Modeling

1
Modeling Forecasting Breakout Group

• Input to SECOORA Business Plan
• (Jacksonville, July 27-28, 2005)?

2
Modeling Forecasting Current

• What we have
• - global models NCOM, HYCOM
• - mature wave model software for nearshore
• - quasi-operational models for most estuaries
• - developing coral habitat maps
• Validation needs
• - NCOM HYCOM in SECOORA region
• - Standardized validation methods
• Data needs
• - More observations to drive models
• Computational resources
• - Scattered between groups uncoordinated
• Lambda rail

3
Modeling Forecasting 1 year

• Computational Facilities
• - centralized vs distributed
• - plan for future needs
• Virtual Operations Center
• - design the infrastructure
• - determine data needs
• - begin region-wide ensembles
• Biological/fish models
• - assess data needs
• - plan model development

4
Modeling Forecasting 2-5 year

• Computational Facilities
• - build shared facilities
• - expand national coastal ocean modeling grid
• Virtual Operations Center
• - implement from seaward edge of EEZ to
  estuaries/lagoons/rivers
• - components storm surge, tides, waves,
  circulation, ecosystems
• - error tracking
• Biological models
• - address recruitment, larval transport, etc.
• - fish stock assessment

5
Modeling ForecastingAction Items

• Develop communication mechanism
• Web-based clearinghouse
• SECOORA news web-resources volunteers?
• Develop Strategic Plan for Modeling Forecasting
  
• Plan transitions to operations
• Coordination between groups
• Define test beds
• Investigate System Engineering Approach
• Establish a Virtual Operations Center

6
Modeling ForecastingAction Items

• Develop PRIORITIZED list of user needs
• What can we do now?
• What are criteria for prioritization
• Engage the National Backbone
• Through NFRA, Ocean.US
• Get Academic Results into Fed Agencies?
• Start with NWS waves
• Demonstrate academic capabilities
• Engage in Federal planning/funding processes