Slovenian Coastal Observing System Convergence to forecasting

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Slovenian Coastal Observing System Convergence
to forecasting

• V. Malacic, B. Petelin B. Cermelj,
• Marine Biology Station Piran
• National Institute of Biology
• D. onc
• Faculty of Informatics,
• University of Ljubljana
• vlado.malacic_at_mbss.org
• Slovenia

http\\buoy.mbss.org www.mbss.org
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Marine Biology Station of the National Institute
of Biologylast five years
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Field campaigns ADRICOSM, ADRICOSM-EXTfour 25
h ADCP transects
LBM M. Celio C. Comici
V. Malacic, NIB-MBS
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Coastal Oceanographic Station Piran
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Information System About the state of Marine
Environment in the Gulf of Trieste (ISMO)

• INTERREG IIIA Italy-Slovenia 2000-2006

New web page, new graphic presentation of data
info, project results (genetic composition of
fish)
Interface for running the numerical model of
circulation by students via internet, display of
results of circulation modeling of the Gulf of
Trieste
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Information System About the state of Marine
Environment in the Gulf of Trieste (ISMO)

• INTERREG IIIA Italy-Slovenia 2000-2006

Electronics of controller of DAQ, softw.
instrum. Ethernet
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Connection Scheme for Buoy
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New Electronic Board
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Modeling Concept of a one-way nesting (INGV
Bologna, N. Pinardi)
AREG 5 km (INGV) ? ASHELF-1 1.5 km (INGV)
? ACOAST-2 0.5 km (NIB-MBS) ? ACOAST-1 0.25
km (OGS)
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Problem presentation during stratified season
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Model domain

ADRICOSM Project Regional project (IT, CRO, SLO),
coordinated by INGV in Bologna (N. Pinardi)
POM 3D of the Gulf of Trieste V. Malacic and B.
Petelin
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Surface fluxes of heat, momentum, E-P, river
inputs
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Evolution of the horizontally average heat flux
at the surface (model results)
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Evolution of the energy over three perpetual years
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Salinity at 1 m depthno rivers Soca (Isonzo)
ARPA Soca (Isonzo) ARSO
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Circulation inside the Gulf with and without
rivers
Surface circulation

• NO rivers February outflow similar to that one
  with rivers
• NO rivers spring two anticyclonic vortices
  along the Gulfs axis
• Rivers spring anticyclonic vortex
• NO rivers summer (June-July) circulation breaks
  in two anticyclonic vortices, which enhance the
  ouflow along the southern (Slovenian) side
• Rivers summer the anticyclonic vortex fills
  the Gulf
• NO rivers autumn outflow from the northern
  (italian) side is passing diagonally across the
  Gulf leaving it at south along the peninsula of
  Istra. This is blocked with rivers (southern
  ones)
• NO rivers in December there is a general
  surface ouflow along the Gulfs axis, more
  enhanced along the northern side.
• Rivers the diagonal flow from the southern side
  towards the northwestern side brings the surface
  water to the belt of coastal freshwater where it
  leaves the Gulf.

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Salinity at 10 m depthno rivers Soca
ARPA Soca ARSO
Petelin, B. V. Malacic
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Circulation inside the Gulf with and without
rivers
Circulation at the depth of 10 m

• NO rivers January cyclonic circulation
• NO rivers Feb-March, April-June cyclonic
  circulation in the southern part
• NO rivers summer circulation breaks in two
  anticyclonic vortices, which enhance the ouflow
  along the southern (Slovenian) side of the Gulf.
  
• Rivers June-July the anticyclonic vortex
  fills the Gulf.
• Rivers August anticyclonic circulation in the
  central part inside the Gulf when rivers are
  present
• NO rivers August-September autumn outflow
  (Istrian counter-current). Rivers the same
• NO rivers October-November diagonal outflow
  from the northern part to the southern one,
  leaving the Gulf along the peninsula Istria
  (counter-current)

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Circulation at 1 and 15 m depth
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Comparison of model results with observations
during winter
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Comparison of model results with observations
during spring
ADCP 22 Apr-30 Jun 1999 MalacicPetelin, 2001,
Phys Ocean Adriatic Sea, Kluwer
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Density across the Gulf
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Along the Gulf transect of density
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Vorticity and horizontal divergence
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1st application the LNG Terminal

• Zaule (avlje) GasNatural SDGSA
• Centre of the Gulf of Trieste Terminal Alpi
  Adriatico S.r.l.
• Common properties of both terminals
• 8 109 Sm3/year (1 atm. in 0 0C), 310 days/year
• 270 m x 110 m (GT), 23 ha (avlje)
• OPEN RACK VAPORIZERS (ORV)
• warming media sea-water 22800 m3/h (max 30400
  m3/h) (GT), 26500 m3/h (Zaule), 8 x all
  industr. municip. sewage in GT. Drop ?T5 0C at
  the end of the outfall pipe. d12 m ? v1 2,0
  m/s (GT) d21,4 m ? v2 4,5 m/s (Zaule).

PROBLEMS IN FEBRUARY ltTgt8.7 0C Tmin7.5
0CTmax10,4 0C, Univ. Trieste. (45 38 55N,
13 45 18 E, h 2 m, 1996-2001)
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vert. profiles ?T due to LNG center of the Gulf
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EU MFSTEP project (N. Pinardi) Petelin, B. V.
Malacic model run for 270 days, starting from
01/01/1999, analysis for 190 days, roughness
0.01 m, all seven constituents of SSE along the
OBL results of POM 2D (semidiurnals)
Tides over the Adriatic, semidiurnal constutuents

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MFSTEP project results of POM 2D (diurnals)
Petelin, B. V. Malacic model run for 270 days,
starting from 01/01/1999, analysis for 190 days,
roughness 0.01 m, all seven constituents of SSE
along the OBL
Diurnal constituents

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AREG tidal model with climatological circulation
- summer situation
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Sea-surface elevation and currents at 1 m
depth Spring tide 13th July 24 h cycle Neap
tide 21th July
AREG TIDAL MODEL WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL CIRCULATION
- 3rd run SUMMER SITUATION
Petelin, B. V. Malacic
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2nd application transport of medusae
Semaeostomeae Pelagiidae Pelagia noctiluca
(Försskal, 1775)
Photo T. Makovec, NIB-MBS
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• Massive outbreaks in the last two centuries
• on average at 12 year intervals in certain parts
  of the Mediterranean Sea (Goy et al. 1989)
• life history traits that favour their capability
  for high dispersal rates
• population peaks sometimes accompanied by an
  expansion outside of its usual distribution range
  
• 1977-1986 and 2004-2006 a massive presence of
  Pelagia noctiluca was recorded in the northern
  Adriatic

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Sampling sites (genetic analysis)
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Genetic analysis
Neighbour Joining tree of Pelagia noctiluca COI
haplotypes (NA North Adriatic, SA South
Adriatic, M Malta, FR France). Sequence of
Chrysaora sp. obtained from GenBank (DQ083524 ).
560bp COI (cytochrome c oxidase subunit
I) ramsak_at_mbss.org
Andreja Ramak, 2006
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Where do medusae go, where they come from?
The model of Zavatarelli Pinardi, 2003
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Where do medusae go, from where they come?
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Sensitivity analysis to initial position start
1 m depth, 1st Jan
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Population dynamics
Leslie matrix
Malej, A. Malej, M., 1990
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Coastal Oceanographic Station Piran - data
Will this synoptic situation ever be modelled
correctly?
Even if this will happen (within the EU proposal
MyOcean?), it may not improve our understanding
of the Gulf.
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Questions

• Modeling questions
• How should currents be inserted in a model of
  waves (SWAN)? Should curents be depth averaged?
  Those near the surface should have more influence
  on waves? There are counter-currents at
  semi-enclosed seas at depth with opposed
  direction than that at the surface.
• How should waves influence currents? For the
  sediment transport the superposition of bottom
  stress seems plausible. What at the sea-surface?
  The effect of Stokes drift (Proctor, Arabian
  Gulf), even more sophisticated Langmuir cells (?
  x 30-100 m, ? z 1 m)
• Should we therefore iterate between the outputs
  of waves and currents?
• Would there ever be a proper forecast of river
  outflows available for the coastal op.
  oceanography? A storm in Alps predicted on hourly
  time scale?
• In coastal areas the SST data are frequently
  spoiled (?), and could therefore not be
  assimilated in the now-casting and hind-casting.
  Are future satellite surface salinity data
  going to be influenced by coastal (land)
  meteorology as much as are the SST data?
• How should the data in one spot (automatic
  measurement devices) be applied in the
  data-assimilation procedure, not been used only
  as quality check of model results?

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Isonzo river flux A. Bussani and C. Comici
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Modelling tides in the Adriatic Sea second run

• Constant and homogenous temperature (130C) and
  salinity (38 PSU) over the whole Adriatic Sea
• Model run parameters
• Mode 3 (3-D prognostic)
• External mode time step 9 s
• Internal mode time step 900 s
• Bottom roughness length 0.01 m
• Horizontal eddy diffusivity 0.1 m2/s

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Tides POM 2D, whole Adriatic MFSTEP, ADRICOSM
projects (INGV, Bologna, N. Pinardi)
V. Malacic and B. Petelin
OBC south of the Otranto Strait
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Tides POM 2D, whole Adriatic MFSTEP, ADRICOSM
projects (INGV, Bologna, N. Pinardi)
V. Malacic and B. Petelin
Model resonance and sensitivity
model is driven at the OBL by the oscillatory SSE
of constant amplitude and a period that varies
from one model run to another. The OBC was
therefore prescribed as ? Z0cos (2?t/T), where
? is the SSE, the amplitude Z0 0.1 m, and the
period T is in the range 7 h 24 h with a step
of 1 h, and with a step of 0.1 h around local
maxima.
The amplitude Z in the port of Trieste as a
function of the amplitude Z0 of the SSE along the
OBL for the M2 (a) and K1 (b) constituent. Z0 is
different from one model run to another, in a
range between 0.002 m and 0.2 m.