Title: National Conference
1Gulf Coast Bank Symposium
- National Conference
- April 30, 2007
Dr. Loren C. Scott Loren C. Scott Associates,
Inc. www.lorencscottassociates.com
2Post Katrina/Rita
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4How to create 50,000 jobs without really trying!
- Amazing revisions in March!
- Unable to contact by phone 0.
- New firms entered not on survey list, show up
when file unemployment comp report
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6Why so slow? Housing, Housing, Housing
- Sheer size 181,966 rendered uninhabitable
- Flood waters
- Homeowners insurance no Flood insurance yes
- Limits on flood insurance coverage
- No flood insurance? 74!
- New base flood elevation level April 2006!
7Why so slow? Housing, Housing, Housing
- Road Home program delays
- MS-LA split
- Governor/Legislature design program June!
- Hire firm to administer
- 1st checks October! (Only 6,969 issued by end of
4/9/07) - Administrative style of Governors
8Big question
- Which of 3 decisions will homeowners make with
Road Home money?
9As of 1/8/07
- Applications received 95,944
- Option 1 64,480 67.8
- Option 2 11,216 11.8
- Option 3 1,438 1.5
- Undecided 12,573 13.2
- No info available 5,437 5.7
10As of 1/8/07
- Orl. St.B. Jeff.
- Option 1 30,160 4,819 10,677
- Option 2 3,835 4,284 511
- Option 3 752 425 71
- Undecided 5,549 2,494 788
- No info available 742 185 323
11Barriers to Rebuild
- Getting Road Home monies
- Getting home repaired
- Utility rates
- Entergy NO
- 534 miles low pressure lines
- 310 miles high pressure lines
- All electric power grid repairs
- 626 mm (200mm from LRA)
- Water company
- Produce 130 mm gallons per day bill out 90 mm.
- Homeowners insurance
- 250k home in Belle Chase - 7,688 annually
- 145k in Gentily - 4,300 annually
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13Major Construction Ahead
- Over 1 billion on bridges
- 806 mm new, 6-lane twin span over Ponchartrain
- 660 mm to widen Huey P. Long Bridge
- 1.2 billion for debris removal
- 1 billion a year next 4 years for Corps levee
projects - 7.5 billion fed s to rebuild homes
- Entergy Little Gypsy Retrofit 1 billion
- Two large refinery projects
- Marathon (from 2 billion to 3.2 bill)
- Valero Norco 400 mm
- Hyatt Jazzland Center 715 mm (On hold)
14Major Construction Ahead
- Ten large condo projects, ranging in size from 88
350 units (some saying no now) - Trump Tower 842 feet tall, 200 mm
- 160 mm remake of World Trade Center
- 282 mm expansion of D-Day Museum (300 mm)
- VA/Charity Hospital 1.2 billion?
- Pinnacle 145 mm for Boomtown
- 314.9 mm expansion of Convention Center (no now)
-
15The Great Challenge(Aside from Housing)
- Convention Market
- Down from 524,000 (Fall 04) to about 197,000
(Fall 06) - Convention Center expansion on hold
- Six Flags reopening? Official website says no.
- Carnival Cruise Lines delaying 2nd ship
- Fairmont Hyatt still off line
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17Two hearse funeral
18Lake Charles The Rita MSA
19Impact Katrina/Rita on Housing
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21Lake Charles Post-Rita
- All public schools open
- All hospitals open
- Airport enplanements 11.6
- Lost two casinos
- Harrahs sells both to Pinnacle
- Pinnacle to spend 350 mm on Sugarcane Bay
- Move other boat NO or BTR
- All but three hotels back open
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23Saying things clearly?
24Difficult to Say When Drunk
- Indubitably
- Preliminary
- Proliferation
25Very Difficult to Say When Drunk
- Specificity
- Antidisestablishmentarianism
- Loquacious
- Transubstantiate
26Downright Impossible to Say When Drunk
- Thanks, but I dont want to have sex.
- Sorry, but youre not really my type
- No, I just couldnt. No one wants to hear me sing.
27Baton Rouge MSA Post Katrina/Rita
28Post-Katrina Impacts Baton Rouge MSA
- Evacuees in
- MSA population increased 248,386 (34) overnight
- BTR Parish sales tax collections 34 in
September) - Median family home price 27
- Largest among 151 MSAs in country
- Traffic city!
- Evacuees out
- Population Oct. 05 14.9 July 06 5.3
(Claritas Inc.) - Traffic count
- I-12 near split Nov. 05 22 Now 3.1
- I-10 MS Bridge Nov.05 26 Now 2.9
29Population Change Katrina/Rita to 6/06
- EBR 19,264 4.7
- Asc 6,882 7.6
- Liv. 5,847 5.4
- Orl. -228,782 -50.6
- St. Ber. -49,633 -76.2
- Jeff -19,688 -4.4
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31Katrina Effects
- Biloxi-Gulfport
- Pascagoula MSAs
32Impacts of Katrina on Housing in Mississippi And
the Biloxi-Gulfport MSA
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35Biloxi-Gulfport MSA Casino Recovery Track
36Biloxi-Gulfport Casino Future
- Ten now open
- 13,000 employees (v. 16,000 pre-Katrina)
- Revenues back to pre-Katrina levels
- Hard Rock to reopen summer 07 (1,300)
- More planned
- Bacaran Bay 500 mm resort (fall 2008)
- Broadwater 1 billion
- Golden Nugget purchased land near Point Cadet
- Isle of Capri 250-300 mm western Harrison
County. - Trump 40 acres near Diamondhead
- West DIberville 250 mm project
- Bayview Ventures Biloxi Back Bay area
37Hotels Biloxi-Gulfport
- Pre-Katrina 14,880 rooms
- December 2005 4,044 rooms
- December 2006 8,239 rooms
- 55.4 pre-Katrina
38Other Biloxi-Gulfport Economic Indicators
- By November 15th all seven hospitals operating at
full service - All public schools reopened by November 1st
- Harrison County enrollments down 16.6
- Hancock County enrollments down 16.2
- Port of Gulfport
- Tonnage at 64.7 of pre-Katrina
- Airport down 72 initially now all back
39Post Katrina/Rita
40Impacts of Katrina on Housing in Mississippi And
the Pascagoula MSA
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44Pascagoula Manufacturing
- Of 16,500 jobs pre-Katrina, 13,000 were at
Ingalls - Sustained 1 billion in damages
- Salt water damage to vehicles, man-lifts, and
machinery on site. - New 2.49 billion Navy contract!
45Other PascagoulaEconomic Indicators
- By September 5th all three hospitals operating
- All public schools reopened by October 3rd
(enrollments down 10) - Hotel rooms
- 2,654 pre-Katrina
- 2,470 post-Katrina (93.1)
- Port of Pascagoula Back to 100 of pre-Katrina
capacity
46MS Positives
- SeverCorr Steel Mill
- 880 mm investment completed
- 450 jobs Tier Is IIs???(07-III)
- Northrop Grumman Ingalls 1,000?
- New Toyota plant Blue Springs
- 1.522 billion investment
- 2,000 new jobs Tier Is IIs??? (late 2008)
- More casinos
- Gulf Coast Natchez
- Ergon-Bunge Vicksburg
- 100 mm investment
- Largest ethanol plant in Southeast
47MS Positives
- ACCO Brands Boonville
- 55 mm investment
- 330 new jobs
- Capital City Convention Center Jackson
- 65 mm investment
- 700 jobs
- Two LNG terminals near Pascagoula
- New SPR facility near Richton
- 1.0 to 1.5 billion
- American Eurocopter Lowndes 130 jobs
48MS PositivesCoastal Rebuild
- 5 bill in Community Development Block Grants
- Hurricane Katrina Homeowner grant program
- Phase I
- Grants up to 150,000
- Residents with homeowners insurance, located
outside flood plain, flooded by Katrina - Rebuild to International Residential Building
Code, Advisory Base Flood Elevation maps,
maintain flood insurance
49MS PositivesCoastal Rebuild
- Hurricane Katrina Homeowner grant program
- Phase II
- Subsidy up to 50,000
- 7,000-10,000 moderate income homeowners (under
120 of area median income) - Homes damaged by storm surge but not eligible for
Phase I - Available if choose to sell damaged property
relocate within lower 6 counties - 100 mm to public housing
- 125 mm to owners of 10 or fewer rental units
- 35 mm to encourage construction of rental
property
50MS Negatives
- Closure Sara Lee slaughter/processing facility
-1,220 jobs - La-Z-Boy closures -400 jobs
- Oreck closure -450 jobs
- Closure Pascagoula Naval Station
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52Arkansas
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54Arkansas Positives
- Fayetteville area hot
- Walmart vendor additions---both national
international - Strong service sector growth
- Population increasing 1,200 a month
- Fayetteville Shale
- North of I-40
- Quadrupled rig count
- Alberto Culver Hair products Jonesboro (400
jobs) - Nestle and Frito Lay (200 jobs)
- Health Care expansions especially in Little
Rock - Baldor Electric 100 jobs
55Arkansas Negatives
- Appliance sector shrinking
- Maytag closure (-800)
- Whirlpool moving more to MX (-900)
- Weakness in forestry sector due to housing
slowdown - Poultry struggling with high feed fuel costs
- Missed out on
- ThyssenKrupp
- Toyota
- Hino Truck manufacturing
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58Alabama
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61Alabama Positives
- BRAC
- Movement of Army Material Command, Space
Missile Defense Command, part of Missile
Defense Agency to Huntsville Net about 4,000
military civilian jobs - Anniston Army Depot 350 jobs
- Verizon HQ call center to Huntsville 1,300
jobs - Trinity Glass Distribution Center - Birmingham
400 - 500 mm Kronospan plant Anniston 700
- Alpha Institute of Biotechnology Huntsville
500-600
62Alabama Positives
- Furnival Cabinetry Mobile 800??
- Several new or expanding Tier I and Tier II auto
suppliers - Daewon America,Nikki American Fuel Systems,
Cylpro Automotive, GMB Automotive, Hoerbiger
Weidmann, etc., etc. - Austal Shipbuilding Mobile 250
63Significant Alabama Job Losses
- 10 bill merger of Regions/AmSouth Birmingham
-3,700 over 2007-08 - Delphi Huntsville -1,335
- BF Goodrich Auburn -400
- WestPoint Homes Auburn -325
- Shoal Creek Mine Birmingham -455
64Alabama Potentials
- ThyssenKrupp steel mill
- 2,900 permanent jobs
- Between Mobile and South Louisiana
- Know May 11th??
- EADS/Northrop Grumman bid to build new fleet of
aerial refueling tankers in Mobile 1,000 jobs
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66Florida Panhandle
- Military Tourism/Retirement
67Fort Walton-Destin MSA
- BRAC impact less than thought
- Joint Strike Fighter coming
- Offset by loss of F-15 training unit (a wash)
- F-15 leaves before JSF comes in
- Still getting Army Rangers from Fort Bragg
- Net gain less than 6,500 projected
- Plus, down before up
- But military construction now 700 mm rather than
300 mm.
68Fort Walton-Destin MSA
- Retiree flow in wake of hurricanes slowing down
- Okaloosa County population change
- July 00 July 05 6
- July 05 July 06 -0.5
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70Pensacola MSA
- BRAC losses
- Early projections -1,600
- Now -800 to 1,000
- Retiree flow in wake of hurricanes slowing down
- Escambia County population change
- July 00 July 05 0.4
- July 05 July 06 -0.1
- Santa Rosa County
- July 00 July 05 20.2 (14th in state-small
base) - July 05 July 06 1.5 (35th in state)
- Naval Federal Credit Union call center Rising
fro 700 to 2,000
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72Panama City MSA
- BRAC losses
- Tyndall AFB tiny
- Naval Support Station Tiny
- Retiree flow in wake of hurricanes Not as bad as
Pensacola or Ft. Walton-Destin - Bay County population change
- July 00 July 05 8.8
- July 05 July 06 1.4
- New airport under construction
- Open 2009
- Two industrial/commerce parks attached
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74Tallahassee MSA
- Government big
- Government of employment
- Tallahassee 21.5
- Florida 14.5
- U.S 16.6
- Florida State U 29,820
- Florida AM 16,000-17,000
- Tallahassee Com. College 13,000
- State Capital
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76Gulf Coast Bank Symposium
- National Conference
- April 30, 2007
Dr. Loren C. Scott Loren C. Scott Associates,
Inc. www.lorencscottassociates.com