LArTPC Detector Costs

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LArTPC Detector Costs

• Context
• History
• Next (perhaps) steps

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ContextMaking the Ultimate Step for Large
Liquid Argon TPC Detectors

• What is the penultimate step?

David Finley to LArTPC Group Meeting Fermilab
June 12, 2006
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(No Transcript)
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The Ultimate Step

• Assumptions for beginning the ultimate step
• A timely, cutting edge physics justification
• Examples may be Neutrino oscillations, proton
  decay, neutrinoless double beta decay,
  supernovae, etc
• A project for a 50 to 100 kton TPC liquid argon
  detector
• An international collaboration that agrees
  detectors will be in one or more of these
  locations
• Under rock/dirt in Italy
• Under rock/dirt in the Western US
• On the surface in the NuMI beam (or anywhere else
  on the planet)

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The Penultimate Step

• Making the penultimate step assumes completion
  of
• A compelling physics case for the ultimate step
• In the context of a globally coordinated neutrino
  physics program, which in turn requires
• A functional international collaboration in place
  with possible, but unapproved, funding sources
  for the ultimate detector, and
• A physics case for the penultimate step would be
  a BIG bonus
• A credible schedule, which requires (see next
  slide)
• A credible cost estimate, which requires (see
  next slide)
• A compelling demonstration of the
  engineering/technology and the experimental
  physics capability for the ultimate detector,
  probably with the construction and operation of a
  penultimate detector as well as the physics
  analysis of data provided by it.

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The Penultimate Step

• Making the penultimate step requires completion
  of
• A compelling physics case for the ultimate step
  (see previous slide)
• A credible schedule, which requires
• Time for peer reviews, lab reviews, and
  government approvals
• Completion of RD for the engineering/technology
  and physics capability required for the ultimate
  detector
• Time for construction and operation of the
  ultimate detector
• A credible cost estimate, which requires
• A technical design to accomplish the physics
• A credible schedule (see above)
• Engineers and project management techniques
• A compelling demonstration (see previous slide)

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Penultimate thoughts from Hans

• Thanks, David.
• Very well said.
•  
• Unfortunately I did not receive your last slide
  which must say something like
•  
• "The Penultimate Detector
• Requires
• --finding a physics justification for a (1 to 3
  kton ?) detector
• --implies defining the location, rates, physics
  expectation
• --A credible schedule
• --A credible cost estimate
• -- A credible collaboration"
•  
• Hans
• email to lar_at_fnal June 8, 2006
•  

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Now for costs

• A credible cost estimate which requires
• A technical design to accomplish the physics
• A credible schedule
• Engineers and project management techniques
• And the cost estimate will be used to
• Identify large costs (and cost uncertainties)
  which might be reduced by
• technical RD including more detailed engineering
  designs or
• getting information which is closer to firm
  quotes from vendors
• Increase costs to reduce risk or improve
  technical performance or to advance/stretch the
  schedule (for whatever reasons)
• Identify all tasks (i.e., costs) by using a WBS
  (see later slide)
• Compare to other techniques and approaches (e.g.
  Water Cherenkov, surface vs. below ground, etc.)

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History What has been done?

• ICARUS
• Rumored cost is 20M for 1.2 kton
• Math gives 17M/kton or 830M/50 kton
• And math gives a factor of ten cheaper would be
  83M/50kton
• This is an experienced based cost estimate.

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History What has been done?

• ICARUS
• Rumored cost is 20M for 1.2 kton
• Math gives 17M/kton or 830M/50 kton
• And math gives a factor of ten cheaper would be
  83M/50kton
• This is an experienced based cost estimate.
• LArTPC NuSAG submission
• 57.45M for 15 kton
• Math gives 3.8M/kton or 190M/50kton
• This is not an experienced based cost estimate.
• NuSAG response
• See next slide

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NuSAG February 28, 2006
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NuSAG Submission Costs
15 kton
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50 kton estimate
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50 kton estimate
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50 kton estimate
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NuSAG LArTPC Cost Pie
15 kton
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End of History WBS here

• See docdb 166

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Schedule

• The LArTPC schedule in the NuSAG submission
  allowed our Director a moment of levity.
• The DOE approval process was not included.

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Schedule in NuSAG Submission
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Next (perhaps) cost steps - 1

• Methodology and archeology
• Include project management items so that the
  Directorate can compare LArTPC costs to other
  DOE-costed competitors for the funds.
• Get ICARUS costs directly from INFN
• and relate Italian cost accounting to DOE cost
  accounting
• so one can better specify what NuSAG meant by
  about an order of magnitude less
• OR NOT because why is a relative cost
  improvement relevant?
• Is it not the TOTAL cost to various taxpayers
  that is important?

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Next (perhaps) cost steps - 2

• What does cost mean? Does it mean
• DOE defensible or
• Engineering credible or
• Just more physicist scaling?
• Or some combination?
• Specific design choices
• 3 kton three 15 kton ten 3 kton 50 kton
• what else? and what experimental requirements
  drive these choices?

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Next (perhaps) cost steps - 3

• Next on the hit list for cost
• Is it not obvious that there are added costs for
  the many small approach?
• More argon (see next slide) and more steel.
• And what exactly does fiducial volume mean
  anyway?
• And what does the increased cost buy?
• Reduction in risk by having shorter wires how
  short is short enough?
• Obvious control of systematics
• similar to Braidwood Reactor Neutrino design with
  multiple detectors
• how well does a single large detector control
  systematics?
• Staging

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All the argon will be bought, but how much is
used for physics?
From Pushka Spring 2005
Radiation length is 14cm
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Next (perhaps) cost steps - 4

• The 3 kton penultimate PHYSICS detector needs
  its TPC specified
• Strike a balance between engineering
  demonstration for the ultimate detector and
  reducing risk to the physics experiment
• This may be harder to do than it may seem.
• All credible costs require Engineering support
  from PPD.
• Is this actually true? Can the engineering not
  be bought? with US dollars and/or with Euros?

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Todays Final Ultimate Questions

• Is there any chance at all that
  Europe/INFN/Japan/Asia/et al would cost share
  on the Ultimate Detector in the US?
• Or will three different detectors, one in each
  region, be the obvious thing to do because
• ultimate LArTPCs will become the obvious
  detector for several obvious physics
  experiments
• for less than (a mere) 0.5B each
• over the next 20 years or so?