Territorial Impact Assessment

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Territorial Impact Assessment

• Moritz Lennert
• IGEAT ULB
• Open Days, October 10, 2007
• 10D32
• Territorial futures for Europe Scenarios,
  policies and co-operation

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Introduction

• Political need for evaluating potential impacts
  of policies
• Existing EIA, SEA, IA procedures ignore space
• EU territory more complex
• Territory growing concern
• Political desire for concrete tools
• Presentation
• general issues of IA
• important elements for TIA
• a prototype

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Caveat lector

• Scientific impact assessment of policies is
  impossible
• no control group
• not falsifiable
• Thank you and good bye !
• IA awareness-raising tool, not precise
  measurement
• IA should support and enhance participation and
  debate

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Approximations

• Modelling
• Ex-post correlation between cohesion spending
  and GDP growth
• Ex-ante forecasting models
• Qualitative assessments
• Delphi method
• Pool of regional experts
• Participatory stakeholder assessments
• Scenarios for policy packages

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Territorial IA

• Territorial cohesion one of the objectives of the
  EU
• Supporting a territorially differentiated
  approach to policy
• Territories focal points for incoherences of
  policies
• TIA double challenge
• How to assess impacts ?
• How to differentiate impacts territorially ?

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Elements of an ideal TIA procedure

• Feasible
• Clear definition of what to assess
• Clear definition of scale or multiscalar analysis
• Force debate and consensus on what to assess
  against What is territorial cohesion ?

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Elements of an ideal TIA procedure

• Flexibility and transparency in how to assess
• allow combination of qualitative and quantitative
  means
• avoid black box
• Force debate and consensus on what constitutes
  regional specificities
• Support understanding of which elements determine
  the results

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Issues of Territorialisation

• Over 260 NUTS2 regions and almost 1300 NUTS3
  regions, but limited data
• Significant differentiation
• The same impacts (growth of GDP, demand for
  labour force, loss of green space, etc) can have
  different meanings in different contexts

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A concrete methodology TEQUILA

• Two steps
• generic impact on each criterion (PIMc)
• territorial differentiation of this generic
  impact
• Territorial differentiation (TIMc)
• Regional vulnerability and desirability of
  impacts for each criterion (Vr,c, Dr,c)
• Policy intensity and applicability in the region
  (PIr, PAr)
• Result one impact measure per criterion, or
  weighted average of all criteria
• TIMr Sc ?c . Vr,c. Dr,c . (PIMc . PIr ). Par

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Conclusions

• Policy impact assessment necessary for rational
  policy making
• Territorial differentiation matters
• TIA should support the debate, not close it
• Nothing can replace local expertise
• Need for integrated, but practical tools that
  leave room for qualitative and local assessments
• TEQUILA is a first prototype

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Thank you !
Moritz Lennert IGEAT ULB moritz.lennert_at_ulb.ac.b
e More info http//www.espon.eu/ ESPON Project
3.2 Final Report - Volume 5 - TIA