COGNITIVE REPRESENTATIONS OF THE FUTURE: SURVEY RESULTS

1
COGNITIVE REPRESENTATIONS OF THE FUTURE SURVEY
RESULTS

• Bruce Tonn, University of Tennessee
• Fred Conrad, University of Michigan
• Angela Hemrick, University of Tennessee

WFSF CONFERENCE Budapest, Hungary August, 2005
2
OUTLINE

• Purpose of the Survey
• Survey Design
• Survey Participants
• Results
• Conclusions

3
PURPOSE OF THE SURVEY

• How do people think about the future?
• It is important for futurists to understand how
  people think about the future.
• This research draws upon lessons learned in the
  general field of risk perception
• Experts and non-experts perceive risks
  differently
• Non-experts employ heuristics
• Communication between experts and non-experts is
  often difficult

4
SURVEY INSTRUMENT EXAMPLE QUESTIONS

• How many years into the future do people think
  about when they hear the word future?
• To what extent do people think and worry about
  the future?
• How far into the future do people find it
  difficult to clearly imagine possible futures?

5
SURVEY INSTRUMENT DESIGN

• Web-based survey
• Cost efficient
• Potential to reach broad set of potential
  respondents
• Came to be international in scope
• No restrictions on respondents according to age,
  income, education, etc.
• Networked sample of convenience
• Collected data from January to April, 2004

6
SURVEY RESPONDENTS

• 572 respondents 25 non-US
• 54.3 female
• 29 lt 30 yrs 46 30-50 yrs 25 gt 50
• 87 Caucasian
• 27 single 56 married
• 48 no children 15 1 child 37 gt 1
• 7 poor 59 middle class 34 upper middle or
  upper
• 59 work full-time 19 student 6 retired
• 92 some college or more education
• 55 Christian 3 Jewish 4 Asian Traditional
  8 Pagan or New Age 27 Secular or non-religious

7
How many years into the future does the word
future mean to you? (years)
8
How frequently do you think about what your life
will be likeinto the future? (1v. freq. 2s.
freq. 3not v. freq. 4never)
9
How worried are you about what your life will be
like into the future? (1vw 2sw 3nvw 4not
at all)
10
How clearly can you imagine the future into the
future? (1vc 2sc 3nvc 4not at all)
11
How optimistic are you about the future into the
future? (1vo 2so 3neither 4sp 5vp)
12
How actively should humanity plan for the
future? (1va 2sa 3nva 4not at all)
13
PEARSON CORRELATIONS AMONG CONCEPTIONS OF THE
FUTURE
plt 0.01 plt 0.05
14
How responsibly is humankind addressing the
future regarding ()
15
Please indicate how much you agree ()
16
If you could have been born in the future, how
far into the future would you like to have been
born? ()
17
Do you believe that humankind will become
extinct? ()
18
Why Do You Think That Humankind Will Become
Extinct? ()
19
CONCLUSIONS

• Respondents appear to interpret the word future
  within the context of their own lives.
• The future goes dark after 15-20 years.
• Optimism declines into the future.
• Respondents who think more about the future can
  imagine the future better.
• Respondents and humankind face different futures.
  
• Almost one-half believe that humankind will
  become extinct.

20
CONCLUSIONS (cont.)

• Cognitive representations about the future differ
  demographically
• Christians appear less concerned about the
  future.
• Young respondents appear more concerned about the
  future.
• Females had rather not be born in the future.
• Cognitive representations appear quite complex.
• Time dependent optimism/pessimism
• Complex combinations of thinking, worrying and
  imagining the future

21
CONCLUSIONS (cont.)

• Futurists and non-futurists probably think about
  the future in different ways.
• Impact communication, acceptance of futures
  studies
• Personal worldviews appear to significantly
  impact how people think about the future.
• It may difficult, even anxiety provoking, to get
  people to think about the future past their
  darkness threshold.
• Nevertheless, it appears likely that people can
  be trained to better think about the future.

22
SOME NEXT STEPS

• Survey a more representative population.
• Study the impact of worldviews on how people
  think about the future in more depth.
• Develop methods to determine whether people are
  good at thinking about the future.
• Study how people experience the future.
• Develop better methods to help people become
  better futurists.