4M14 7 Sessions Engineering for Sustainable Development

1
4M14 - 7 Sessions Engineering for Sustainable
Development

• Session 1
• Introduction to Sustainable Development
• Charles Ainger
• Visiting Professor for Engineering for
  Sustainable Development,
• Cambridge University Engineering Department

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Let me introduce myself...

• My CV, as Visiting Professor
• engineering education - (CUED 2.1. in 1965!)
  MScs
• 36 years as civil engineer in water and
  environment
• technical management experience - constructor,
  designer, consultant, strategy advisor
• Day job Head of Sustainable Development with
  MWH Ltd

Visiting Professor remit Sustainable
development must be central to engineering
education, and must be brought into the heart of
education and research (CUED, 1999)
Why should you listen? As you start work in
engineering, sustainability issues are becoming
central to engineers professional role - and to
our ability to get things done. Your
understanding of the issues will be important,
and very saleable.
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And the course...

• Its about us and our planet Earth - our people,
  environment and quality of life
• and how sustainable (or not) we can be - the key
  issue of the twenty-first century.

...and what engineers have to do with it
4
Where we stand now - social inequalityIf the
world had only 100 people

• You would find 57 Asians, 21 Europeans, 14 North
  and South Americans, and 8 Africans
• 70 would be non-white
• 70 would be non-Christian
• 59 of the worlds wealth would be owned by 6
  people
• All six people would be citizens of the US
• 80 would live in sub-standard housing
• 70 would be unable to read
• 50 would suffer from malnutrition
• 1 would own a computer
• Only one would have a college education

Is this socially sustainable? We need
development
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But, if Development gave global equality of
quality of life and resource use

• If we accepted that all people on Earth are
  entitled to use as much resource per capita as UK
  now...
• By 2050 we would need 1.5 to 8.5 Earths to
  sustain us all, using current technologies..

To allow that development, our technologies
need to become environmentally sustainable.
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Engineers and Sustainability

• Quite simply - Development the sum of our
  products and projects - of our application of
  technology
• In these applications, engineers carry out,
  influence or decide
• the options evaluated
• the decision-making criteria, and the decision
• the detailed design and implementation/production
  
• For development to become sustainable,
  engineers must incorporate sustainability into
  all our planning and engineering of products and
  projects
• This course is all about how to start to do that.

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Introduction to sustainable development

• Course Overview
• Sustainable Development the issues debate
• Update from Johannesburg
• The social dimension
• The environmental dimension
• What is enough?
• Challenges to change

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Aims, for this course on sustainable development

• Explore the triple bottom lines of
  sustainability economic, environmental and
  social how they challenge engineering, and what
  can be done to improve our future prospects.
• Provide a high level overview, in a way that is
  relevant to engineers, but deals with issues much
  wider than just the technical.
• Study the application of sustainability
  principles by looking at how engineering serves
  needs, and causes impacts, in three key areas -
  energy, water and waste.
• Look at the environmental and social learning
  that engineers will need, and at the barriers to
  change and how these might be overcome.

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The seven 2 - hour sessions

• 1. Introduction to sustainable development (GL) -
  today
• 2. Energy and Climate Change (GL) - 22nd October
• 3. Water - 29th October
• 4. Engineers Sustainable Development - 5th
  November
• 5. Waste and Materials Use (GL) - 12th November
• 6. Impacts, Indicators Consultation (GL) - 19th
  November
• 7. Changing to sustainability - 26th November

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How we will run the course

• TEACHING Will be interactive and discussion
  orientated. You will be expected to read
  background notes and articles prior to the
  lectures so that you can participate fully in
  lively debate relating to the subject.
• ASSESSMENT 100 coursework there will be three
  assignments, using a combination of numerical,
  analytical and written analysis.
• Whole Course How does Sustainable Development
  affect my initial area of engineering career
  choice?
• Session 2 An Energy Strategy
• Session 6 The Impact of a Superquarry

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Introduction to sustainable development

• Course Overview
• Sustainable Development the issues debate
• Update from Johannesburg
• The social dimension
• The environmental dimension
• What is enough?
• Challenges to change

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There is a vital debate going on, about the
future

• On technology and ecology
• Technology magicians - there are no limits
  science technology will save us
• Deep Green Doomsayers - the earth is in deep
  trouble were going downhill fast

• And on the economic system
• The Economist view - capitalism and
  globalisation are the only deliverers of growth
  and development
• The Seattle Prague protesters view - they
  are (part of) the problem, not the (only)
  solution we must give people back control over
  their own lives

I come down nearer the second.
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The global picture - where we stand now

• We are modifying physical, chemical and
  biological systems in new ways, at faster rates,
  and over larger spatial scales than ever recorded
  on Earth. Humans have unwittingly embarked upon a
  grand experiment with our planet. The outcome is
  unknown, but has profound implications for all of
  life.
  (President, American Academy
  for the Advancement of Science)
• In the developed North, we are each typically
  using 3-5 times as much of the Earths resources
  as our fair share.
• As long as economic power is so unbalanced and
  the terms of trade so skewed, the resources of
  the weak will always be appropriated to further
  the development of the rich. Its built into
  the system.
• (New Internationalist, Nov. 2000)

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On social need, there is some good news on
health, literacy and education...
(Source Economist, 2002)
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But - Poverty remains a major problem

• Between 1987 and 1998, in developing and
  transition economies
• the number of people living on lt 1/day fell from
  28 to 24, but
• the absolute number of poor people hardly
  changed.
• In India, over 80 live on lt 2,day, and over 40
  on lt 1/day

(Source Tomorrows Markets, WBCSD, 2002 from
World Bank)
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Many Terms of Trade still worsen..(Juan Marcel
Santos - Treasury Minister, Columbia - in London,
May 2002)

• In 1997, the final consumer spent 30 Billion on
  coffee, and producing countries received 12
  Billion, or 40. At present, consumers are
  spending 66 Billion a year - or more than twice
  the 1997 figure - while producers are receiving
  5.5 Billion, or 9.
• The value of sales has doubled, while producer
  incomes have fallen to less than a quarter. The
  leading multinational marketing firms are holding
  on to their enormous profits at the expense both
  of growers in the developing coffee-producing
  countries, and consumers in developed countries.
  
• (Observer, 8 September 2002)

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Our Ecological Footprint is already
unsustainable?
Ecological Footprint An estimate of human
pressure on global ecosystems, expressed in area
units - food, wood, infrastructure, CO2
absorption

• 1. World average footprint/capita was constant
  between 1985 - 1996 2.85ha/capita
• 2. UK average is 5.3ha/capita
• 3. My own is 8.5ha/capita (BBC Online Quiz)
• 4 The worlds footprint (1999) is about 1.25 x
  the 11.2 Bn Ha available

(Source Geo3 and Economist 6/7/02)
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Some complex regional or global systems show
signs of failing

• Traffic congestion in UK?
• Centralised and industrialised UK agriculture
  (see foot and mouth)?
• Worldwide fish resources - stocks collapse?
• Global warming/climate change - floods?
• Terrorist atrocities like September 11th -
  nurtured by political, social and economic
  insecurity and inequality?

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Terrorism, political, economic social
insecurity inequality

• To adapt Tony Blairs comment on crime we need
  to be
• tough on terrorism tough on the causes of
  terrorism

Surely terrorism - and the insecurity and in-
equality which help fuel it - are unsustainable?
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But, there is a debate about impact - the
Sceptical Environmentalist

• Bjorn Lomborg challenges environmentalists as
  exaggerating
• He asks some good questions, and challenges many
  of the facts - read the article (and the book?)
• He has been refuted by other scientists - that
  he is re-challenging old examples that have
  long been acknowledged as out of date that he
  claims the good bits but fails to acknowledge
  the still bad that he is just as subjectively
  selective of the facts he likes as those he
  challenges - but the questioning approach is
  needed.
• The issue is too important to be arguing about
  the facts
• Authoritative sources GEO 3, World Resources
  Institute, etc

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I find this quite convincing - because it is
private advice to Government..

• The real level of world inequality and
  environmental degradation may be far worse than
  official estimates, according to a leaked
  document prepared for the worlds richest
  countries

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Where do these trends lead?

• Over the last 50 years, development -
  comprising engineering projects, and products -
  has benefited large numbers of people, world
  widebut
• The way we have been doing our development is
  often unsustainable - in social and
  environmental terms
• This leads to real fears about the security and
  quality of life that my children, and
  grandchildren - and you and yours - and the
  worlds - can expect

We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors -
we borrow it from our children
(Anon)
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Sustainability definitions - start with the
Dictionary (Collins, 2nd Ed 1986)

• Sustain
• to maintain or prolong
• to support physically
• to provide or give support to - esp. by
  providing necessities

• Sustenance
• means of sustaining health or life nourishment
• means of maintenance livelihood

This is beginning to give us the idea...
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Sustainable development - a definition,
progress?

• Original definition
• Sustainable development meets the needs of the
  present without compromising the ability of
  future generations to meet their own needs
  (Brundtland
  Commission 1987)
• So the concept goes back 15 years for all the
  grand declarations, things have moved slowly but
  by now sustainability has become almost a
  mainstream - even overused - word..
• More recently
• A dynamic process which enables all people to
  realise their potential and to improve their
  quality of life in ways which simultaneously
  protect and enhance the earths life support
  systems
  (Forum for the Future)

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Sustainable development aims to balance three
elements

• Economic what things cost - and how to make a
  business out of providing infrastructure, goods
  or services
• Environmental what impact those things have on
  nature and the earths support systems - which
  are finite
• Social how those things serve the needs and
  quality of life of people and their communities

Technology is neither good nor bad in itself -
how we choose to apply it determines whether a
good balance is achieved.
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Introduction to sustainable development

• Course Overview
• Sustainable Development the issues debate
• Update from Johannesburg - Heather Cruickshank
• The social dimension
• The environmental dimension
• What is enough?
• Challenges to change

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Thats my overview - but where are you starting
from?

• 1. How much do you know already about the
  sustainable development debate - and your own
  contribution?
• Please will you fill do the BBC Web-site Quiz?
  http//news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/in_depth/
  world/2002/disposable_planet/ - by next week?
• 2. So how much have you already come across the
  subject - or mention of sustainability,
  environment, society, values, impacts or
  limits to growth in your 3.5 years of CUED
  courses so far? (In particular, if you have done
  any economics courses)
• Please discuss and summarise as feedback - in
  which courses?

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Introduction to sustainable development

• Course Overview
• Sustainable Development the issues debate
• Update from Johannesburg
• The social dimension
• The environmental dimension
• What is enough?
• Challenges to change

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The Social Dimensions of Sustainable Development

• Social how projects and products serve the needs
  and quality of life of people and their
  communities
• It is the last of the three dimensions to be
  considered - because hardest to define?
• How would we define - and measure
• nurturing community
• equitable social environment
• well-being?

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Example is this a UK equitable social
environment?
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Sub-division of the Social Dimension - the Five
Capitals approach

• Financial Capital - money
• Human Capital - our staff, internally - skills,
  health, values, morale
• Social Capital - our communities, externally -
  security, culture, support, wealth,
  decision-making
• Natural capital - environment, landscape,
  species, diversity
• Man-made capital - buildings, infrastructure

• Human capital - staff - issues are coming up
  the agenda, as we move into the Knowledge
  Economy (Not in this course)
• Social Responsibility features in competing
  corporate reports

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The Social Dimension in The Natural Step SD
conditions..

• The Four System Conditions
• In the sustainable society, nature is not subject
  to systematically increasing
• 1. Concentrations of substances extracted from
  the Earths crust
• 2. Concentrations of substances produced by
  society
• 3. Degradation by physical means
• and, in that society
• 4. Human needs are met world-wide.

• The system conditions are used as objectives to
  create a vision of the activity in a sustainable
  society
• 4. This means using all our resources
  efficiently, fairly and responsibly so that the
  needs of all our stakeholders customers, staff,
  neighbours, people in other parts of the world,
  and people who are not yet born stand the best
  chance of being met.

How would we define fair and responsible?
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Some questions about the social dimensions

• 1. What defines a socially sustainable product?
  (however sustainably it is produced?) (see S.4
  and S.5)
• 2. What social objectives should infrastructure
  projects take account of, in choosing the
  sustainable option? (See S.6)
• 3. Does including social components help
  deliver sustainable engineering solutions? (See
  S.6)
• 4. How do we consult properly with local
  communities? (See S.6)

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Introduction to sustainable development

• Course Overview
• Sustainable Development the issues debate
• Update from Johannesburg
• The social dimension
• The environmental dimension
• What is enough?
• Challenges to change

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The Environmental Dimension within Sustainable
Development

• Environmental what impact projects and products
  have on nature and the earths support systems -
  which are finite
• The need to protect the environment has become
  accepted - almost the establishment view

But.the hard part is - an addiction to
growth, on a finite planet.
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A finite Earth and a delicate balance
The Goldilocks Effect
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Growth on a finite, delicate planet - the most
important equation

• The IPAT equation
• I P x A x T
• I Global environmental impact
• P Population
• A Affluence (Level of services used)
• T Technology used (resource or waste
  assimilation efficiency)

• Engineers most direct everyday impact is on the
  T - the technology
• There is a sense in which all engineering is
  environmental engineering, because engineering is
  fundamentally about conversion of resources into
  artifacts.
• (D Thom, FICE, 2000)

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Example Our current impact reflects varying
levels of Affluence and Technologies
India, Mumbai - hand excavation for first sewers
Hongkong - highly mechanised underground sewage
treatment
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Predicting global impact - systems modeling with
World3
Global systems modeling by MIT in 1970
updated, U of New Hampshire in 1991
re-calibrated over 1970-1990 events (Beyond
the Limits, 1998)

• Used 9 interconnected systems ve and -ve
  feedback loops
• persistent pollution
• non-renewable resources
• population
• food production
• land fertility
• land development loss
• industrial output
• services input
• jobs
• Ran 13 scenarios, 1900 to 2100

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Our environmental/economic system - the possible
outcomes
Continuous growth impossible, in a finite
world Controlled approach to equilibrium the
ideal - sustainability - but can we manage
it? Overshoot and oscillation still
sustainability eventually, but a much rougher
journey Overshoot and collapse to be avoided!
(From Beyond the Limits, 1998)
Lets look at scenarios...
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Scenario 1 the Standard Run
(From Beyond the Limits, 1998)

• Assumptions
• continue historical path as long as possible -
  no major change
• growth continues until environmental and
  resource constraints finally limit it
• Results
• irreversible environmental changes occur
• investment capital depreciates faster than it
  can be re-built
• as it falls, food and health services fall too
• death rates increase and life expectancy reduces

Your lifetime
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Example irreversible environmental change

• The Greenhouse effect global warming -
  irreversible - in a human lifetime at least
• Rising CO2 Concentrations Temperatures
• We are just beginning to think about slowing
  temperature rise and climate change by CO2
  release reduction
• But inevitable consequences are already becoming
  apparent (S.2, 5)

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So - can we improve resources Technology - by a
Factor 4 - or 10?

• Energy efficiency
• The whole economy is less than 10 as
  energy-efficient as the laws of physics permit
• Materials efficiency
• It has been estimated that only 6 of its vast
  flows of materials end up in products
• (From Natural Capitalism - Hawken, Lovins
  Lovins, 1999)
• And - using renewable resourcesso engineers have
  plenty of scope(S.2,3,5)

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Scenario 6 all - technical solutions

• Assumptions (from 1995)
• doubled resources at start
• pollution control eff. 3 pa
• land productivity 2 pa
• reduce land erosion by 3x
• industrial resources eff. 3 pa
• Results
• population growth continues with food supplies
  just maintained
• growth in quality of life still stops and
  declines from 2020, but more slowly because.
• in the end, we cannot afford the combined cost
  of the technologies needed to provide it

Your lifetime
Not good enough, yet?
(From Beyond the Limits, 1998)
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Feedback, please, in Groups - What will be the
impact of your Year 4 projects?

• The I P x A x T equationand your 4th year
  project
• what part of world P is it for - which tier?
• What will its impact be on A - material
  consumption?
• What relative level of resource efficiency - T
  does it have?

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Introduction to sustainable development

• Course Overview
• Sustainable Development the issues debate
• Update from Johannesburg
• The social dimension
• The environmental dimension
• What is enough?
• Challenges to change

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What about the Affluence and the Population? Are
lower P and A possible?

• Material goods - more than enough? Quality of
  life (security, love, health, education, work,
  community, environmental quality) - not enough?
• So - measurement by GNP/cap (consumption of
  materials and consumables) - not the same as
  quality of life?
• We can gain a fair quality of life - enough
  - at a lower level of materials consumption?
• Keralas rate of increase in population is
  half that of India as a whole - they educated the
  women!

Indicator Kerala India USA GNP 298
330 22240per cap.(US) Adult 91 52
96literacy () Life 70 60
76expectancy (yrs) Infant 17 85
9Mortality(per 1000)

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How much is enough? - satisfying Maslows
needs

• only basic material needs really require
  consumption (A Affluence with a high T
  Technology input)
• some of our material consumption is a substitute
  for un-satisfied non-material needs?

(Demiproject - http//212.100.225.10185/)
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Manfred Max-Neefs version of human needs
They really run in parallel - not as a
hierarchy with material needs satisfied
completely first
(Manfred Max Neef (1987) Human Scale Development
an Option for the Future)
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Serving Needs, or Quality of Life, or Wants?

• Traditional cultures, having more limited means
  to satisfy human needs, tend to meet as many
  needs as possible with as few resources as
  possible.
• In contrast, industrial capitalism emphasises the
  creation of specialised products that fight for
  market niches to fill needs that, as often as
  not, cannot be satisfied by material goods.
  
  (Natural Capitalism, Ch. 14)

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Scenario 10 accept having enough?

• Assumptions (from 1995)
• P - population 2 children per family
• A -affluence enough is 350 per cap
  industrial output ( S. Korea, or 2 x Brazil, in
  1990)
• T - technology as Scenario 6 2 x resources
  same improvements in technologies - started when
  needed
• Results until at least 2100
• Population stabilises at 7.7B, with
• comfortable standard of living,
• high life expectancy and
• declining pollution

Your lifetime
(From Beyond the Limits, 1998)
So - we know where we need to aim for - but what
are the challenges?
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Introduction to sustainable development

• Course Overview
• Sustainable Development the issues debate
• Update from Johannesburg
• The social dimension
• The environmental dimension
• What is enough?
• Challenges to change

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Challenges to make development sustainable

• 1. Defining progress to sustainability better
  indicators and sustainability measurements to
  drive better choices
• 2. Dealing with economic market-technology
  failure learning why market economics and
  technology do not interact fast enough to produce
  sustainability - and changing the signals
• 3. Addressing the harder social dimension
  including social components in projects social
  objectives for products and projects consulting
  properly with local communities
• 4. Understanding and engaging with real world
  complex systems changing our world view to
  understand complex interactions and feedback
  loops, and changing to adopt the precautionary
  principle
• 5. Differences in timescales bridging the gap
  between typical political and commercial
  timescales and the long view of sustainability

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2. Dealing with economic- technology market
failure
Negative feedback loops ought to send the right
controlling signals?

• They dont work - or nor fast enough - because
• commercial objectives are to control the market,
  not to free it up
• financial return time-scales are far too short

• technologys first response is to dig deeper
  into marginal resources
• exponential growth goes on shortening the time
  for effective action
• so environmental signs of collapse come too
  late to avoid it
• successfully delaying limits, in a global free
  trade economy, means you hit many at once -
  you run out of the ability to cope

So - political and regulatory intervention is
needed, as well
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2. Sustainable local solutions may not meet
commercial objectives

• Our roofs are a large under-used resource
  
• I could fit solar PV roof tiles, and generate
  100 of my electricity needs 10 - 20k per
  house
• I could fit rainwater collection and treatment,
  and supply 25 - 75? of my water needs... 1-2k
  per house

• But current large, privatised utility commercial
  structures hinder it
• - power companies have to buy your excess power
  - and accept loss of income from your custom
• - water companies have to accept less income
  from customers

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3. Why including the social dimension is hard...

• It requires defining and measuring soft
  qualities that we have not defined and measured
  in the past (which perhaps is why we are losing
  them?)
• It will often demand decentralisation -
  challenging the (inevitable?) economic trends of
  globalisation - issues of inequality, power,
  ownership, scale - and even growth...
• It challenges our engineers training and
  preference for large, complex, interesting, new,
  engineering which is hard to change

57
5. Differences in timescales

• typical political interest and commercial
  decision timescales are 3 - 10 years maximum
• infrastructure working lives, lifetimes, and
  timescales for environmental damage are factors
  of 10 larger
• sustainability requires decision-makers to take
  the longer view
• are not engineers well placed to understand, and
  bridge, the gap?

58
Introduction to Sustainable Development - Summary
issues and questions

• The debate over where we are now, and where we
  are heading - where do you stand?
• Three elements of SD - environment, which
  nurtures society, which invented the economy
• The social and environmental dimensions, and how
  we get a balance with economics - easier and
  harder questions
• The World3 model, and what is enough? Do we
  need less material consumption, to avoid
  collapse?
• Challenges to change - and what is the
  engineers role in this - leader, or follower?

59
Feedback, please, in Groups - High Level
Questions...

• Q1.How much inequality is sustainable - what
  development is needed?
• Q2. How much development is sustainable,
  environmentally?
• Q3. What is enough consumption?

60
Ending - Coursework Assignments

• Coursework Assignment 1 SD and Engineering
• Essay response covering the whole course, but
  OUT NOW
• Due back start of next term (after feedback from
  last year)
• But - needs your attention at every Session,
  please
• Coursework Assignment 2 Energy Strategy
• Will be issued end of Session 2 - 22 October
• Return to me end of Session 4 - 5 November
• Marked, back to you end of Session 6 - 19
  November
• Coursework Assignment 3 Impact of Superquarry
• Will be issued end of Session 4 - 5 November
• Return to me end of Session 7 - 26 November
• Marked, back to you end of term - 3 4 December

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Coursework 1 - How Sustainable Development
Affects My Field of Engineering

• You have recently joined an engineering
  organisation as a graduate. Your employer is
  aware that you studied sustainable development at
  Cambridge University and is eager to benefit from
  your knowledge in this field. As part of your
  induction, you are required to summarise your
  understanding and views on how sustainable
  development affects your chosen field of
  engineering. You should focus on how sustainable
  development is relevant to the activities of your
  stated organisation, and the issues of the need
  for change within the discipline and how these
  may be brought about. You must also draw
  attention to commercial barriers and influences
  to implementation of your suggestions, and how
  these may be overcome.
• Your report will be based on the 4M14 sessions,
  and you should attach the completed session
  summary forms for each lecture in which you
  participated, but you should also draw on other
  areas of your knowledge. You should address the
  higher-level key questions prompted on the
  summary sheets and consider the wider aspects of
  the subject rather than just the application of
  technology.
• The report should be 2000-3000 words. It must be
  received at the Cambridge University Engineering
  Department Centre for Sustainable Development no
  later than 4pm on Friday 15th March 2002.
• If you have any problems with this assignment,
  including meeting the deadline, please contact
  Heather Cruickshank at hjc34_at_eng.cam.ac.uk as
  soon as possible.

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Next Session 2 - 22nd October Energy and
Climate Change

• Global Demand history global variations
  future demand
• Impact Climate Change
• Technical and commercial options.
• Sustainable Energy energy efficiency and
  renewables for the next generation.
• Are you coming?

CO2 at Mauna Loa, Hawaii
63
END of Session 1

• I recommend two economics books, as a way of
  providing some of the economic inputs that you
  may not have come across, and I am not including
• Butterfly Economics Paul Omerod. Faber and
  Faber, 1998
• - ISBN 0-571-19005-7 - the effect of real
  individual behaviour
• Steady State Economics, 2nd Ed Herman Daly.
  Earthscan, 1992. ISBN 1-85383-140-9 (particularly
  Chapters 12 -17) - economics within a finite
  environment