Large MidContinent Earthquakes are a Thing of the Past

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Large Mid-Continent Earthquakes are a Thing of
the Past The Facies Proxy Record of Holocene
Deformation Events in the New Madrid Seismic Zone
Courtesy of the Mississippi River John
Holbrook University of Texas at Arlington Sam
Teeters, Craig Cox, Clayton Sneed, Jason Perez,
and Eric Stevenson Southeast Missouri State
University Whitney Autin SUNY Brockport Tammy
Rittenour and Ron Goble University of
Nebraska Steve Marshak University of
Illinois Supported by the Petroleum Research Fund
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NMSZ
Channel Stages/Meander Belts
Mississippi R.
0
0
2000
1
4000
2
6000
3
Years Before Present
8000
4
5
10000
6
12000
14000
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The Mississippi Embayment Model and Earthquakes
1974-1992 of the New Madrid Seismic Zone
(St. Louis University)
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New Madrid Earthquakes 12/16/1811
M8.1 12/16/1811 M7.2 1/23/1812 M7.8 2/7/1812
M8.0
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Primary Effects of The New Madrid Earthquakes
Landslides
Surface Warping
Ground Rupture
Liquefaction
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(USGS, 1998)
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Record of 1811/1812 Earthquakes
(USGS, 1998)
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(No Transcript)
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Some River Responses to Deformation
(Holbrook and Schumm, 1999)
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Purpose Evaluate the facies proxy record of
deformation history and
earthquake hazard in the New Madrid seismic
zone Using
Refined mapping of Mississippi River Holocene
sediments
Refined chronology of Mississippi River events
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Allostratigraphy
(NACSN, 1981)
(Allounits of the Colorado River, Tx, Blum, 1994)
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Allostratigraphic Units? Hypothesis Maps?
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Hypothesis Maps (Resources)
Remote Sensing Data (satellite, air photos)
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Hypothesis Maps (Resources)

• Remote Sensing Data (satellite, air photos)
• Existing Maps (Saucier, 1994, Soil Survey,
  topos, etc.)

Hypothesis Map (Saucier, 1994)
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Hypothesis Testing (Resources)

• Remote Sensing Data (satellite, air photos)
• Existing Maps (Saucier, 1994, Soil Survey,
  topos, etc.)
• Field Sampling (Augers, Soil Probe)

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Active Channel Fill Facies
Passive Channel Fill Facies
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Bar-Top Facies
Mud Veneer
Levee
Levee
Point Bar
Point Bar
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Splay Deposits
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Hypothesis Testing (Resources)

• Remote Sensing Data (satellite, air photos)
• Existing Maps (Saucier, 1994, Soil Survey,
  topos, etc.)
• Field Sampling (Augers, Soil Probe)
• Relative age (Soils, Cross-cutting
• relationships)

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Hypothesis Testing (Resources)

• Remote Sensing Data (satellite, air photos)
• Existing Maps (Saucier, 1994, Soil Survey,
• topos, etc.)
• Field Sampling (Augers, Soil Probe)
• Relative age (Soils, Cross-cutting
  relationships)
• Dating (C14 and OSL)

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Passive Channel Fill Facies
RC Dating Strategy
Mud Veneer
Levee
Point Bar
Active Channel Fill Facies
(Tornqvist and Van Dijk, 1993)
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OSL Sample Strategy
OSL Sample
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Mississippi River Holocene Strata, New Madrid
Seismic Zone
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Sandblow Distribution
Historic New Madrid Earthquakes AD1811/1812 Appr
ox. AD1450 Liquefaction (Tuttle, et al.,
19981999) Scarp Deformation (Russ, 1982
Kelson, et al., 1996) Approx. AD900 Liquefaction
Features (Saucier, 1991 Tuttle, et al.,
19981999) Scarp Deformation (Russ, 1982
Kelson, et al., 1996) Pre 900AD Pre
AD900 Liquefaction Features (Potentially three
Saucier, 1991 Tuttle, et al., 1999)
1811/1812
AD1450
AD900
AD300?
(Atkinson, et al., 2000)
Reelfoot Scarp
Scarp Deformation 8/9m Post AD900, but 15m Post
7000BC (Van Arsdale, 2000) No uplift,
1000BC-AD900 (Guccione, et al., 2001)
(Van Arsdale, 1997)
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• Historic New Madrid
• Earthquakes
• 1811/1812
• Approx. 1450AD
• Liquefaction (Tuttle, et al., 19981999)
• Scarp Deformation (Russ, 1982 Kelson, et al.,
  1996)
• Approx. 900AD
• Liquefaction Features (Saucier, 1991 Tuttle, et
• al., 19981999)
• Scarp Deformation (Russ, 1982 Kelson, et al.,
  1996)
• Pre 900AD
• Liquefaction Features (Potentially three
  Saucier,
• 1991 Tuttle, et al., 1999)

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• Historic New Madrid
• Earthquakes
• 1811/1812
• Approx. 1450AD
• Liquefaction (Tuttle, et al., 19981999)
• Scarp Deformation (Russ, 1982
• Kelson, et al., 1996)
• Approx. 900AD
• Liquefaction Features (Saucier, 1991
• Tuttle, et al., 19981999)
• Scarp Deformation (Russ, 1982
• Kelson, et al., 1996)
• Pre 900AD
• Liquefaction Features (Potentially three
• Saucier, 1991 Tuttle, et al., 1999)

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(No Transcript)
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• Historic New Madrid
• Earthquakes
• 1811/1812
• Approx. 1450AD
• Liquefaction (Tuttle, et al., 19981999)
• Scarp Deformation (Russ, 1982 Kelson, et al.,
  1996)
• Approx. 900AD
• Liquefaction Features (Saucier, 1991 Tuttle, et
• al., 19981999)
• Scarp Deformation (Russ, 1982 Kelson, et al.,
  1996)
• Pre 900AD
• Liquefaction Features (Potentially three
  Saucier,
• 1991 Tuttle, et al., 1999)

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(No Transcript)
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Reelfoot Fault Scarp
Levee
OSL 3300BP
RC 2400BP
RC 2800BP
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Summary

• Mississippi River deposits in the New Madrid
  seismic zone record at least two tectonically
  driven cycles of meandering-straightening-avulsion
  during the Holocene.
• Facies proxy data support a high probability for
  at least two major seismic events prior to AD900,
  and provide evidence that NMSZ seismicity extends
  back to at least the middle Holocene

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Implications

• Detailed mapping and targeted dating provide the
  first firm evidence for the theorized Pleistocene
  Holocene braided meandering transition in the
  lower Mississippi Valley.
• Facies studies in Holocene strata of the
  Mississippi River provide initial supporting
  evidence for Holocene/millennial-scale temporal
  clustering of co-seismic slip on New Madrid
  faults.
• Temporal clustering on New Madrid faults opens
  the possibility for violent and unexpected slip
  on otherwise placid Mid-continent faults.

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Channel Stages/Meander Belts
Mississippi R.
0
0
2000
1
4000
2
6000
3
Years Before Present
8000
4
5
10000
6
12000
14000
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Mississippi Valley Allounits Saucier, 1994
RC 6300BP
OSL 7700BP
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Mississippi Valley Inhabitance Stages
Formative
RC AD1128 OSL AD1050
3.5K BP
OSL 4200BP
Archaic
RC AD914
RC AD1156
RC 6300BP
OSL 3300BP
OSL 7700BP
RC 2400BP
RC 2800BP
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Implications

• Detailed mapping and targeted dating provide the
  first firm evidence for the theorized Pleistocene
  Holocene braided meandering transition in the
  lower Mississippi Valley.
• Facies studies in Holocene strata of the
  Mississippi River provide initial supporting
  evidence for Holocene/millennial-scale temporal
  clustering of co-seismic slip on New Madrid
  faults.
• Temporal clustering on New Madrid faults opens
  the possibility for violent and unexpected slip
  on otherwise placid Mid-continent faults.

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Displacement Rates, Reelfoot Fault Van Arsdale
(2000) K-Recent
.0009mm/yr Paleocene (Midway Group)
.002mm/yr Neogene (Wilcox - Pre-Holocene)
.0003mm/yr Holocene
1.8mm/yr 2400BP Recent
4.4mm/yr AD900 Recent
6.2
mm/yr Instantaneous
2 - 4 m/event
(Mihills and Van Arsdale, 1999)
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Hindu Kush, Afghanistan
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Cooter Crevasse Splay, Missouri
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Displacement Rates, Reelfoot Fault Van Arsdale
(2000) K-Recent
.0009mm/yr Paleocene (Midway Group)
.002mm/yr Neogene (Wilcox - Pre-Holocene)
.0003mm/yr Holocene
1.8mm/yr 2400BP Recent
4.4mm/yr AD900 Recent
6.2
mm/yr Instantaneous
2 - 4 m/event
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Recurrence Interval New Madrid Earthquakes
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Implications

• Detailed mapping and targeted dating provide the
  first firm evidence for the theorized Pleistocene
  Holocene braided meandering transition in the
  lower Mississippi Valley.
• Facies studies in Holocene strata of the
  Mississippi River provide initial supporting
  evidence for pan-Holocene/millennial-scale
  temporal clustering of co-seismic slip on New
  Madrid faults.
• Temporal clustering on New Madrid faults opens
  the possibility for violent and unexpected slip
  on otherwise placid Mid-continent faults.

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Slip Clusters by Fault Interaction and Stress
Transfer
(Chery, et al., 2001)
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Wabash Valley Fault Zone
Structures of the Mid-Continent
Commerce Fault Zone
SE Reelfoot Rift Margin
NMSZ
(Schwalb, 1982)
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Wabash Valley Fault Zone
Commerce Fault Zone
SE Reelfoot Rift Margin
NMSZ
(Schwalb, 1982)
(Obermeier, 1998)
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Wabash Valley Fault Zone
(Harrison, et al., 1999)
Commerce Fault Zone
SE Reelfoot Rift Margin
NMSZ
(Schwalb, 1982)
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Wabash Valley Fault Zone
(Cox, et al.,2001)
Commerce Fault Zone
SE Reelfoot Rift Margin
NMSZ
(Schwalb, 1982)
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When?
(Newman, et, al., 1999)