POS 203: Introduction to Political Science 10192006

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POS 203 Introduction to Political Science
10/19/2006

• Course status.
• Midterm Exam next Tuesday (10/24).
• Remember to bring blue book.
• Do not write in, or put name on, blue book prior
  to arrival in class.
• Paper Assignment 2 Expanded paper description
  assignment distributed Tuesday due October
  31st.
• Class Agenda
• Germany Follow-up.
• Presentation European Union.
• European Union.
• 2005 Elections Dutch Rejection of membership.
• 2004 Elections.
• .

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• WMD 203 Germany and Nuclear Weapons.
• Nuclear Information Project. 2006. Status .

3

• Germany and Nuclear Weapons.
• 1955 Germany (West) gives up right to develop WMD
  in order to join NATO.
• FAS German Special Weapons.
• US/NATO nuclear weapons based on German
  territory.
• Abolition 2000.
• Deutsche Welle 04/29/2005 Article re calls to
  remove 150 US nukes on German territory.
• Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization
  (CTBTO).
• IAEA
• World Map of Nuclear Research Reactors.
• International Nuclear Safety Center (US. ANL.)
• World Map of Nuclear Reactors.

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• Landman, Chapter 1.
• Reasons for comparison.
• Contextual.
• Classification.
• Hypothesis Testing.
• Prediction.
• Natural science/Political Science
  Experimentation, laws?
• Theory.
• Normative/empirical.
• Deductive/inductive.

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• Landman, Chapter 1 continued..
• Theory and Methods.
• Ontology, Epistemology, Methodology.
• Cases, units, variables, observations.
• Levels of analysis.
• Quantitative and Qualitative.
• Inferences.
• Landman, Chapter 2.
• Methods of Comparison.
• Small-n to Large n-studies.
• Single to multiple countries.
• Most Similar Systems Design.
• Most Different Systems Design.

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• Landman, Chap. 3.
• Choosing countries and problems of comparison.
• Too many variables and too few countries.
• Equivalence.
• Selection bias.
• Spuriousness.
• Ecological/individualist fallacies.
• Values bias.

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• Landman, Chapter 5 Violent Dissent and Social
  Revolution.
• Research problem
• Why do people rebel?
• Which sectors of society are more likely to
  rebel?
• What factors contribute to successful social
  revolution.
• Examination for the universal factors that
  account for political rebellion and political
  violence.
• Comparing many countries.
• Current example
• Gurr, Ted Robert and Monty G. Marshall. 2005.
  Peace and conflict, 2005 - A Global Survey of
  Armed Conflicts, Self-Determination Movements,
  and Democracy. Center for International
  Development and Conflict Management.
• Most recent update to project examining 161
  countries from 1950 until 2004.

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• Origins/Causes of Violence/Instability Income
  Inequality.
• Global Patterns.
• UN Human Development Report.
• HDR Data in Flash Animation.
• Gini Index Country Rankings.
• Regional Patterns.
• UN Human Development Index.
• HDR 2005 Data Flash (Section 6 Slide 10).
• OECD Patterns.
• OECD 2006 Factbook.
• Linkage to Landman 5.

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• Landman, Chapter 5d.

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• Landman, Chapter 5f.

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• Landman, Chapter 5c.

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• Landman, Chapter 5a.

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• Landman, Chapter 5b.

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• Landman, Chapter 5g.

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• Patterns of Repression. Davenport 2005a.

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• Patterns of Repression. Davenport 2005b.

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• France - Corsican Separatism.
• BBC Coverage, Sept. Oct. 2005.
• Chirac condemns.
• Deployment of French Troops.
• Tourists Stranded.
• Corsican Case Study.
• Corsica situation in "large-n" studies.
• Minorities at Risk Project - sponsored by CIDCM,
  University of Maryland.
• Assement of Situation of Corsican Minority in
  France.
• Corsica Nazione English language website.
• Profile of Fronte di Liberazione Naziunale di a
  Corsica (FLNC) from Terrorism Knowledge Base.
• Profile of Fronte di Liberazione Naziunale di a
  Corsica (FLNC) from Institute for
  Counter-Terrorism Israel.

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• Violence and Dissent in EU Al Qaeda in EU.
• EU Anti-terror Policy.
• EurActiv.
• London Bombings.
• Madrid Bombings.

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• European Union.
• October 2006.
• EU Constitution Dead?
• EU 2005 election.
• May French Rejection of EU Constitution.
• June Dutch Rejection of EU Constitution.
• Newshour Video covering rejection.
• Reasons for rejection, future of EU?
• European Union.
• European Union as of 2004 - 25 member states.
• Population now 455 million people.
• 50 Larger than United States.
• CNN International New Europe.
• Guardian UK European Union.
• European Integration.
• European Public Opinion Barometer.
• Eurobarometer. European Commission.

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European Union

• Post 2004 Election Survey.
• Very high abstention that prompts some to refer
  to a real democratic breakdown.
• Strong mobilization of Euroscepticism in certain
  Member States.
• Protest vote with regard to certain governments
  in national office.
• post-electoral survey
• 24,000 persons 18 and older were surveyed by
  telephone or face to face.
• Face to face in Poland, Czech Republic,
  Slovakia, Latvia and Lithuania
• Conducted one week after the European elections
  to reduce the likelihood of the respondents
  having forgotten certain aspects of the
  elections.
• Election of June 10-13, 2004 involved 360 million
  voters, 25 states, 732 members of European
  Parliament.

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Thinking About The EU

• Whats in a Name?
• European Economic Community (EEC)
• The Common Market
• The European Community (EC)
• The European Union (EU)
• Whos in, whos out?
• The New Europe
• Three Pillars
• Trade and economic issues
• Justice and home affairs
• Common foreign and security policy

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Thinking About The EU

• Key Questions
• How and why did the EU emerge?
• What is its political culture and how does it
  shape the way people participate in its political
  life?
• What are the main decision-making bodies?
• What are its critical public policy initiatives?
• How do the European people learn about and react
  to those policies?
• How will the EU and its institutions be affected
  by broadening and deepening?

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The Evolution of the EU

• Not such a new idea
• ECSC
• The High Authority
• A Special Council of Ministers
• A Court of Justice
• A Common Assembly
• The Treaty of Rome and the EEC
• The Commission
• The Council of Ministers
• European Parliament
• European Court of Justice
• Creating the Common Market
• Growth
• Common Agricultural Policy
• European Monetary System
• Council of Permanent Representatives (COREPRER)

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The Evolution of the EU

• The Single European Act
• The Maastricht Treaty
• The Treaty of Amsterdam
• The Treaty of Nice

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Popular Culture and Participation in the EU

• Few people identify themselves first as European.
• Key EU organizations are still superficial
• Democratic deficit
• Lack of common language

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The European State?

• The Commission
• The Council
• General Affairs Council
• European Council
• COREPRER
• Qualified voting majority

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The European State?

• The European Court of Justice
• Decisions have frequently made major expansion of
  the EUs authority possible
• Actions have limited national sovereignty in
  favor of the EUs institutions
• The European Parliament
• The EUs weakest institution
• Power has grown since direct election of members
• Codecision
• The right to approve all nominees to the
  Commission and can remove the entire Commission
  if a vote of censure passes by a two-thirds
  margin.
• The right to approve the budget

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The European State?

• The Complexities of EU Decision Making
• Policy making more complex and confusing because
  it has to reconcile interests of its 25 member
  states with those that transcend national
  boundaries and the institutions are greatly
  fragmented.
• Still being built

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The European State?

• Next Steps?
• Further broadening and deepening seem unlikely in
  the foreseeable future
• Criteria to join
• Establishment of a functioning and stable
  democratic regime
• Adoption of a market-oriented capitalist economy
• Acceptance of the acquis communautaire, the
  80,000 pages of laws and regulations already on
  the EUs books
• To be a United States of Europe, need
  commitment to a common foreign and security
  policy.

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The European State?

• The EU and National Sovereignty
• Can it supplant the state and the primary actor
  determining public policy and the broader ways in
  which people are governed?

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Public Policy in the EU

• The Internal Market
• The removal of tariffs and other barriers to
  trade
• Tremendous impact on both European governments
  and their citizens
• Monetary union
• The euro
• EMU gives the EU and its new central bank
  powerful levers they can exert over national
  governments

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Public Policy in the EU

• Common Agricultural Policy
• Took steps to modernize inefficient farms to be
  more competitive in the European market
• Established the EAFFF, giving farmers subsidies
  and guaranteeing the purchase of surplus goods at
  artificially high prices.
• Demonstrates how pressure put on member states
  can lead to policies that tend to impede a free
  market and also make the EU resistant to change.
• More recent reforms on the CAP have been forced
  on the EU by the GATT and the WTO.
• CAP will not be able to survive the 2004
  enlargement

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Feedback

• There is very little feedback because of the way
  the EU is structured and the way people
  participate (or dont) in it.
• People pay little attention to the politics and
  policies of the EU.
• Turnout in European elections is much lower than
  in national ones.
• Coverage in the press is spotty and concentrates
  on its problems.
• Difficult for average people to have much of an
  impact on decision making distance and
  disinterest.

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• Next Class October 24th.
• Midterm exam.
• Remember to bring a blue book.