Kirk Lesh UCSB Economic Forecast Project

1
Kirk Lesh UCSB Economic Forecast Project
2

Real Estate
3

• Residential Market

4
Signs of Life ?
5
(No Transcript)
6
North County Home Sales
Y-O-Y Change
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
7
(No Transcript)
8
(No Transcript)
9
(No Transcript)
10
(No Transcript)
11
North County Foreclosures
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
12
New Home Construction
13
(No Transcript)
14
North County New Housing Units
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
15
Signs of Life ?

• Increasing Home Sales
• Weak Economy
• Tight Lending Standards
• Low Interest Rates
• Foreclosures
• Anemic Recovery

16
Commercial Real Estate
17
(No Transcript)
18
(No Transcript)
19
Retail Market

• Retail Bankruptcies
• General Growth Partners
• Locally Owned
• Car Dealerships
• Consumer Spending

20
(No Transcript)
21
(No Transcript)
22
(No Transcript)
23
Commercial Real Estate

• Expect Pro-active Tenants
• Lease Rates Likely to Decrease
• Vacancy Rates Likely to Increase
• Expect Little Construction

24
Thank You

• Visit us at
• www.ucsb-efp.com