Real Estate Trends

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Real Estate Trends
Real Estate Trends For the Hillsborough
Pasco County Markets
June 2009
The data provided has been researched from the
Greater Tampa Association of Realtors Mid-Florida
Regional Multiple Listing Service. The opinions
and forecast of future Real Estate Trends are
provided by Mario Polo.
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Where Are We Going
Where Is The Market Going?
June 2009
May numbers are in and we had a 9.4 increase in
activity compared to May 2008. Compared to 2008,
our market has shown a steady increase in units
sold. POSITIVE NEWS May home sales hit a 23
month high, according to statistics released by
the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors (GTAR).
Sales totaled 1440 for the month, the largest
number in the county since June 2007. The number
of sales reduced the available inventory of homes
for sale in the county. The current inventory of
10.61 months is the lowest since December
2006. Commentary continued on page 2
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Where Are We Going
Where Is The Market Going?
June 2009
Commentary continued from page 1 The 2009 Tax
Credit is definitely increasing sales in the
Tampa area. These are positive signs which we
will watch closely in the months ahead. P.S.
The following is a recap of the listing and sales
history from January 2004 through May 2009.
This information is provided from our Mid-Florida
Regional Multiple Listing Service and most of
these transactions occurred in Hillsborough and
Pasco Counties.
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Monthly Closed Sales
Monthly Closed Sales
June 2009
MONTHLY SALES ARE The number of closed sales
that have taken place in a particular month. This
is a strong indicator in determining the
direction of the market. The data on the
following pages suggest that 2009 will be a much
better sales year than the previous 2
years. POSITIVE NEWS May 2009 Closed Sales
were 1440 which was a 9.4 increase of May 2008
Closed Sales. Year-to-date Closed Sales have
increased by 1014 units, which reflects a 19
increase.
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Monthly Closed Sales Line
Monthly Closed Sales
Prepared by Mario Polo
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Projected Closed Sales
Projected Closed Sales
June 2009
PROJECTED CLOSED SALES At the start of 2009, I
added my projection of closed sales for 2009.
This was an addition to our previous reports. I
am somewhat pleased to report that my projections
have been exceeded by actual sales. My
Year-to-date Projections called for a 16.6
increase in closed sales through May 2009.
Actual sales closed were 19 increased over the
first five months of 2008..
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Projected Closed Sales Line Chart
Projected Closed Sales
Prepared by Mario Polo
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Average Sales Price
Average Sales Price
June 2009
GOOD NEWS Our average sales price for May 2009
was 165,425 which was an increase of 8,336 over
April 2009. Since January 2009 through May 2009,
we have been trending from a low of 157,089 to
168,071. This suggests that we have bottomed
out and values may hold at these levels.
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Average Sales Price Line
Average Sales Price
Prepared by Mario Polo
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Current Inventory
Current Inventory
June 2009
NORMAL MARKET A normal market is widely
considered to be one that has six months of homes
available for sale. Our current availability of
homes for sale is 15,273, which is 6638 more
homes available than our current monthly sales
can absorb. POSITIVE NEWS Compared to May 2008,
our Current Inventory has decreased by 4485
units. Hopefully this trend will continue. May
2009 compared to April 2009 also reflected a
decrease in current inventory of 854 units, a
5.3 decrease.
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Current Inventory Line
Current Inventory
Prepared by Mario Polo
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Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
June 2009
NORMAL MARKET As stated previously, a normal
market is considered to be one that has six
months of homes available for sale. This is
considered to be a balanced market where neither
buyer or seller has an advantage based on
available supply. POSITIVE NEWS When we compare
May 2008 to May 2009, we can see a decrease of
almost 5 months of inventory. A Huge Difference.
We expect this trend to continue in the months
ahead. When we compare May 2009 to April 2009,
our months of inventory continues to decrease.
Many would argue that inventory has been our
number one problem over the previous 3 years.
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Months of Inventory Line
Months of Inventory
Prepared by Mario Polo
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Summation
Summation
June 2009

• OVER ALL POSITIVE NEWS
• May 2009 Monthly Sales increased 9.4 compared to
  May 2008.
• Compared to May 2008, our Current Inventory has
  decreased by 4485 units.
• Months of Inventory, when compared to May 2008,
  has decreased by 4.4 months.
• 8000 Tax Credit Bill is starting to improve
  sales.
• a. The Federal Government has approved a
  program to advance the 8000 tax credit at
  closing. See attached article. http//www2.tbo.com
  /content/2009/may/13/sp-home-sales-may-get-a-push/
  
• 5. Average Sales Price increased by 5.3 when
  compared to April 2009.
• As Sales improve in 2009, all of these
  indicators, we believe, will continue to create
  further positive trends for 2009.
• Summation continued on page 14

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Summation
Summation
June 2009

• Summation continued from page 13
• The data suggests that our market will improve in
  the months ahead. We have experienced increased
  sales and the May numbers suggest that there will
  be a similar increase in sales in the months
  ahead.
• Our Financial System is still under stress
• Our new Stimulus for Home Buyers is improving
  sales for First-Time Homebuyers.
• The World Economies are struggling for answers.
• June closings will be a further indicator of how
  strong sales will be this summer.
• Short Sales and Foreclosures are still a major
  challenge to our market.
• We look forward to an exciting year in home sales
  for Tampa Bay, even though our unemployed numbers
  are still high and lenders are still being very
  restrictive with loans. Interest rates are
  increasing.

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