Potential Impact of Global Warming on Michigans Fruit Industry

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Potential Impact of Global Warming on Michigans
Fruit Industry

• Jim Nugent
• District Horticulturist

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Michigan Fruit
Plums, pears, strawberries, raspberries,
cranberries, nectarines
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Michigan Fruit Regions
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Influence of Lake Michigan

• Reduces winter injury
• Delays spring bud development
• Reduces risk of late spring frost
• Cools in summer
• Reduces risk of early fall frost

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Effect of Warming on Winter Injury

• Warmer late fall temps will delay onset of winter
  acclimation
• Warmer temps will reduce cold hardiness
• Question Will cold events in early and mid
  winter continue?
• Most prone to winter injury wine grapes, peaches
  sweet cherries

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Effect of Warmer Springs on Fruit Buds

• Fruit buds will become susceptible to cold injury
  earlier in the spring
• Question Will the probability of late spring
  frosts be reduced at a rate equal to the advance
  in fruit crop development?
• Most prone to spring flower bud injury tart and
  sweet cherries, apricots

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Effect of Warmer Summers

• Transpiration increases increased water
  needs
• Possible scenarios
• Increased summer rainfall
• May offset increased transpiration loss
• Would hurt sweet cherries (cracking)
• Would increase disease pressure

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Effect of Warmer Summers Scenarios, cont.

• Equal or decreased summer rainfall increased
  drought stress
• Increased need for irrigation
• Equal or decreased disease pressure
• Equal or decreased sweet cherry cracking

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Probable Outcomes

• Most probable winner Wine grapes
• Most probable loser Tart cherries