The MJO and Ocean Chlorophyll

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US CLIVAR MJO WORKING GROUP
Duane Waliser, co-chair Wanqui Wang Ken
Sperber, co-chair Chidong Zhang Siegfried
Schubert 2-Yr Lifetime Mitch Moncrieff Klaus
Weickmann April 2006-gt Eric Maloney Bin Wang
Leo Donner Additional/International F.
Vitart, S. Woolnough, H. Hendon, W. Higgins, J.
Gottschalck, W. Stern International CLIVAR
Support

• Terms of Reference
• Develop a set of metrics to be used for assessing
  MJO simulation fidelity and forecast skill.
• Develop and coordinate model simulation and
  prediction experiments, in conjunction with
  model-data comparisons, which are designed to
  better understand the MJO and improve our model
  representations and forecasts of the MJO.
• Raise awareness of the potential utility of
  subseasonal and MJO forecasts in the context of
  the seamless suite of predictions.
• Help to coordinate MJO-related activities between
  national and international agencies and
  associated programmatic activities.
• Provide guidance to US CLIVAR and Interagency
  Group (IAG) on where additional modeling,
  analysis or observational resources are needed.

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US CLIVAR MJO WORKING GROUP

• Near-Term Goals ( 1 YEAR)
• Develop (w/ C. Stephens) MJO WG Web Site.
• Metrics for Assessing/Diagnosing Model
  Simulations of the MJO.
• Prediction Targets and Metrics for MJO Forecasts.
• Using the Above, Develop an Experimental/
  Diagnostics Theme for Modeling/Predicting the MJO
  in Conjunction With a Workshop.

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US CLIVAR MJO WORKING GROUP
Time Line of Activities
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Web Site Resources
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Web Site Resources
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MJO Weather-Climate Theme Pages
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Web Site Resources
Expected Additions Extreme Precip Events Asian
Monsoon N. American Monsoon Australian
Monsoon Mid-Lat Weather Forecast Skill Angular
Momentum (LOD) Africa Impacts
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Web Site Resources
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MJO Simulation Metrics
Diagnostic Measures / Metrics Based on
Observations for Assessing - and Possibly
Diagnosing - Model Simulation Fidelity of the MJO

• Observations Satellite and/or Global Reanalysis
  Fields
• Satellite OLR, CMAP, TRMM, Surface Flux Products
• NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40, JRA-25
• Basic Quantities OLR, Precip, U850, U200
• Higher Level 3D structures, Surface Fluxes,
  Diabatic Terms
• Simple / Novice Measures -gt Complex / Expert
  Measures
• Simple Variance Maps, Spectra, EOFs of Basic
  Quantities
• Higher Level Wave-Freq, Combined EOF,
  Life-Cycle Composites
• Fluxes, Diabatic Terms, Vertical Structure
• Mean States and Interannual Variability
• Dissemination
• Post calculated metrics from observations on web
  site, including likely the data in its
  final/metric form and maybe example code where
  possible.
• Apply to a couple models and include results on
  web site.
• Journal Article?
• Apply to models for presentation/discussion at
  proposed workshop.

Expect? to be here by Dec
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MJO Forecast Metrics
Metrics to Assess in Common Terms MJO Forecast
Skill/Predictability and Prediction Targets
Focused on Users and Applications

• Similar Considerations as with Simulations
  Metrics
• Connect to the Simulation Metrics As Much as
  Possible
• Real-time Constraints Introduce Challenges in
  Identifying the MJO
• Less Groundwork to Rely On - Will Need to Entrain
  Operational Weather and Seasonal Forecast
  Expertise.
• Dissemination - Similar to Simulation Metrics

Expect? to be here by Next Summer
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Proposed Workshop Theme
New Thinking, Tools Resources for Assessing
Improving the MJO

• New Thinking
• Multi-scale structure, Emphasis on Vertical
  Structure Analysis, Utility of Forecast
  Framework, A Bridge Between Weather-Climate
• New Tools Resources
• New Era of Satellite Observations, GOOS/IO Array,
  Multi-Scale Modeling.
• Principle Focus Areas
• ----gt Metrics Application Vertical Structure -gt
• -gt Experimental Framework for Multi-Scale Models
  ---gt
• -gt Experimental Framework for Forecast
  Experiments ---gt

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US CLIVAR MJO WORKING GROUP
Time Line of Activities