Report to WGSIP on VACS activities

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Report to WGSIP on VACS activities
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Tanzania Workshop

• The Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) hosted
  the Variability of the African Climate System
  (VACS) workshop from 10th to 13th July 2006 at
  the Dar Es Salaam Conference Centre in Dar Es
  Salaam, Tanzania
• The workshop was followed by a CLIVAR panel
  meeting from 13th to 15th July 2006 (sponsored by
  WMO, START International, NOAA, UKMO, Reading and
  TMA, among others)

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Outcomes

• A scientist from each NMS in southern and East
  Africa was trained on the use of CPT as well as
  scientist from operational ocean agencies in the
  region (South Africa, Angola, Namibia,
  Mozambique, Tanzania, Mauritius, Kenya)
• These operational scientists provided input into
  the evolving CLIVAR research programmes (e.g.,
  SAGRADEX) for southern and East Africa
  respectively
• Train the trainers workshop planned so that
  there is a CPT expert in each African sub-region
  (who will then disseminate CPT expertise locally
  (this person will then run own training
  workshops))
• Need was identified that better interaction is
  needed between COFs and regional institutions

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MOS tool from IRI
CPT can be introduced to students how to use
large-scale fields from global models to
downscale for their region and application
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Southern African research activity a proposal
for a regional project SAGRADEX

• Chris Reason Richard Washington

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SAGRADEXa proposed regional study for southern
Africa

• The southern Africa region is characterised by
  very tight gradients in SST, topography,
  vegetation and soil moisture, and in this
  respect, is unique in the Southern Hemisphere,
  and in Africa as a whole
• These gradients are fundamental for the regional
  climate and likely significantly modify the
  local / regional impacts of ENSO and other large
  scale climate modes over many parts of southern
  Africa
• These gradients, and the associated ones in
  rainfall, determine land use, appropriate farming
  practice and result in high bio-diversity (South
  Africa has the 3rd largest biodiversity after
  Brazil and Indonesia) but also in very sensitive
  / fragile ecosytems in a region prone to frequent
  drought and flooding events
• Models have difficulty in adequately resolving
  these gradients this hampers understanding of
  regional climate variability, seasonal
  forecasting and climate prediction efforts, and
  assessing the likely impacts of climate change
  over the region.

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Status on SAGRADEX

• Funding has been obtained from the UK Royal
  Society and the South African National Research
  Foundation to hold a workshop later this year to
  develop a White Paper for funding agencies

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Young African scientists research day

• VACS organized a Young African Scientist Research
  Day at the WCRP JSC meeting in Zanzibar in March
  2007
• A special issue in IJoC is being organised to
  publish the research presented by the YAS at the
  JSC meeting
• Review of ICSU Regional Office for Africa
  Research Programme and START PACOM (Pan-African
  Committee) AFRICANNESS proposal (Earth System
  Science in Africa)

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Indian Ocean Panel

• IOP4 was held at the SAWS to promote interaction
  with African scientist on the impacts of Indian
  Ocean variability on African climate
• Better interaction was proposed between IOP and
  WGSIP

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The dominant pattern of interannual variability
in the observed central-eastern/southern Africa
rainfall can be qualitatively reproduced in the
AGCM by using either global or Indian-Ocean-only
SSTs to drive the model
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The central-eastern/southern African dipole
pattern is not reproduced instead rainfall
anomalies are of the same sign over both southern
and much of eastern Africa
Different here
Not different here
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Largest response
Exp 3
Exp 1
Exp 2
Modelling work suggest that AGCMs are sensitive
to SSTs in the SWIO
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No ENSO, no skill!!!
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0.2887 0.3164 0.4400
0.5072 0.3734
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(No Transcript)
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Cloud bands influence southern African climate
variability during the austral summer
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UKMO collaboration

• Fully-coupled model forecasts to be included in
  SAWS multi-model system
• SAWS modellers to test forecast systems ability
  to simulate, amongst other, TTTs
• Current UKMO system to be replaced in 2009