition of
  fusion

• Growing global supplies of fissile fuel

• Underemployed weapons scientists

• Escalating regional conflict

• Global commerce

• Ease of information flow

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The Comprehensive Test Ban TreatyCTBT
The purpose of CTBT is to discontinue experiments
like this one
CE News, October 19, 1998
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The History of CTBTThe Collision of Political
and Technological Thought

• 1956 - 1958 --Failed American Soviet negotiations
• 1958 - 1961 --Testing moratorium
• 1963 --The LTBT
• 1976 --The TTBT
• 1996 --CTBT (Yet to be ratified)

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CTBTTechnology and DetectionThe Hinge of the
Dilemma
CTBT is a ninety-nine page document, largely
concerned with establishing and operating the
International Monitoring System (IMS)
IMS is a collection of 321 seismic, infrasound,
hyroacoustic, and radio-nuclide sensors
distributed among 89 nations and Antarctica
Each nation will establish National Data Centers
(NDC) and links to an International Data Centre
(IDC), for purposes of sharing data
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Big Government and Big Science The Science
Technology of CTBT
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CTBTListening for Nuclear Explosions
50 Stations
http//www.ctbt.rnd.doe.gov/ctbt/introduction/infr
asound_mon.html
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CTBTSeismology and Detection of Nuclear
Explosions
Developing the algorithms and databases required
for reliable detection at 167 stations Los Alamos
and Livermore National Labs
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CTBTSampling the Atmosphere for Radionuclides
80 Stations
The Automated RadioXenon Sampler/Analyzer
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CTBTListening for Nuclear Explosions Under Water
11 Stations
The work of LLNL , The Naval Research Labs, and
Scripps School of Oceanography
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CTBTSatellites and Detecting Nuclear Explosions
from Space
Forte Fast on-Orbit Recording of Transient
Events
Fast

http//nis-www.lanl.gov/nis-projects/forte/
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CTBTAssembling the Data
International Monitoring System
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CTBTThe Challenges of Verification and
Reliability
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CTBTThe Architecture of an Agreement
CE News, 10/19/98
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CTBTListening for Explosions, Interpreting the
DataWhat Does it All Mean?

• 1949 -USAF aircraft capture radionuclides that
  announce the first Soviet A-bomb
• 1979 -Satellite optical sensors detect the
  signature of nuclear explosions
• 1985 -Seismic measurements suggest illegal
  testing by the Soviets, disputed by independent
  seismologists
• 1998 -IMS monitoring of Indian and Pakistani
  nuclear tests

CE News, 10/19/98
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Epilog
A Tale of Parallel Universes
Hanford
Nevada test site
Sarov
Livermore
Oak Ridge
Los Alamos
Lesnoy
Zelenogorsk
Savannah River
Snezhinsk
Seversk
Aleutians
Ulam, Teller, Oppenheimer, Lawrence, Szilard,
Pauling, . . .
Kurchatov, Sakharov, Smirnov, Khariton, Fuchs, .
. .
And Global Anxiety