LATENT DEMAND FORECAST MODEL FOR COLUMBUS PEDESTRIAN THOROUGHFARE PLAN

1
LATENT DEMAND FORECAST MODEL FOR COLUMBUS
PEDESTRIAN THOROUGHFARE PLAN

• The Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission
• The 11th TRB National Transportation Planning
  Applications Conference
• May 9, 2007

2
Acknowledgements

• City of Columbus
• Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG)
• Central Ohio Transit Authority

3
Outline

• Columbus Pedestrian Thoroughfare Plan
• Review of MAG Latent Demand Model
• MORPCs Modification
• Results
• Conclusions

4
Outline

• Columbus Pedestrian Thoroughfare Plan
• Review of MAG Latent Demand Model
• MORPCs Modification
• Results
• Conclusions

5
Pedestrian Thoroughfare Plan

• Identify major pedestrian network
• Recognize pedestrian travel needs
• Promote pedestrian activities

6
Outline

• Columbus Pedestrian Thoroughfare Plan
• Review of MAG Latent Demand Model
• MORPCs Modification
• Results
• Conclusions

7
Latent Demand ModelMaricopa Association of
Governments (MAG)

• Gravity-based Model
• Non-linked vs. Linked
• Latent Demand Score (LDS) 0100
• Relative levels of potential pedestrian travel
  demand among a given network

8
Gravity-based Model

• Both ends of walk trips
• Attraction
• Production

A
9
Gravity-based Model (Contd)
Distance matters
Source MAG Pedestrian 2000-Technical Appendix,
Dec 1999
10
Gravity-based Model (Contd)

• Spatial queries
• Buffer

A
11
Gravity-based Model (Contd)

• Attractor-base queries
• Segment-based queries

12
Gravity-based Model (Contd)

• Attractor-base queries
• Segment-based queries

13
Non-linked vs. Linked

• Non-linked trips entire trip made by foot
• Work (college/University)
• Shopping and Errands
• School
• Recreational
• Linked trips partial trip made by foot (most of
  the trip made by auto/other motorized modes)

14
Latent Demand Score

• LDS - normalization 0 100
• Non-linked
• Linked
• Combine non-linked and linked trips
• Composite LDSMAX(non-linked LDS, Linked LDS)

15
Outline

• Columbus Pedestrian Thoroughfare Plan
• Review of MAG Latent Demand Model
• MORPCs Modification
• Results
• Conclusions

16
MORPCs Modification

• Grid System vs. TAZ
• Impact of Transit Service
• Additional Pedestrian Attractors

17
¼-mile-square Grid System

• Regional Connections

TAZ
Grid
18
Impact of Transit Service

• MAG linked pedestrian trips
• Linked LDS E/A
• Etotal employment within the buffer
• Atotal area within the buffer
• Attraction (employment) end vs. production
  (residence) end
• Auto vs. Transit

19
Impact of Transit Service (Contd)

• Revised linked pedestrian trips
• Linked LDS (P?bE)/A
• Ptotal population within the buffer
• btransit share of trips by the population
• Etotal employment within the buffer
• Atotal area within the buffer

20
Impact of Transit Service (Contd)

• Transit Share b
• Mode split information at Block Group (BG) level
  from Census 2000 SF3 data
• Mode split information at Grid level?
• Transit Service Frequency by Route at Grid level
  from Central Ohio Transit Authority (COTA)
• Stops in the Grid
• Headways

21
Impact of Transit Service (Contd)

• Transit Share b (contd)
• bM ? (f / F)
• M max. BG transit share within the entire
  region considered.
• f transit service frequency within Grid/its
  buffer.
• Fmax. transit service frequency within Grid/its
  buffer.

22
Additional Pedestrian Attractors

• Government buildings, sport arena, museum,
  libraries, theaters, etc.
• Four Categories
• Service area (local vs. regional)
• Service type (general vs. special)

23
Additional Pedestrian Attractors
Four Categories
24
Additional Pedestrian Attractors
Weight Score
25
Additional Pedestrian Attractors

• Example of weighting factor
• Library and Fairground in the buffer of a segment
  with LDS 80
• Weight score 314
• Weighting factor 1.04 (multiplicative)
• New LDS 80 ?1.04 83.2

26
Outline

• Columbus Pedestrian Thoroughfare Plan
• Review of MAG Latent Demand Model
• MORPCs Modification
• Results
• Conclusions

27
(No Transcript)
28
(No Transcript)
29
(No Transcript)
30
(No Transcript)
31
Outline

• Columbus Pedestrian Thoroughfare Plan
• Review of MAG Latent Demand Model
• MORPCs Modification
• Results
• Conclusions

32
Conclusions

• Understanding pedestrian travel demand
• Evaluating existing sidewalk system (ongoing)
• Prioritizing pedestrian facility improvements in
  a consistent way
• Future work refine methodologies and update the
  results periodically

33
Contacts

• Ahmad Al-Akhras alakhras_at_morpc.org
• Chris Gawronski cgawronski_at_morpc.org
• Anthony Hull ahull_at_morpc.org
• Zhuojun Jiang zjiang_at_morpc.org

34
Questions ? Please use the Microphone.
34