Toekomst in het groot

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Towards sustainable agriculture
Louise O. Fresco
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Most Humans have been Hunters and Gatherers
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Agriculture as the basis for urban development,
art and science
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• Agriculture ishuman activities transforming
  solar energy at the earths surface into useful
  energy through plants and animals

Food chain from plant to plate
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Mixed Farming in the Middle Ages Duc de Berry
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Potatoes and Andean Tubers imported from the New
World after 1492
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Early Mechanisation
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Urbanisation Bombay 15-20 M Inhabitants
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• Human interventions agroecosystems
• Increasing control over nutrients, water and
  pathogens
• Substituting human and animal labour by power
• Area expansion versus Yield increases

• BUT HIGH ECOLOGICAL COSTS

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Environmental Damage Destruction of Rain Forest
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Environmental Damage Salinization
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• Water and Agriculture (2030)70 of All
  Renewable Water Resources used in Agriculture

• Increase Irrigated Area in Developing Countries
  by 34
• Only 14 more water to do so
• How is this possible?
• Changing food habits -gt increase water needs
• Efficiency (rice vs wheat 21 animal feed)
• Irrigation efficiency increases from 38 to 42
• Major regional differences
• In many countries gt 4 annual efficiency increase
  needed

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Can we feed 9 bn and fuel the economy
sustainably?
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New Technologies - Precision Agriculture
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New technologies - Tissue culture
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Biotechnology
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Closed System Agriculture
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Future challenges

• Globalisation, Labeling Consumers
• Improve Food Production and Quality (Animal
  Proteins and Horticulture)
• Novel Health Foods
• Climate Mitigation (CO2, CH4 fix)
• Ecosystems Management (Water, Biodiversity)
• Biofuels

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Protest during WTO Meetings in Hong Kong
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WTO Negotiations Geneva
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Agricultural Trade Negotiations
Continue

• Dramatic Increase in Trade Volume
• Volume of Agricultural Products Increase
• More Trade within Regions
• Reduction of Domestic Support to Agriculture and
  Export Subsidies
• Increased Market Access (Reduced Tariffs but
  Technical Barriers Remain)
• Trade Liberalisation Continues (Positive Effects
  on Consumers)
• Labeling (GMO and Fair Trade)

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Quality Control along the Food Chain
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Agriculture and Ecosystem Management .
Diversity .Hydrology .Landscape
Variety trial
Rice variations
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New Challenges Climate and Bio-energy
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Benefits of higher CO2
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Canola (Brassica spp)
Biofuel energy produced directly or indirectly
from biomass
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Sugarcane for Ethanol, Australia
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Figure 4. Biofuel Yields of Ethanol and Biodiesel
Feedstock
Source Fulton et al.
7000
6000
Ethanol Feedstock
Biodiesel Feedstock
5000
4000
Liters Per Hectare
3000
2000
1000
0
Barley
Wheat
Corn
Sugar
Sugar
Soybean
Castor
Sunflower
Rape-
Jatropha
Palmoil
Beet
Cane
Beans
Seed
seed
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• The Promise of Bio-energy

• Potential ¼-th 2 times current global primary
  energy requirements
• Short term vegetable oils and ethanol from
  sugar cane , wheat sugar beet (1st generation)
• Coming up cellulosic ethanol and synthetic
  diesel (Fisher Tropsch, BTL 2nd generation)
• allows for wider range of feedstock
• greater reduction in well to wheel CO2-emission
  per litre of fuel
• Key success factors
• costs of production and distribution
• Organisation of the value chain
• CSR issues (civilization in the value chain)
• Energy and GHG- balance
• Competition with food
• Bio-diversity, erosion

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Food or Fuel?

• Some Price Induced Competition may occur
• Biofuel Production from Edible Crops is limited
  anyway
• Conflict can be avoided by Clever Choice of
  Feedstock
• MSW and Agricultural Residues
• High Yield (Perennial) Crops
• Increased Agricultural Productivity and More
  Efficient Conversion Processes, will free up
  Land for Food, Feed and Fuel
• Bio-energy will be complemented by Energy
  Efficiency and Other Renewables

Revenues from energy farming can boost
agricultural productivity and sustainable rural
development
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And then sustainability. Definitions
(desirabilities). Intergenerational. Social,
political and environmental. Trade offs and
substitutions. Growth, resilience and
stability. Markets externalities

• - Ecosystem services (biodiv, water, green space)
• - Effects on climate GHG NOx hydrology (?)
• - Contribution to climate mitigation (CO2
  fixation and biofuels)

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Agriculture in a changing world

• Demand-driven chains are becoming predominant
• Multiformity and differences in interests between
  sectors is becoming more accepted
• Knowledge and insights in basic processes are
  becoming predominant

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• A bio-based economy? Lets speculate
• Biotechnology for (new) chemicals and materials
  at least in processing steps
• Eco-efficient use of renewable resources as raw
  materials for the industry
• Bio- energy (ethanol derived from
  lingo-cellulose, little starch or oil)
• Rural bio-refineries will replace port-based oil
  refineries
• Recognition of ecological services of agriculture
  
• Strong links between research, industry,
  agriculture and civil society

And after 2030?
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Arcimboldo
We are what we eat and what we produce