Frames

1
A Comparison of US and Canadian Industry
Environmental Performance Using EIO-LCA Models
by Andrew Bjorn Interdisciplinary PhD Program in
Urban Planning University of Washington Heather
L. MacLean Department of Civil Engineering Univers
ity of Toronto 27 September 2003
2
An Overview

• Basic concepts of the EIO-LCA model
• EIO-LCA in the US and Canada
• Creating the Canadian EIO-LCA model
• Comparisons between models
• Concluding remarks

3
What are Input-Output (IO) Models?

• Introduced by Wasily Leontief in 1941
• used to identify bottlenecks in wartime
  production
• Based on lists of transactions between industries
  (System of National Accounts)
• Assesses total economic impacts associated with
  an increase in final demand

4
The Environment and IO Models

• Some researchers have correlated environmental
  impacts with commodity outputs
• Water use
• Solid waste production
• Ecological footprints
• Energy use
• Carnegie Mellon Green Design Initiative
  Environmental Input-Output Model

5
The EIO-LCA as an Equation

• This model can be expressed in matrix form
• ?E E (I - BD)-1 ?Y
• where ?E change in environmental
  factors
• E environmental coefficients
• B direct requirements matrix
• D market share matrix
• (I - BD)-1 total requirements matrix
• ?Y column vector of demand change

6
Assessment of EIO-LCA Approach

• Advantages
• economy-wide analysis solves scoping problem
• quick results possible with analysis
• provides an understanding of interrelationships
• Disadvantages
• not geographically sensitive
• use, disposal phases of life-cycle not included
• commodity sectors are very aggregated

7
Economic Components

• Based on data from Statistics Canada
• M-level input-output tables
• 62 industries, 103 commodities
• commodity-by-industry make and use tables
• monetary values given in 1992 dollars
• Data suppression is a significant issue
• some statistics unavailable - privacy concerns
• data estimated from 1992-1997 data

8
Environmental Components

• Greenhouse gas emissions
• data from Environment Canada inventory
• CO2, methane, nitrous oxide
• Nonrenewable resource use
• data from NRCan, Environment Canada
• fuel use, aluminum, iron ore, copper, nickel
• National Pollutant Release Inventory (NPRI)
• 1998 data - 130 waste compounds
• air emissions, total waste emissions

9
Comparing the US and Canada

• Preliminary test of Canadian EIO-LCA model
• Some important differences to note
• Greater proportion of Canada is in cold climate
• More hydroelectric capacity in Canada
• Exporter of natural resources
• Differences in regulations, reporting strategies
  (i.e. TRI versus NPRI)
• Differences in commodity reporting

10
Comparing the US and Canada

• Test scenario to compare models
• final demand US1 million (1997 dollars)
• C1.36 million (1992 dollars, 1998 model)
• Ten sectors examined

11
Comparison - Economic impact
Economic multiplier
Sector
12
Comparison - Energy
Energy Required (TJ / million)
Sector
13
Comparison - Electricity
Electricity Required (GW-h / million)
Sector
14
Comparison - GHG emissions
GHG emissions increase ( Mt CO2 eq / million)
Sector
15
Concluding Remarks

• Notable differences in model results
• differences in classifications, economic
  structure
• (note inefficiencies in certain sectors)
• errors in data analysis
• actual differences in impacts between countries
• May be significant regional differences
• Manitoba, Quebec more hydro
• Alberta, Saskatchewan more fossil-fuel
• Further research to confirm conclusions

16
Concluding Remarks

• Final goal creating a bi-regional EIO-LCA model
• Importance of bilateral trade 35 of US exports
  to Canada, 90 of Canadian exports to US
• Increasing integration of economic sectors
• Automotive
• Hydroelectricity
• Forestry
• Oil and gas
• Necessary to provide an international scope

17
Acknowledgements

• Laura Declercq-Lopez and Sabrina Spatari
• University of Toronto
• Prof. William Beyers
• Department of Geography, University of Washington
• Prof. Marina Alberti
• Department of Urban Planning, University of
  Washington