The Long Tail

1
The Long Tail

2
A powerlaw
3
Semilog
Source Kevin Marks, Technorati
4
WTF?
Box office gross
Film rank
Source Kevin Marks, Technorati
5
Savagely truncated
Box office
Films
6
The Long Tail
7
Long Tail TV
8
Seen another way
9
History of the Long Tail

• 1890 Sears Catalog
• 1980 800 numbers
• 1990 Supermarket shelves

10
Two steps of abundance

• 1990 Explosion of variety of products.
• Now Explosion of information about products.
• You need both.

11
This isnt just about entertainment

• Google Long Tail advertisers
• eBay Long Tail hard goods
• CapitalOne Long Tail customers
• Offshoring Long Tail services

12
The economics of bits, not atoms

• Virtually unlimited capacity
• Virtually free distribution
• Custom streams, not mass markets

13
The three forces of the Long Tail
14
Connect consumers to amplify word of mouth
15
(No Transcript)
16
Six Research Projects
17
1

• How does the expansion of the tail affect the
  shape of the head?

18
The changing shape of demand?
19
(No Transcript)
20
80/20 50/50?
21
2

• Does the Long Tail have a fractal dimension?

22
Small Worlds
Minitails
Minitails
23
3

• How does price elasticity work in the Tail?
• Should prices go up (scarcity) or down
  (encouragement)? How do you know?

24
Two pricing models

• Entertainment (want)
• lower prices down the Tail
• Information (need) raise prices down the
  Tail

25
4

• Long Tail vs. Bottom of the Pyramid. Same effect
  or different?

26
Purchasing Power (US)
Global population (m)
75-100
20,000
1
2
1,500-20,000
1,500-1,750
3
1,500
4,000
4


?
27
5

• Primary Markets vs. Secondary Markets

28
Secondary markets

• Used Goods
• Gray Goods
• Overstock Goods

29
6

• The tragically neglected economics of abundance

30

• The fundamental difference between the economics
  of old media and the economics of new media is
  the difference between scarcity and abundance.
• The Long Tail is abundance.

31

• Is infinite shelf space like Moores Law or like
  steam?

32

• 1970s Waste transistors
• Now Waste storage, bandwidth

33
www.thelongtail.com