What Does the Future Hold for Advanced Technologies

1
What Does the Future Hold for Advanced
Technologies?

• John German
• American Honda Motor Co., Inc.
• Advanced Powertrain Forum
• August 5, 2005

2
3 Issues for the Future Automobile
Energy Supply Demand Sustainability
Climate Change
Urban Air Quality
3
Transportations Social Issues
Key Issues
Energy Sustainability
Social Concerns
Climate Change
Air Pollution
4
Honda is Committed to Clean and Efficient
Gasoline Vehicles

• Technically advanced F.E. leading models in the
  market
• Popular mass-market models with continual
  efficiency improvement
• Highest CAFE of major OEMs

5
Hondas Environmental Leadership
1975Civic CVCC1st to meet 70s Clean Air
Act, without a catalyst
1986Civic CRX-HF 1st to top 50-mpg mark
1990VTEC engine introduced
Seemingly-incompatibleachievement of -- 1.
Strong performance2. Low emissions3. High fuel
economy
6
Hondas Power Train Roadmap
FCV
Hydrogen fueled FCV
Alternative Fuel Vehicle

Improvement of ICE
Efficiency / CO2 Reduction
I. C. Engine Technologies
Accord I M A
Civic IMA
I M A
Integrated Motor Assist
CNG
INSIGHT
i-DSI
C V T
i-VTEC
VTEC-E
1990
2000
2010
2020
7
Hondas Building Blocks for the Future

• Future Building Block
• LEV, ULEV, SULEV Leadership
• Infrastructure is perfect
• Reasonable cost
• Catalyst technology

8
Hondas Building Blocks for the Future
9
Hondas Future Dream

• Built on Core Honda Technologies
• EV and HEV vehicle know-how
• Gaseous Fuel know-how
• Catalyst know-how
• Infrastructure innovation
• Technology innovation (Ultra-Cap)

10
Conventional Technology
11
Honda VTEC Combustion

(Variable valve Timing and lift, Electronically
Controlled)

• HIGHER EFFICIENCY
• LOWER EMISSIONS
• GREATER PERFORMANCE

Application
50

91
95
03
12
Variable Cylinder Management
Accel
6 Cylinder operation
Cruise
3 Cylinder operation
Decel
Vehicle speed
13
Honda Announced Improvements

• 2006 Civic VTEC
• Delays intake valve closure timing during
  cruising and other low-load conditions
• Throttle-by-wire used for larger throttle opening
  and a major reduction in pumping loss
• Switches valve timing for excellent acceleration
• Advanced VTEC
• Continuously variable intake valve timing and
  lift
• 13 efficiency (vs. 2005 i-VTEC engine
• Advanced VCM
• Increased flexibility to expand range of driving
  conditions
• Improved active control engine mounts
• 11 efficiency (vs. 2005 Honda V-6 engine)

14
Transmission Advances
Computer controls are enabling a variety of
improved transmission designs

• Dual-clutch automated manual
• Smooth shifting and potentially cheaper
• But launch concerns (no torque converter), huge
  investment
• Continuously Variable Transmission (CVT)
• Excellent city efficiency and extremely smooth
• Can deliver steady-state engine speeds to
  facilitate HCCI
• But torque limited, highway efficiency lower
  (belt friction), huge investment
• Improved shift points and lock-up strategies
• Low investment
• Lapillier 6-speed automatic

Not yet clear which is most cost-effective all
may co-exist
15
Incremental FE Technology

• Engine technology
• High specific output
• (including 4 valve/cylinder)
• Variable valve timing/lift
• Cylinder deactivation
• Direct injection
• Precise air/fuel metering
• Transmission efficiency
• 5/6 speed-AT/6-speed MT
• CVT
• Dual-clutch automated MT
• Reduced losses
• Lightweight materials
• Low drag coefficient
• Low resistance tires
• Lower accessory losses

• Cost and value issue
• These technologies are continuously being
  incorporated into vehicles.
• However, consumers value other attributes more
  highly, such as performance, safety, utility, and
  luxury.
• Putting in technologies just to improve fuel
  economy may not be valued by customers.

Fuel Economy Improvement - ??? Depends on how
much is already incorporated into fleet and
synergies (or lack of synergy) between
technologies
16
Worldwide Fuel Control

• On a systems basis, good fuel is needed to enable
  many technologies
• Growing countries, such as India and China, need
  to improve fuel quality
• Sulfur
• Heavy metals
• Aromatics
• Deposit additives
• etc

17
Diesels
18
Comparison Between U.S. Europe
Correlation with fuel price R20.61
Source US Department of Energy Report, October
2003 Association of European Automobile
Manufacturers, April 2003 Note All data valid
through December 2002
Diesel emission standards less stringent than
gasoline in Europe
19
Diesel Market Potential in US

• Diesels good for towing and highway efficiency
• But hybrids get better fuel economy in city
  driving
• Diesels are currently cheaper than hybrids, but
  are not cheap
• 1500 for 4-cyl., 2000-3000 for V-8
• Tier 2 emission standards will add significant
  cost
• Less convenient service stations (only 20
  carry diesel)
• Will take time for public to recognize
  improvements in noise, vibration, smell,
  starting, and emissions
• Plus pickup customers want a tough diesel, not
  a wimpy quiet one
• Must compete with improved gasoline engines and
  hybrids
• Europe refineries already shipping unwanted
  gasoline to US
• With continued fleet turnover to diesel in
  Europe, who will buy gasoline if US also shifts
  to diesels?

20
Hybrids
21
Hybrid Vehicles
Civic Hybrid
Electric Motor
CVT
Efficient hybrid engine
Intelligent Power Unit (IPU)
22
Integrated Motor Assist Hybrid
Parallel - Type
Motor / Generator

• Relatively Simple, Lightweight Compact
• Efficient in City and Highway driving

Engine
Transmission
Battery
Inverter
23
Honda HEV Technology Evolution
1999
2002
2004
"World Best Efficiency
High volume compact car
Performance efficiency

• Fuel Economy No.1

• First optional hybrid powertrain

• First V6 hybrid

• Hybrid vehicle for personal use

• Mainstream compact

• Mainstream midsize

• 255 horsepower better than V6

• i-DSI IMA system

• VTEC IMA system

• Innovative Sedan Package

• City 29, hwy 37 mpg (same as Civic class)

• Light aluminum body

• World best aerodynamic design

24
Powerplant

• Parallel-Type Hybrid System
• Simple, Lightweight Compact
• Efficient in City and Highway driving

25
Engine and Motor Output Characteristics
CIVIC HYBRID
High Efficiency, High Torque Electric Motor
(1.3L Engine only)
26
Attractive Hybrid Features
Integrated Electric Motor
Fuel Savings!
Low Operating Cost Best Idle
Quality Superior Driving Range Pride of
Ownership
Beats any Luxury Car!
Fewer Trips to the Station!
Social Benefits!
27
Alternative Fuels
28
Hondas Advanced CNG Technology
Compact Cars - CO2 ComparisonsWellhead-to-Wheel

• Civic GX Values
• Range 200 miles
• CO2 reduction 20
• Performance Gasoline
• Near-Zero Emissions
• Proven Honda DQR
• Satisfied customers

-25
400
353
-11
306
300
264
CO2 emission
236
200
100
0
Civic Hybrid
Civic Gasoline
Jetta Diesel
Civic CNG
29
Infrastructure Innovations
NGVs
Fleet Consumer
Buses, Heavy Duty
Public Fast Fill Infrastructure Network
Fleet
Forklifts
Home Refueling
Private Fleet Refueling
30
Development History of Honda FC Stack
80s
99
00
01
02
03
04
FCX-V2
FCX-V3
Evolves to the next generation
Improved performance and reliability
2001
Next-generation Honda FC Stack released
1999
Start of RD on fuel cell basic technology
Compact Excellent performance Superb durability
High-pressure hydrogen tank on a pure
hydrogen-fueled FCX-V3
Methanol-reforming fueled fuel cell stack on
FCX-V2
Series of public road tests as part of
CaFCP
2005 model launch
31
Output density of Honda FC stack
Compact High output
32
FCX Equipped with Honda Fuel Cell STACK
Spring 04 confirmation in California, and fall 04
in New York Japan testing started fall 03 First
delivery to an individual customer in July 2005
Environmental adaptability
Low/high temperature
Fuel efficiency
Performance
Improved acceleration performance
Improved energy efficiency
33
Home Energy Station
Heat
Fuel cell

Electricity
Inverter
Natural gas
Reform
Refine
Hydrogen
Compress
Storage tank
Reformated Gas Home Refueling with Co-generation
Cooperative development with Plug Power
34
Fuel Cells The Holy Grail

• Challenges
• Packaging, size, weight
• Cost
• Waste heat rejection
• Air supply ? Compressor
• Cold temperature operation
• On-board hydrogen storage
• Hydrogen infrastructure

• Advantages
• Very high fuel conversion efficiencies
• Greatly reduced heat loss
• Virtually zero emissions
• Quiet
• Reliable and long lifetime
• Low maintenance
• Wide range of applications in addition to vehicles

35
System Comparison
36
Comparison of CO2 Emissions
JAPAN 10-15 mode
Tank to Wheels
Well to Tank
FE base in 2010
16km/L
(1250kg)
20km/L
CIVIC (VTEC-E)
23km/L
FIT (i-DSI)
Improvement of Gasoline Vehicle
Oil Base
29km/L
CIVIC IMA
Diesel Engine
Gasoline Reform. FCV
CIVIC CNG
Natural Gas Base
Methanol Reform. FCV
Renewable Energy
0
Hydrogen FCV
0
50
100
150
CO2 emissions g/km
Hondas Estimate
37
Current Evaluation of Power Plant Technologies
Social Demand
Customer Demand
Package
Technology

Infra-
Efficiency
Tailpipe
Alt. Fuel
Cost
(Volume, Wt., features)
structure
Emissions
(CO2)
?
?
?
?

?
Gasoline
Gasoline
?
?
?
?

?
Hybrid
?
?
?
?
?

Diesel
(range)
? w/ home refueling
(tank)
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
-
Nat Gas
(inc. range)
?
?
?



H2 Fuel Cell
?
?
?

Excellent
Good
Marginal
No contribution or not acceptable
38
Development History of Honda Hybrids
00 Insight
03 Civic IMA
05 Accord IMA
06 Civic IMA
High density coil windings High-performance
magnets 15 kW, same size
Internal magnet resolver pickup, 12kW
also asymmetric windings 30 torque
60 mm thick, 10kW
Battery output power increased 30 158v Improved
cooling
Volume 10, weight 17 Power 20
NiMH, 144v, 35 kg
Volume 30, weight 6
Inverter integrated with motor ECU
Integrated cooling 32 weight, -20 size. Also
more efficient inverter
Integrated inverter, condenser, heat sink 13
weight, -57 size
Air cooled
39
Hybrid Synergies

• More efficient electric pumps and compressors
• Beltless engine
• Extend operating windows for Atkinson cycle and
  cylinder deactivation
• Provide quasi-steady-state load conditions for
  HCCI/CAI operation (especially with CVT)
• E-turbo
• High electric power supercharger boost
• When power is not needed, use exhaust energy to
  drive e-turbo and recharge battery

40
Potential Operating Modes
Assumes camless valve actuation and e-turbo
CAI Controlled Auto Ignition
41
Consumer Features

• Plenty of electric power to do anything
• On-board electric generator
• Construction, emergency power
• Individual climate-controlled seats
• Power everything
• Automatic load leveling and shock resistance
• Multiple video displays and high power sound
• Safety features cameras, heads-up displays
• Stealth operation (military, police, crooks)
• No limit to the imagination

42
Mid-Term Evaluation of Hybrids vs. Diesels
Social Demand
Customer Demand
Package
Technology

Infra-
Efficiency
Tailpipe
Alt. Fuel
Cost
(Volume, Wt., features)
structure
Emissions
(CO2)
?
?
?
?

?
Gasoline
Gasoline
?
?
?
?

?
?
-
Hybrid
?
?
?
?
?
?
?

?
-
-
-
Diesel
Hybrid Cost down Synergies customer features
Diesel Emissions down, but cost up Diesel shift
? cheap gasoline
Diesels in wide-open rural areas value highway
FE and towing Hybrids everywhere else? better
city FE plus electric features
No contribution or not acceptable
?
?
?

Excellent
Good
Marginal
43
Technology Conclusions

• Challenge is customers low value of fuel economy
  
• Real cost of driving very low
• Performance, utility, comfort, safety valued more
  highly
• Most only consider fuel savings during ownership
  period
• Hybrid technology is progressing rapidly
• Costs coming down
• Synergies with other technologies developing
• Consumer features will develop
• Crystal ball unclear
• Improved conventional engines keep raising the
  bar
• Fuel cells the endgame, but timing unclear (not
  near term)
• CNG may appeal to a segment who dislikes
  refueling
• Diesels for rural areas, hybrids for urban?
• Multiple transmission designs likely

44
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45
Barriers to Achieving Potential Fuel Economy
Increases in Cars and Light Trucks

• Tradeoff with other attributes
• Declining fuel cost
• Consumers versus society

46
CAFE History
Historical combined car and light truck CAFE

• Since 1987
• Car CAFE up 0.9 mpg, light truck CAFE down 0.8
  mpg
• LDT market share increased from 28 to 48
• Combined CAFE decreased by 1.5 mpg

47
Effect of Attribute Tradeoffs - Cars
Car Data from EPAs 2003 FE Trends Report
Fuel efficiency has increased by about 1.5 per
year since 1987 However, this has all been used
to increase other attributes more highly valued
by the customer, such as performance, comfort,
utility, and safety
48
Effect of Attribute Tradeoffs - LDT
Light Truck Data from EPAs 2003 FE Trends Report
Fuel efficiency has increased by about 1.9 per
year since 1987 However, this has all been used
to increase other attributes more highly valued
by the customer, such as performance, comfort,
utility, and safety
49
Real Gasoline Price
June 2004
50
Fleet Fuel Economy
51
Gasoline Cost per Mile
52
Real Fuel Cost - of Disposable Income
Per Capita Disposable Income from BEA, Table 2.1,
Personal Income and It's Disposition
53
Willingness to Pay for FE

• J.D. Power Hybrid Vehicle Acceptance Study
• March 6, 2002 Press Release
• Consumer interest in hybrid vehicles increases as
  gasoline prices rise
• 30 of buyers would definitely consider -
  another 30 indicate a strong consideration
• Of these, 1/3 would buy even if fuel cost savings
  during their ownership period would be less than
  the extra cost of the hybrid option

2/3 would not pay more than fuel savings during
ownership period
54
Customer Value of Hybrid Fuel Savings (Savings
for the first 50,000 miles _at_ U.S.1.80/gallon)
Hybrid fuel economy increase
Small car
Midsize car
Large truck
34 mpg baseline
23 mpg baseline
14 mpg baseline
441 756 1,176
652 1,118 1,739
1,071 1,837 2,857
20 40 80
J.D.Power survey on hybrids found that Consumers
indicate a willingness to pay more 1,000 to
1,500 for a hybrid powertrain