Role of China in SSA: Trade

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Role of China in SSATrade

• Raphael Kaplinsky
• Institute of Development Studies,
• Centre for Research in Innovation Management

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A taxonomy for assessing the impact of Asian
Drivers on other economies
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The impacts may be competitive or complementary
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And they may be direct or indirect
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We know much more about the direct impacts
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From the rich country perspective, we tend to
focus on the competitive effects
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But in SSA, the complementary impacts are often
much more visible
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Focusing on the trade vector
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SHARE OF CT EXPORTS DIRECTED TO THE US
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CLOTHING AND TEXTILES EXPORTS ARE IMPORTANT

• Lesotho, clothing and textiles accounted for 99
  of manufactured exports and 50 of GDP in 2002
• Kenya in 2003, employment in EPZ clothing
  enterprises accounted for the equivalent of
  nearly 20 percent of all formal sector
  manufacturing employment

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CLOTHING AND TEXTILE IMPORTS INTO US (m)
2005/2004
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CLOTHING AND TEXTILE IMPORTS INTO US UNIT PRICES
2005/2004 Top 10 products
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Actual and projected global share of Chinas
consumption of base metals
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SSA EXPORTS
SA, Lesotho, Swaziland, Madagascar, Kenya,
Mauritius
Hard commodities
Clothing footwear
SSA LOSS
SSA GAIN
Oil exporters, Zambia, SA, DRC, Botswana, Ghana,
Gabon, etc
CHINA IMPORTS
CHINA EXPORTS
Oil
All SSA
Clothing footwear
SSA GAIN
SSA LOSS
Most SSA
SSA IMPORTS
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Policy conclusions

• Changing terms of trade
• Industrial policy
• or do we mean innovation policy?
• A level playing field?
• Slow down trade policy reform within SSA
• Look east