Jesse Jenkins RNP

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Northwest Energy A Look at the Past, Present
and Future of Electricity Generation in the
Pacific Northwest
Jesse Jenkins (RNP) November 7th, 2006
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Overview

• Introduction
• Past where were coming from
• II. Present where were at
• III. Future where do we want to go?
• IV. Conclusions

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I. Introduction

• Me
• recent UO graduate (class of 06)
• now work for the Renewable Northwest Project in
  Portland (policy research associate)
• Renewable Northwest Project (RNP)
• founded in 1994
• unique coalition of, consultants, developers,
  consumer environmental groups, etc.
• seek responsible development of renewable
  energy in the Pacific Northwest.

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II. The Past a Brief History of Northwest
Electricity Generation
Growth met with new NG - 1990s-2000s
Growth met with new Coal - 1970s-90s
False start with Nukes - 1970s-80s
Energy Conservation! (NW Power Act - 1980)
Growth met with new Hydro - 1890s-1970s
Date source NW Power and Conservation Council
(http//www.nwcouncil.org/energy/powersupply/exist
ingprojects.xls)
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II. The Present
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• - Abundant resources
• gt1,386 MW currently serving NW Load

Source RNP (http//www.rnp.org/Projects/projectli
st.php)
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III. The Future Demand Continues to Grow
?
Source NWPCC 5th Power Plan (vol. 2), p. 2-4
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III. The Future Coal?

• Coal
• Cheap
• Relatively abundant
• Dirty!
• Utilities love their coal
• cheap baseload (reliable) power
• (For the most part) dont have to pay for public
  health costs
• 150 coal plants proposed in the West

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Over 150 Coal-fired Power Plants Proposed in the
West
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III. The Future Coal Risky Business

• Coal is a risk for everyone
• cheap now, but fuel costs already rising
• up 20 from 03-05.
• Investments in coal now will cost customers
  later.
• Increasing environmental regulations
• Carbon restrictions coming soon
• Regional regulations CA and Northeast
• Industry asking Congress to limit carbon
  emissions - want certainty
• Only a matter of time now
• Invest in coal export NW jobs and to MT, WY
  for fuel
• Moral issue people in MT, WY bare environmental
  costs of mining and power plant pollution for our
  power consumption

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III. The Future Natural Gas?

• Natural Gas
• Low capital (upfront) costs
• High fuel costs
• Cleaner than coal
• Natural gas prices very volatile

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III. The Future Natural Gas?
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III. The Future Liquefied Natural Gas

• Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
• Imported from Indonesia, Qatar, Iran, Russia,
  etc.
• More dependence on foreign fossil fuels
• Exporting overseas
• Potential security risk (terminals and tankers)
• Several LNG terminals proposed for Northwest

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III. The Future Renewables?

• NW has abundant renewable energy potential
• Western Governors Association - developable
  potential by 2015
• Wind 2,310-7,735 MW (693-2,321
  aMW)
• Solar 325-500 MW (71.5-111 aMW)
• Geothermal 1,290 MW (1,187 aMW)
• Total 3,925-9,525 MW (1,951-3,617
  aMW)
• 72 of 5,000 aMW forecasted growth by 2025

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III. The Future Conservation Renewables
More than Enough

• Expected demand growth by 2025 5,000 aMW
• Conservation and Efficiency 2,800 aMW (NWPCC)
• Renewables 2,000-3,600 aMW (WGA)
• Total 4,800-6,400 aMW
• So who needs coal
• or natural gas?

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III. The Future Benefits of Renewables

• Provides power at stable, predictable price for
  many years
• (Fossil fuel prices volatile unpredictable.)
• Helps fight global warming no/low emissions,
  offsets fossil fuels
• Economic Development it creates jobs tax
  revenue
• Domestic resources Keep jobs and local
  instead of sending elsewhere to buy their fuels
  (e.g.. coal from WY, gas from Canada).

• Minimal water use
• Public Health Benefits Doesnt have air water
  pollution impacts of fossil fuels
• Customers want it PGE poll 75 customers want
  RE and efficiency, lt10 want coal.

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III. The Future So Where Do We Want to Go?

• Coal?
• Natural Gas?
• Conservation Renewables?
• Its our energy future what do we want it to
  look like?

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A Clean Energy Future is PossibleIts up to us
to make it happen!
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Policy Solutions

• Renewable Energy Standard / Renewable Portfolio
  Standard (RPS)
• Purpose
• have electric utilities gradually increase amount
  of new RE in electricity supply to certain by
  certain year.
• Gov. Kulongoski 25 by 2025 proposed for Oregon
• Washington ballot initiative (I-937) 15 by 2020
• Create a stable market for renewables, encourage
  siting of domestic manufacturing, create jobs,
  economic development, health benefits

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20 States Have RPS Policies
MT 15 by 2015
MN 1,125 MW wind by 2010 10 goal by 2015
ME 30 by 2000
RI 15 by 2020
WI 10 by 2015
MA 4 by 2009 1 annual increase
NY 24 by 2013
NV 20 by 2015
CT 10 by 2010
IA 105 MW
NJ 24 by 2021
CA20 by 2017 (2)
CO 10 by 2015
PA 18¹ by 2020
IL 8 by 2013
NM 10 by 2011
DE 10 by 2019
MD 7.5 by 2019
AZ 15 by 2025
DC 11 by 2022
TX 5880 MW by 2015
State RPS
HI 20 by 2020
Goal
Minimum requirement and/or increased credit for
solar ¹ PA 8 Tier I, 10 Tier II (includes
non-renewable sources) 2 CA 33 by 2020 under
review
Source Interstate Renewable Energy Council.
www.dsireusa.org, July 2006
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Policy Solutions

• Incentives
• Public health, energy security and economic
  development benefits of renewables all warrant
  incentives
• Federal Production Tax Credit is biggest factor
• State incentives too (OR and WA offer strong
  package of incentives)
• Environmental Regulations / Carbon Cap
• Stricter environmental regulations force
  polluters to pay
• Renewables have no emissions so more competitive
• Cost of carbon needs to be included (carbon cap
  or tax)