Bioenergy: LargeScale Production and Climate Change Implications

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Bioenergy Large-Scale Production and Climate
Change Implications

• Jerome Weingart and Judy Siegel
• Energy and Security Group
• Reston, Virginia (USA)

International Conference on Sustainable
Bioenergy Bonn, Germany ? October 12-13, 2006
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Focus of presentation

• Principal climate impact areas large-scale
  biomass production and use for energy
• Research and analysis necessary to understand
  these impacts
• Case example potential of liquid biofuels to
  offset GHG emissions in the road transport sector
  of developing Asia (excludes Japan, S. Korea,
  Singapore).

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Constraints Biofuels Production and Use

• Environmental impacts (land conversion)
• Tropical forest replacement by monocrops
• Deforestation
• Diminished ecological diversity and resilience
  destruction of wildlife habitat
• Nutrient leaching
• Pollution from chemicals
• Loss of watersheds
• Soil erosion, mud slides, and forest fires
• Need to protect soil productivity, water quality,
  and other ecosystem services (WRI)

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Constraints Biofuels Production and Use

• Potential competition for food production
• Availability of suitable land

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Land required for long-term global biofuels
feedstock production (10 substitution)
IEA (2004) Automotive Fuels for the Future (pp
75-76)
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Biofuels from field to wheels monocropping,
diversity reduction, and destruction of habitat
Oil palm plantation
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Climate Change Issues

• Climate system impacts through altered land use
  and massive cultivation (including water use)
• Altered surface roughness
• Altered evapotranspiration rates
• Altered surface albedo
• Nitrogen oxides methane from agriculture
• (others) For panel discussion today

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Biofuels Climate Benefits

• GHG emissions displacement
• Improved air quality (tailpipe emissions
  reductions)
• Reclamation of degraded land (e.g. via Jatropha)
• Reduction of sand storms and atmospheric dust
• Slowing of desertification (eventual reversal?)

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Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Asia Vehicle
Transport Sector
Scenarios for market penetration of low-GHG
biofuels
J. Weingart (2006). Analysis for the Asian
Development Bank
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Global GHG Emissions from Energy
World Resources Institute (2005). Navigating
the Numbers
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Global GHG Emissions from Transport
World Resources Institute (2005). Navigating
the Numbers
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Road fuels global production in 2005
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IEA/SMP International Energy Agency /
Sustainable Mobility Project
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China from this, to
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this, and to
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This!
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The future (?) 6-fold GHG emissions growth from
Asia road transport
Reference case (from IEA/SMP model)
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Why are we interested in biofuels for the Asian
road transport sector?

• Potentially competitive with petrofuels
• Indigenous, can offset imported petroleum
• Significant reduction in tailpipe emissions
• Potential for major reduction (80 95) in net
  unit life-cycle GHG emissions compared with
  petrofuels, and
• Potential for large-scale sustainable production
  (perhaps)

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What is a scenario?

• A scenario is like a screen play for the future.
  
• A scenario is NOT a prediction it asks what
  if, using rules that reflect real world market
  dynamics and constraints

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What is a market penetration scenario?

• Model of a possible future
• Analytic logistic penetration model for
  increasing market share of an intruder into an
  incumbent market (S-shaped curve)
• Permits specification of key parameters to assess
  impacts of alternative penetration rates and
  ultimate market fraction for new options

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Stages of market penetration
Illustrative phases of market development
Maturation
Market dynamism
Takeoff
Expansion
Prototype
Pioneering
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Two illustrative scenarios biofuels penetration
of road fuel markets in Asia

• 10 to 90 penetration in 50 years
• Logistic (S-shaped) penetration
• Extreme biofuels market penetration S1
• Potential market 50 road fuels
• 75 lower associated GHG emissions
• Ultimate biofuels market penetration S2
• Potential market 100 road fuels
• 90 lower associated GHG emissions

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GHG Emissions Impacts of Biofuels
Field-to-wheel CO2-equivalent GHG emissions from
biofuels, per km, relative to base fuel
Source L. Fulton (2004), IEA (currently at UNEP
Nairobi)
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Asia road transport GHG emissions with and
without accelerated biofuels penetration S1
Business as usual GHG emissions
Biofuels and reduced GHG emissions
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Asia road transport GHG emissions with and
without extreme biofuels penetration S2
Business as usual GHG emissions
High biofuels penetration GHG emissions
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How to maximize biofuels offsets of GHG emissions

• Reduce growth in transport fuel demand
• Increased end use efficiency is much less
  expensive than expanding supply
• This is the golden rule for renewables

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Potential next steps

• Consistent life-cycle analysis for large-scale
  bio-ethanol and biodiesel production/use
  (platform for climate impact analysis and
  assessment)
• Collaboration among national biofuels working
  groups using compatible LCA and environmental
  impact methodologies
• Establishment of biofuels collaboratives for
  collaboration, coordination, technical
  assistance, and knowledge management

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New Bioenergy Center (Washington, DC)

• International NGO Renew the Earth has established
  a bioenergy center
• Purposes include
• Bioenergy information clearinghouse
• Analysis of alternative bioenergy options
• Assessment of bioenergy sustainability
  requirements and opportunities

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For more information

• Judy Siegel
• judy_at_energyandsecurity.com
• Jerome Weingart
• jmweingart_at_aol.com

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